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- 💭 Biggest ADP Busts of 2023
It’s Super Wild Card Week and the field is set for the first round of the 2023/2024 postseason. There’s plenty to chat about around the league so let’s get to it. In today’s newsletter, I’ll go over some coaching vacancies and ADP busts, plus we’ll hear from Ryan McDowell at DLF on some pertinent dynasty info.
With the end of the 2023 regular season comes the inevitable firing of coaches and their staff who didn’t live up to expectations. Here’s a list of all coaches and staff who are no longer at their positions as of 1/9/24. For now, this leaves us with six HC openings in the league with several more a possibility in the coming weeks.
Firings
🪺 Arthur Smith - Falcons (HC)
🪖 Ron Rivera - Commanders (HC)
🪖 Jack Del Rio - Commanders (DC)
🪖 Brent Vieselmeyer - Commanders (DBs Coach)
🛡️ Mike Vrabel - Titans (HC)
🐈⬛ Frank Reich - Panthers (HC)
🐈⬛ Scott Fitterer - Panthers (GM)
🐈⬛ Duce Staley - Panthers (Asst HC/RBs)
🐈⬛ Josh McCown - Panthers (QBs Coach)
🦬 Ken Dorsey - Bills (OC)
🏴☠️ Josh McDaniels - Raiders (HC)
🏴☠️ Dave Ziegler - Raiders (GM)
🐆 Mike Caldwell - Jaguars (DC)
🐆 Bernie Parmalee - Jaguars (RBs coach)
⚡️ Brandon Staley - Chargers (HC)
⚡️ Tom Telesco - Chargers (GM)
🧢 Thomas McGaughey - Giants (Special Teams Coordinator)
🧢 Bobby Johnson - Giants (O-line Coach)
🍔 Matt Canada - Steelers (OC)
Resigned
🐻 Alan Williams - Bears (DC)
🧢 Wink Martindale - Giants (DC)
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So what did we do right and wrong this season? Last week I went over the five biggest productive surprises at each position compared to their ADP back in August, and this week, I’ll address the disappointments.
*All scoring (besides QB) is half-PPR points per game. ADP is based on half-PPR drafts and is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Quarterback
All five of these guys underperformed based on draft capital in 2023. Only Trevor Lawrence is likely to take a hit next season, as folks are starting to question his validity as a fantasy asset. Justin Herbert could fall slightly in ADP but will likely still be a QB1.
Running Backs
Ekeler was the biggest bust in the RB department this season, as his first-round draft capital produced low-end fantasy RB2 results. The rest of these backs were spotty in helping their teams but still underperformed their expected outcomes.
Wide Receivers
This section could be filled out with many more busts, like Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, and Jaylen Waddle, but I wanted to keep it to five in the table. This was a rough year for WRs at the top of the draft board, as 10 of the Top-24 receivers drafted finished the season at least 10 spots lower than their positional draft location.
Tight Ends
The tight end position saw a fun shift this season with some new names emerging like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride. Sadly, some of the ones we thought were going to be solid fell short.
Welcome to the first DLF Roundup. Each week, I’ll bring you a quick look at some of the dynasty happenings taking place over at Dynasty League Football.
Earlier this week, I dropped the first Monday Mocks of the season. In case you’re new to DLF or the dynasty space in general, this is a weekly article in which I share a mock draft. You probably figured that out already.
Anyway, in this first one of the 2024 offseason, I reflected on the surprisingly strong rookie class of 2023 with one final rookie mock. I also included each player’s offseason rookie draft ADP because it’s always a surprise how far players have risen (or fallen) after just one year.
With so many talented players, internally debating exactly which order they should be drafted or ranked was a serious challenge. I found the second tier of wide receivers to be the most difficult area of the two-round draft to order.
Here’s what I settled on, taken from the article…
I have to admit, I’m not all that confident in that order. What I mean here is that these five are so tightly packed that weeks, or even days from now, I could rearrange these five wideouts. Addison and Flowers had both the pedigree and production, pushing them to the top of this tier. Dell was a mid-round pick with surprising production, but also suffered multiple injuries. Combined with his diminutive size, I’m slightly concerned about him as a long-term asset. Smith-Njigba feels like a ticking time bomb. He’s going to go off, I’m just not sure when. That Seattle team could be ready to make significant changes or they could simply run it back in 2024. Finally, I am probably undervaluing Reed here, but I also had a difficult time valuing him over the other foursome here. Reed took off in the second-half of the season but that Packers offense is crowded when everyone is healthy, so there will be tons of competition for touches.
Which of these young receivers is your favorite?
Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.