☢️ 4 Riskiest Players At the Top

Injury roundup and some dynasty

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
August 13, 2025

One pre-season week down, several to go! Let’s get into it!

Risk is something we all take on when playing fake football. Most people consider the upside when making selections, but few consider a player’s potential risk, particularly at the top of draft boards.

The following is a look at the players with the most inherent risk at their price heading into 2025. These guys shouldn’t be totally avoided on draft day, but my intent is to point out their lower range of outcomes rather than the chance to outperform ADP.

🦁 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Lions ( Multi-Site ADP: RB3, 4)

This is certainly no knock on Gibbs, the player, but several factors make him a risk at the top of Round 1 in 2025. First, we have a healthy David Montgomery, and when they were both on the field last season, they had an equal allocation in volume at 16.3 touches each per contest, which translated to 16.9 in half PPR scoring for Gibbs, and 15.2 for Montgomery. We have to assume some TD regression as well, considering Gibbs crossed the pylon 20 times, with eight of those coming with Monty on the shelf.

Detroit’s defense was banged up in 2024, and the team ended up in multiple shootouts, raising the output. As a whole, this offense could regress, particularly with the OC change. Gibbs should still be a solid fantasy asset, but his hefty 1.04 price tag makes him a bit risky, at least while he’s sharing that Detroit backfield.

⚒️ Christian McCaffrey, RB - 49ers (Multi-Site ADP: RB4, 7)

Unless this is your first season playing fantasy football, you know the risk here. The range of outcomes for McCaffrey is fairly vast in 2025. His ceiling just two years ago was massive, as his 22.4 fantasy points per game was, of course, RB1 output, but was also good enough as the second-highest scoring player overall behind only Josh Allen. However, multiple lower leg injuries sidelined McCaffrey last season, and he was on the field for just four contests, where he averaged just 10.1 half-PPR points per game as the RB27 in the time frame.

Coach speak screams that he’s healthy and back to his explosive self, but at age 29, the question is whether CMC can hold up for the entire season. The unknown is a scary risk at a single-digit ADP.

🐏 Puka Nacua, WR - Rams (Multi-Site ADP: WR6, 10)

After coming back from a knee injury in Week 8, Puka Nacua was the WR4 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis, so why is he a risk in Round 1? The main issue here is the presence of Davante Adams, who proved last year that he still has plenty left in the tank, posting his fifth consecutive 1000+ yard season and garnering the third most targets among WRs while a member of the Jets from Weeks 7-18.

Then there’s the issue of Matthew Stafford’s health, as he’s been dealing with an aggravated disc in his back and received an epidural for it on 8/6. Of course, the Rams say he’ll be ready for Week 1, but the QB has a lengthy history with back issues, so we have to prepare for the possibility of some balls from Jimmy Garoppolo in 2025.

For that high draft capital, give me a clear WR1 like Malik Nabers or Nico Collins.

✈️ Breece Hall, RB - Jets (ADP: RB14, 36)

Recency bias is a real thing, but not the reason Breece Hall makes the risky list in 2025. Sure, he’s coming off an RB18 performance in per-game scoring (half-PPR) after an ADP of 1.04 last year as the RB2, and has slid down to the late-third, but he still feels pricey given the situation in New York.

The arrival of Justin Fields is seemingly a good thing for the overall offense, and for now, we’ll just ignore the training camp struggles. Fields is a very much a runner and has scored 19 total TDs with his legs in his four-year NFL career. He has never supported a fantasy RB1, and only David Montgomery in 2021 posted an RB2 campaign (RB17). We also can’t ignore Braelon Allen, who had a decent snap share in his rookie year (27%) and, according to The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt, the Jets RB situation “might be more 1A-1B than 1-2".

Hall may end up alright as a third-rounder, but just know the risk is there in 2025.

  • Tyjae Spears, Titans (lower leg), was carted off the field during Preseason Week 1 and was later reported to have a high ankle sprain.

  • Jayden Reed, Packers (foot), is dealing with a foot sprain and was seen walking in a boot, but is reportedly day-to-day.

  • Rachaad White, Buccaneers (groin), left the game in the first quarter and did not return. He is considered ‘day-to-day’.

  • Rondale Moore, Vikings (knee), was carted off with a significant injury and is out for the 2025 season.

  • Alexander Mattison, Dolphins (neck), left the game after being tackled on a 21-yard pass play and did not return. Now post-surgery, the RB is out for 2025.

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We are now just a few weeks from the kickoff of the 2025 NFL season, but before the Cowboys and Super Bowl Champion Eagles get things started, there are many rookie drafts left on the calendar.

While some of the most die-hard dynasty leagues like to hold rookie draft soon after the NFL Draft in the spring, the majority are still held in the weeks leading up to the season kickoff. Fortunately for those dynasty managers, Ken Kelly has completed a huge overhaul of the Dynasty Rookie Draft Cheat Sheet. 

This is the tool you need to dominate your rookie draft. Here are a few notes on some recent changes to the cheat sheets.

  • Ashton Jeanty continues to be the 1.01 in both formats, a seemingly easy choice at the top of the draft

  • Omarion Hampton has been pushed by both Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter of late, but his spot at #2 seems pretty secure.

  • Hunter and McMillan continue to be in a dead heat to be the WR1. At this point, pick your favorite.

  • Quinshon Judkins has experienced a significant fall, all the way down to #11. He’s the ultimate high-risk, high-reward pick right now as he has some obvious legal issues to work through.

  • Tyler Warren has again overtaken Colston Loveland to be our TE1.

  • Emeka Egbuka is pushing for a spot in the top five as he continues to put together a great camp.

  • Luther Burden is pushing to be a first-rounder in conventional drafts as he also has drawn nothing but praise since arriving in Chicago.

  • Jalen Milroe has passed Tyler Shough to be our QB3. It’s hard not to get excited when you watch him play.

  • Shedeur Sanders has leapfrogged Dillon Gabriel as he put on a solid performance in the Browns opener, taking advantage of an injury to Gabriel.

  • Kyle Williams continues to rise after looking the part in Pats camp.

  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt makes his debut on the sheet. Keep tabs on this super sleeper.

  • Jaydon Blue is another late-round running back on the rise. He’s pushing for early time in Dallas.

  • Tory Horton has moved into the top 20 receivers after lighting up camp and pushing for the WR3 job in Seattle.

  • Terrance Ferguson is the biggest tight end riser, making our top-5 at the position.

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