📈 Buy, Sell, & Hold These Players

There's Always This Week

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
September 13, 2023

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Wednesday edition, we’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 2, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Your league’s trade market is officially open for business and there will be plenty of overreactions after just one week of play. Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

RB Jahmyr Gibbs 🦁

One of the biggest storylines from last TNF besides the actual victory for the Lions, was the RB distribution for Detroit. David Montgomery saw 21 touches to the rookie’s nine but in his limited volume, Gibbs showed both explosiveness and toughness. The Gibbs manager in your league may be panicking, but the 21-year-old will get more work in the weeks to come.

Give up: Any WR2 like Chris Godwin or Amari Cooper

WR Deebo Samuel ⛏️

With Brandon Aiyuk getting all the shine after Week 1, managers may be down on Samuel. He still put up WR3 numbers despite a down week and garnered a 25% target share with a run on 97% of routes for the 49ers. Better weeks are ahead and you may be able to snag Samuel for cheap.

Give up: An RB3 on a rushing-needy team will likely suffice.

Sells 

WR Garrett Wilson ✈️

There’s no denying that Zach Wilson is a downgrade at QB for Wilson and while he’s clearly talented, his value may suffer in this possible middling offense. Find a WR-hungry squad and try to flip Wilson for some solid RB talent.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for a solid RB like Josh Jacobs or Aaron Jones.

RB Javonte Williams 🐴

The Broncos do not appear to have taken that step forward that we all were hoping for. Sure, it’s been one game but the backfield was close to a 50/50 split between Williams and Samaje Perine and it’s going to drive managers crazy week in and week out. Sell Willams while you still can before it gets any worse.

Look to Acquire: A WR2 like Mike Williams or Tyler Lockett

Hold

  • WR Tee Higgins

  • WR Drake London

  • QB Joe Burrow

  • WR Zay Flowers

Mojo Fantasy: The Fantasy App That Lets You Make Moves After the Game Starts

Are you tired of being stuck with a bad pick in fantasy? With Mojo Fantasy, you can buy and sell player props LIVE, all game long. That's right, you can make moves after the game starts! So if your player gets off to a hot start, you can cash in. Or if they start to struggle, you can cut your losses.

It's the only fantasy app that gives you total control. Download Mojo Fantasy today and use my code BETSPERTS for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

This early in the season I am basing my suggestions on last year’s data, and won’t include the obvious starts like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Jefferson. These are the best matchups for Week 2.

Quarterbacks

🧀 Jordan Love @ Falcons

Not only were the Falcons 23rd in QB aFPA last season, but they yielded double-digit points to rookie Bryce Young in his first NFL start in Week 1. Love is coming off an impressive QB3 performance in fantasy points and is set up for success again in Atlanta on Sunday.

🌊 Geno Smith @ Lions

Smith’s QB22 output was a disappointment last week, but he’s in a nice spot to bounce back in Week 2. In 2022 when these two teams met, the result was a 48-45 shootout and Detroit allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs (21.9) last season.

Running Backs

🦁 David Montgomery vs. Seahawks

We saw a hefty workload for Monty in Week 1 and this week he faces a Seattle defensive unit that sat 29th in RB aFPA in 2022.

🧀 A.J. Dillon @ Falcons

Aaron Jones’ hamstring tweak appears to be minor but they may want to rest him, making Dillon a nice start this week. The Falcons were 22nd against the run last season and allowed Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard to post a combined 17.7 half-PPR points last Sunday.

Wide Receivers

⚜️ Chris Olave @ Panthers

Olave was WR24 in half-PPR scoring last week and gets another juicy defense to slash on Monday night. The sophomore has the potential to sneak into fantasy WR1 territory against this Carolina unit.

⚡️ Mike Williams @ Titans

It wasn’t the best start for Williams in Week 1 as he had to be evaluated for a concussion but did return to the field against Miami. This week he faces a Tennessee defense that was 31st in WR aFPA in 2022 and allowed a whopping 40.3 points in half-PPR scoring to the Saints WR room last week.

Tight Ends

 🐆 Evan Engram vs. Chiefs

Kansas City allowed a TE12 outing from rookie Sam LaPorta on TNF last week and they were ranked 26th against enemy TEs in 2022. Engram is coming off a TE7 performance and should end up in the top 10 again in Week 2.

🦁 Sam LaPorta vs. Seahawks

Speaking of LaPorta, he bucked the historical trend of rookie non-success in his very first game in the NFL. After a decent night with five catches for 39 yards, LaPorta gets the Seahawks at home, a unit that was dead-last in aFPA in 2022 against opposing TEs.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is 2022 aFPA rank

  • Derek Carr @ Panthers (25th)

  • Mac Jones @ Dolphins (30th)

  • Tyler Allgeier vs. Packers (24th)

  • James Cook vs. Raiders (27th)

  • Romeo Doubs vs. Falcons (25th)

  • D.J. Moore @ Buccaneers (29th)

  • Hunter Henry @ Dolphins (31st)

  • Luke Musgrave @ Falcons (27th)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use JEN10 for 10% off any subscription!