🛍️ Buy, Sell & Hold these Players

In this Wednesday edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 5, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

With bye weeks getting underway, there should be plenty of action around your league. Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

RB Tony Pollard 🤠

Coming off his worst rushing output of the 2023 season (47 yards), Pollard managers may get antsy and look to flip him. The Cowboys’ Week 4 contest was a blow-out and his services weren’t needed, there will be many better days ahead.

Give up: A WR1 like Ja’Marr Chase or Keenan Allen

WR Jaylen Waddle 🐬

It’s highly unlikely that anyone will part with Tyreek Hill or Devon Achane, so getting Waddle is the best shot at this high-powered Miami offense. He’s had a slower start to the season but is still 15th in yards per route run and will have some fantastic games moving forward.

Give up: An RB2 like Alvin Kamara or Aaron Jones

Sells 

RB Khalil Herbert 🐻 

Even though they lost to Denver, the Bears had their best effort offensively last week which included Herbert’s 18 carries for 103 yards with an additional four catches for 19 yards and a score. The RB posted 20.2 half-PPR points in the contest which was more than his first three weeks combined. Whether rookie Roschon Johnson eventually takes over this backfield or not, last week may have been the pinnacle of Herbert’s 2023 campaign.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for a WR3 like Nico Collins or Christian Kirk

RB Zack Moss 🧲

Moss has stepped up for the Colts to the tune of 72 touches for 322 total yards and two touchdowns in three games without Jonathan Taylor. It’s likely that Taylor will return to the field in the very near future, relegating Moss to handcuff land for fantasy football purposes. If Taylor gets traded Moss could retain value, but I’d get ahead of it and try to move him this week.

Look to Acquire: A WR3 like Tank Dell or Romeo Doubs

Hold

• WR Deebo Samuel

• WR Puka Nacua

• RB James Cook

• RB Isiah Pacheco

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

🧲 Anthony Richardson vs. Titans

Tennessee currently sits 25th in QB aFPA and Richardson is playing very well thus far, posting an average of 22.8 fantasy points per contest which is second among all QBs in 2023. He’s 4for4’s QB4 heading into this week’s home matchup.

🪖 Sam Howell vs. Bears

Starting anyone against the Bears is becoming a theme for 2023 and this week it’s Howell. Chicago is currently ranked 26th in QB aFPA, yielding 19.2 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season.

Running Backs

🪺 Bijan Robinson vs. Texans

This should be a banner outing for the rookie, as Houston sits 28th in RB aFPA after four contests. Robinson is currently the RB6 in half-PPR points per tilt and is ranked as 4for4’s RB2 for this week’s matchup.

🦁 David Montgomery vs. Panthers

Coming off a massive 32-121-3 line in Week 4, Monty has another beautiful matchup at home against Carolina. The Panthers are surrendering the third-most aFPA to RBs in 2023 - 31.3 half-PPR points to enemy backfields each week.

Wide Receivers

 🐏 Puka Nacua & Tutu Atwell vs. Eagles

Nacua should remain in top -10 territory thanks to their matchup with an Eagles unit that is surrendering the third-most half-PPR points to opposing WRs. Consider Atwell a WR3 with WR2 potential if Philly figures out how to smother Nacua.

 🪺 Zay Flowers @ Steelers

Pittsburgh currently ranks 31st in WR aFPA, giving Flowers a juicy matchup in this AFC North battle. The rookie should be viewed as a fantasy WR2 for Sunday’s contest.

Tight Ends

🪶 Zach Ertz vs. Bengals

Ertz has been a pleasant but boring surprise this season in a very dry TE climate. The Bengals are allowing the second-highest aFPA to the TE position so this should be another solid week for the 32-year-old.

🐂 Dalton Schultz @ Falcons

Schultz hasn’t been what we thought he’d be, but we’re hopefully looking at a get-right week for the Houston TE. The Falcons sit 30th in aFPA to opposing TEs through the first four games and C.J. Stroud has been consistently improving with each week.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is opponent’s aFPA rank

• Matthew Stafford vs. Eagles (29th)

• Joshua Dobbs vs. Bengals (24th)

• Joe Mixon @ Cardinals (29th)

• Brian Robinson vs. Bears (31st)

• Marquise Brown vs Bengals (25th)

• Michael Pittman vs. Titans (29th)

• Dallas Goedert @ Rams (27th)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 5 Rankings 

8 Stash Candidates Ahead of Week 5

Dead Weight Report: Week 5 Drop List

Fantasy Football Quarterback Streaming Week 5

Fantasy Football Tight End Streaming Week 5

Fantasy Football Kicker Streaming Week 5

Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Week 5

Week 5 IDP Waiver Wire: Pickups & Targets

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