šŸ—‘ļø 10 Valuable ADP Dumpster Dives

News and Dynasty, Too!

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Itā€™s May 15th and I go over some late-round gems in best ball formats, a little NFL news and we get a dynasty nugget courtesy of our friends at Dynasty League Football.

Itā€™s only May but best ball lobbies are in full-ish swing with Underdog contests dropping and filling daily. Now is a great time to take advantage of early ADP, particularly rookies, before training camp buzz swings values in different directions. Hereā€™s a look at 10 of the biggest late-round sleepers leaving Underdog drafts in Rounds 14-20.

*ADP courtesy of the 4for4 Underdog ADP tool.

Late-Round Targets

šŸ¦¬ Ray Davis, RB - Bills (ADP: RB48, 14.01) - The rookie should immediately see plenty of short-yardage work with a chance to take on a larger third-down role as 2024 progresses. Davis is the price of an RB4 with the potential for higher output.

āš”ļø Kimani Vidal, RB - Chargers (ADP: RB49, 14.04) - He does have to compete with former Ravens JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards for touches, but Dobbins is returning from an Achilles tear and Edwards was phased out of multiple contests by Baltimore last season. Vidal has the three-down skillset to compete right away and if given the chance could outproduce his 14th-round pricetag.

šŸÆ Jermaine Burton, WR - Bengals (ADP: WR72, 14.05) - Burton is a versatile receiver who landed in a fantastic spot. Itā€™s not looking like Tee Higgins will get traded anytime soon but the WR3 in a Joe Burrow-led offense has proven fruitful for fantasy purposes, at least for a handful of weeks which is best ball material.

šŸŽ–ļø Hunter Henry, TE - Patriots (ADP: TE19, 14.06) - Heā€™s not a redraft option, but Henryā€™s two-year contract indicates lead TE status in what should be an improved offense with the combo of Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye at QB. New OC Alex Van Pelt comes from a Browns offense with a lot of first-read TE targets.

šŸ§¢ Tyrone Tracy, RB - Giants (ADP: RB1, 16.01) - Devin Singletary will be the lead back in New York but hasnā€™t proven untouchable for shared volume. Tracy is the best guy behind him and with a limited sample size, is a boom-or-bust pick but where heā€™s being drafted, could return value even if given just a passing-down role at first.

šŸ Colby Parkinson, TE - Rams (ADP: TE35, 18.11) - Tyler Higbee will start 2024 on the PUP after tearing both his ACL and MCL during last yearā€™s playoffs. The former Seahawk inked a two-year deal with $15.5 million guaranteed which is starting TE money. Matthew Stafford still has some gas in the tank and for this final round price, Parkinson is worth a stab as a Ram in 2024.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Roman Wilson, WR - Steelers (ADP: WR71, 14.04)

  • Juwan Johnson, TE - Saints (ADP: TE21, 15.06)

  • Luke McCaffery, WR -Commanders (ADP: WR77, 15.09)

  • Keaton Mitchell, RB - Ravens (ADP: RB59, 16.10)

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Fantasy Sports EVO Play of the Day

This is a great spot to put the Oklahoma City Thunder in as your 1.5x multiplier on defense. Steals and blocks get you two points each, and OKC leads the NBA in both categories with 8.7 blocks and 8.4 steals per contest. The Thunder are allowing just 106.7 points per game over their last three and give you the best chance for that 5.50-point bonus for keeping Dallas under 100.

  • The official NFL schedule release happens tonight at 8:00 PM ET on NFL Network, ESPN2, or streaming on NFL+. Hereā€™s a sneak peek at every teamā€™s strength of schedule for 2024.

  • Even though you canā€™t buy Marvin Harrisonā€™s NFL jersey or play with him in Madden since the rookie hasnā€™t signed the NFLPA group licensing agreement (GLA), fans are still ready for the new era to begin.

  • Netflix is getting in the live sports streaming game with two Christmas Day NFL contests in 2024, plus more in 2025 and 2026 as part of a three-year deal with the league. Ho ho ho, NFL fans!

Anytime a new article from DLFā€™s Kev White drops, my interest is piqued. Heā€™s one of the best and smartest analysts around and has a unique way of attacking the dynasty game. He also just started a brand new series, Dynasty Archetypes,  looking at past production and play styles and how that can help us to predict the current rookie class, and more.

Hereā€™s how Kev introduces his new seriesā€¦

As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a player, based on the pastā€¦

In this new series Iā€™ll be exploring Dynasty Archetypes: a method of predicting future player fantasy production, based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage, and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based on the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.

The first article in the series focuses on the cornerstone of any successful dynasty team, the position that should be central to your strategy regardless of the stage within the dynasty cycle ā€“ quarterback. The archetypes used are relatively simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of rushing fantasy points per game (RFPPG) in relation to overall fantasy points per game (OFPPG). The parameters for the quarterback archetypes are the following: 0-10% RFPPG for Pocket Passer, 10-30% Balanced, and 30%+ Dual-Threat quarterback.

As you can tell, Kev began with the quarterback position. Hereā€™s where he uses what heā€™s learned about past production to comb through this yearā€™s rookie cropā€¦

Reviewing the data for the incoming 2024 class, the majority of archetypes land on the higher end of balanced, with the exception of Michael Penix Jr who is at the lower end. The sole dual-threat archetype belongs to Jayden Daniels, who has the highest ceiling of this yearā€™s prospects. It is worth noting the rushing output is easier in college versus weaker opposition, resulting in the potential negative trending on RFPPG scores. With this in mind, borderline archetypes are likely to drop into a different archetype, for example, Penix Jr would become a pocket passer quarterback, operating with a lower ceiling and floor than his college production.

As much as Caleb Williams is compared to modern-day greats like Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, his RFPPG is excellent, meaning a higher ceiling than expected. Drake Maye and Bo Nix both display solid numbers, with JJ McCarthy settling in as a balanced archetype. Rushing is a key catalyst to fantasy production for quarterbacks, where this yearā€™s class is excellent overall, meaning this has the potential to be one of the greatest fantasy quarterback classes of all time. It is plausible that 50% of your 12-team round one superflex rookie drafts consist of quarterbacks.

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