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🐏 Puka Nacua, WR - Rams (Multi-Site ADP: WR8, 13)
It was a historic rookie year for Nacua, as he set records in both receptions and yards on his way to a WR7 finish in half-PPR points per game. If we zoom in, Nacua had some great weeks, finishing as a fantasy WR1 in seven games, but he also had plenty of stinkers, with five contests as the WR40 or worse.
The rookie mostly hit his big ceiling when Cooper Kupp was sidelined. Kupp missed five contests in 2023, and while he wasn’t on the field, Nacua produced 36% of his 246 total fantasy points. With Kupp in the mix, the rookie’s production dipped by 5.8 half-PPR points per tilt to 13.2. That number would have been the WR14, and Nacua is leaving boards as the WR8, as early as the first round on some sites.
With Kupp healthy, it’s difficult to see a massive Year 2 jump, enough to warrant such a high pick. A more likely scenario is both Rams finishing as WR2s. Nacua is currently WR14 with Kupp the WR17 in 4for4’s rankings and he’s also nursing a knee injury which is worth monitoring.
🐬 De'Von Achane, RB- Dolphins (Multi-Site ADP: RB11, 23)
The sophomore exploded in his first season in the NFL with an RB4 campaign in half-PPR points per game, but also battled injuries and only took the field for 11 contests. Raheem Mostert is coming off an insane record-setting 8.4% TD rate with Achane not far behind at 7.9% which should come down considerably for both in 2024. They will likely cannibalize each other with another speedster in rookie Jaylen Wright also battling for carries.
While I think both guys will have decent roles in the Miami offense, Achane feels a bit pricey as the RB11 in the second round. The 22-year-old is, however, more affordable right now in ESPN and NFL.com drafts, leaving boards at spot 31.
🐂 C.J. Stroud, QB - Texans (Multi-Site ADP: QB5, 52)
Stroud is coming off an exceptional first season in the NFL, where he ended as the QB9 in both overall and fantasy points per game. In 2024, Stroud is now being selected as the QB5 as an early-fifth rounder. That’s quite the price tag for a non-mobile QB with just one NFL season under his belt. He placed within the top 5 QBs just twice all of last season and ended as a fantasy QB2 or worse seven times.
There are plenty of weapons at Stroud’s disposal in Houston, but without the addition of rushing points, he’ll need to throw at least 10 more touchdowns than the 23 he tossed in 2023 to return his current draft stock, and I’d rather take Kyler Murray for a similar price or wait for Jordan Love or Jayden Daniels.
🌊 Kenneth Walker, RB - Seahawks (Multi-Site ADP: RB17, 49)
It’s a new era in Seattle, one with no allegiances to previous players. Kenneth Walker was the RB15 and RB20 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis over the last two seasons, respectively, and struggled with efficiency, particularly in 2023. Among RBs with at least 75 attempts, Walker was 23rd in rushing EPA per carry and 42nd in both rushing yards over expected per carry and yards after the catch per carry last year.
So now we’re taking him at RB17 as part of an offense that didn't draft him and has a new OC that likes to throw the ball downfield? Plus, they also have sophomore Zach Charbonnet, who was more efficient in his limited playing time in 2023 and has pass-catching prowess. Walker’s reality is more of a low-end RB2 instead of that ceiling he’s leaving boards at currently.
Despite being carted off the field with an ankle injury on Wednesday, Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell confirmed it’s not serious for WR Jordan Addison, saying “I think he’s going to be OK”.
Speaking of the Vikings, rookie QB J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire 2024 season due to a torn meniscus.
Keep an eye on Christian Kirk who is dealing with a minor calf injury.
Hollywood Brown’s return is still TBD, as Andy Reid’s response was a simple, “We’ll see” when asked about his chances of playing in Week 1.
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