🛍️ Buy, Sell & Hold These Players

Last Single-Digit Week!

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
November 01, 2023

Happy 🐪 Day, folks! In today’s newsletter, we’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 9, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys 

↠ RB Isiah Pacheco

It was tough sledding for the Chiefs’ ground game against Denver last week with just 62 rushing yards on the books. Pacheco was responsible for 40 of those on eight carries and continues to be their go-to backfield guy. A soft matchup with Miami will provide a nice bounce back this week, then after the KC bye, Pacheco will face a stout Philly D, then two favorable contests against the Raiders and Packers.

Give up: A WR2 like Terry McLaurin or Michael Pittman

 🪺 WR Marquise Brown

The Cardinals just dealt Josh Dobbs to Minnesota and this week’s starter will either be Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray. Brown averaged 10.9 half-PPR points per game as WR27 with Dobbs and should boast a higher ceiling with Murray on the field. Perfect as a WR3, flex, and bye week filler, Brown is the team’s clear WR1 and he’s likely very affordable right now with the uncertainty at QB.

Give up: An RB3 such as Alexander Mattison or Najee Harris.

Sells 

🛡️ WR DeAndre Hopkins

Let’s just say a three-catch, four-touchdown day is the greenest flag to trade high on Hopkins we can possibly get. The Tennessee WR hadn’t found the end zone until last week and while rookie Will Levis may have breathed some life into the Titans’ offense, there will be some rough roads ahead which may impact Hopkins.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for an RB2 like Isiah Pacheco or Jahmyr Gibbs.

 🐴 RB Javonte Williams

Another guy who finally found the end zone in Week 8, Wiliams had 30 touches last week and has emerged as the clear bellcow in Denver. The schedule gets rougher for the Broncos after their bye this week, as they face four teams ranked among the top 11 in RB aFPA, with four of their next five opposing defensive units allowing fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.

Look to Acquire: A WR2 like Jaylen Waddle or Nico Collins.

Hold

  • RB Gus Edwards

  • RB Jonathan Taylor

  • WR CeeDee Lamb

  • WR DK Metcalf

  • RB Breece Hall

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

 🪺 Lamar Jackson vs. Seahawks

Jackson underperformed last week despite a solid matchup but he’s in a great bounce-back spot this week at home against Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing the fifth most aFPA to opposing QBs this season (18.8 .5/ppr).

🤠 Dak Prescott @ Eagles

Prescott is coming off a monster 28.1-point week and slides into a solid matchup against NFC East rival Philly. The Eagles sit 27th in QB aFPA thus far through the first eight games of the 2023 season.

Running Backs

⚜️ Alvin Kamara vs. Bears

Since returning from suspension, Kamara is the RB3 in half-PPR points per game. His stellar work should continue in Week 9 against the Bears, as they have yielded the third-most aFPA to the RB position thus far.

🧲 Jonathan Taylor @ Panthers

Taylor had a tough matchup last week against the Saints and gets a soft spot to land on Sunday. The Panthers rank 31st in RB aFPA, surrendering 29.6 half-PPR points to enemy backfields through eight weeks.

Wide Receivers

🛡️ DeAndre Hopkins @ Steelers

On the heels of a three-touchdown output last week, Hopkins gets a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing the most aFPA to WRs this season. He is dealing with a toe injury, so that needs monitoring ahead of the Titans contest on Thursday night.

🍔  George Pickens vs. Titans

On the other side of the field, Pickens should have a solid day against a Tennessee defensive unit that is ranked 26th in WR aFPA.

Tight Ends

😈 TJ Hockenson @ Falcons

Hockenson has posted over 85 yards for two weeks straight and should keep it rolling in Atlanta on Sunday. It appears that Jaren Hall will get the start instead of new Viking Josh Dobbs, which could lead to some more check-downs from the rookie QB.

🦬 Dalton Kincaid @ Bengals

Kincaid has been running hot over the past two weeks, posting career highs in targets, receiving yards, and scoring his first touchdown. The Bengals have allowed the second-most aFPA to emeny TEs this season, so he should keep it going in Week 9.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is aFPA rank

  • Derek Carr vs. Bears (25th)

  • Saquon Barkley @ Raiders (29th)

  • Austin Ekeler @ Jets (23rd)

  • Derek Henry @ Steelers (22nd)

  • CeeDee Lamb @ Eagles (29th)

  • Adam Thielen vs. Colts (18th)

  • Jake Ferguson @ Eagles (18th)

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