🛑 5 Fades in the First 5 Rounds

Players to Avoid and Looking Ahead to Week 1 Streaming

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
August 29, 2023

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There’s plenty of content surrounding who to target, but deciding which players to avoid is just as important as we head into the final stretch of draft season. Here’s one player from each of the first five rounds that I’m lower on in 2023.

Round 1 - Saquon Barkley, RB - Giants (Yahoo ADP: 10.8) 

The public is drafting Barkley as the RB5 in half-PPR formats at pick 11, while at 4for4, he’s ranked as the RB7. It’s not that the NY rusher is going to bust in 2023, but he may have a tough time returning that first-round draft capital. He’s likely to lose targets to Darren Waller and possibly rookie Jalin Hyatt, and his QB Daniel Jones is always in the mix to vulture runs. Give me a true pass-catcher, particularly in any PPR format at the back end of the first round over Barkley this season.

Round 2 - Jonathan Taylor, RB - Colts (Yahoo ADP: 16.0)

Taylor is still waiting to be traded and recent reports indicate it will go all the way down to Tuesday’s deadline. With a second team possibly in the mix besides Miami, it’s tough to predict the fantasy value for the RB in 2023. He’s had zero training camp reps and could be having to learn a new offense so a second-round selection seems too high for Taylor at this point. If he slips down another round or two he’d be in consideration, but at 2.04 it’s a no for me on the 24-year-old.

Round 3 - Travis Etienne, RB - Jaguars (Yahoo ADP: 26.7)

Usage is a concern with Etienne as rookie Tank Bigsby appears to be already cutting into his volume. Bigsby had six carries to Etienne’s eight with the first team in their last game and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt compared to 4.9 by Etienne. If this does become a shared backfield, a third-round pick will be tough to return value on for the Jags RB.

Round 4 - T.J. Hockenson, TE - Vikings (Yahoo ADP: 42.0)

Unless you are in a TE premium scoring league it’s difficult to justify a fourth-round price for Hockenson. He averaged 8.6 targets per game after joining the Vikings last season but will have some more competition for volume in rookie Jordan Addison in 2023. It’s not that Hockenson is an awful pick that will lose your league, but he won’t win it for you either as there are some WRs in this range with higher ceilings that could be difference-makers. Also of note, Hock had an ear infection that affected his equilibrium during training camp and is now dealing with back stiffness that kept him out of practice. With the season drawing closer, health may be a concern.

Round 5- James Connor, RB - Cardinals (Yahoo ADP: 56.0)

The Cardinals are expected to be a very bad football team, in fact, they are currently projected to lose all 17 contests in 2023. Connor could be game-scripted out of every game if the team falls behind and if they start the season out slow, Arizona could put off the return of Kyler Murray, making things even worse for the offense. Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, and Tyler Lockett are all players I’d rather roster who available in this round.

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Some fantasy managers (including myself) like to stream several positions throughout the season, with the most popular being team defense and kicker. Since the bulk of fantasy drafts have either happened or are taking place this week through the weekend, I figured I’d share some of my favorite Week 1 options at both positions.

*Number in parenthesis is the point spread via 4for4’s NFL Betting Line Tool.

Team Defense

  • 🪺 Baltimore Ravens vs. Texans (-10)

  • 🪖 Washington Commanders vs. Cardinals (-7)

  • 🐴 Denver Broncos vs. Raiders (-4.5)

  • 😈 Minnesota Vikings vs. Buccaneers (-6.5)

Kickers

  • 🪺 Jason Myers (SEA) vs. Rams (-4.5)

  • 😈 Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Buccaneers (-6.5)

  • 🪖 Joey Slye (WAS) vs. Cardinals (-7)

  • 🐆 Brandon McManus (JAX) @ Colts (-4)

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