🙀 Biggest ADP Surprises of 2025

Dynasty too!

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
January 15, 2026

We made it, everyone! Hopefully, your fantasy football seasons turned out as planned, and if not, there’s always next season. This newsletter will be sent once a week for now until we get to something juicy like free agency.

So what did we do right and wrong this season? This week, I’ll go through the five biggest productive surprises at each position compared to their ADP back in August, and then in next week’s newsletter, I’ll address the disappointments.

All scoring (besides QB) is half-PPR points per game. ADP is based on half-PPR drafts and is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Quarterback

Player

FP/G

QB Finish

ADP

Difference

Matthew Stafford

20.6

QB3

QB23

-20

Jaxson Dart

17.3

QB14

QB32

-18

Trevor Lawrence

19.9

QB5

QB20

-15

Drake Maye

20.6

QB2

QB16

-14

Caleb Williams

18.6

QB15

QB8

-7

Jacoby Brissett was a big shocker, but since he was nowhere near the drafting radar, he doesn’t really count. Brissett finished with 16.2 points as the QB18 in 14 contests.

Running Back

Player

FP/G

RB Finish

ADP

Difference

Woody Marks

8.7

RB35

RB68

-33

Rico Dowdle

11.6

RB21

RB54

-33

Javonte Williams

14.1

RB12

RB36

-24

Travis Etienne

13.9

RB13

RB32

-19

Jaylen Warren

12.3

RB19

RB30

-11

The top of the RB leaderboard this season was fairly chalky, with Javon Williams the greatest productive surprise in 2025.

Wide Receiver

Player

FP/G

WR Finish

ADP

Difference

Michael Wilson

10.7

WR21

WR81

-60

Wan’Dale Robinson

10.7

WR22

WR70

-52

Quentin Johnston

10.41

WR26

WR63

-37

George Pickens

14.4

WR6

WR28

-22

Zay Flowers

11.8

WR14

WR27

-13

Christian Watson had a depressed ADP of WR104 due to injury, and he ended as the WR17. Also, Parker Washington ended as the WR38 with 9.0 in half-PPR scoring per contest, but didn’t have a tracked ADP.

Tight Ends

Player

FP/G

TE Finish

ADP

Difference

Harold Fannin

9.4

TE8

TE34

-26

Oronde Gadsden

7.1

TE22

TE41

-19

Juwan Johnson

8.3

TE16

TE33

-17

Kyle Pitts

9.8

TE6

TE17

-11

Dallas Goedert

10.3

TE5

TE16

-11

Both Colby Parkinson and AJ Barner were surprises at TE20 and TE21, respectively, but were not drafted due to others in front of them on the depth chart at the time of fantasy drafts.

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Unless you missed the announcement, I’m here to remind you that it’s dynasty season! That means all things NFL Draft, free agency, startup drafts and more will be filling this space for the next nine months.

Let’s kick it off with some early looks at prospects in the upcoming class of 2026. At DLF, we’ve begun our Early Look Rookie series. Our latest profile looks at former Louisville wide receiver Chris Bell, who suffered a late-season ACL injury. He’s still making the leap and is an intriguing prospect. DLF’s John Hesterman shared his thoughts about Bell, including his expectations for Bell’s dynasty value…

Dynasty Outlook

Following the DLF ranking team, they are viewing Bell similarly to current NFL mocks. Per the ranking team, he is currently the WR6 and pick ten overall in the rookie rankings. Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson occupy the top spots among receivers. Bell is just above Germie Bernard and Chris Brazzell II.

Bell brings size, physicality, and some explosive ability with the ball in his hands. He showcases traits that should transfer to the NFL level. Assuming Bell lands in day-one territory, he should be given the opportunity to contribute early on, making him a viable first-round pick in rookie drafts for dynasty managers.

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.