🛒 Who to Buy, Sell & Hold in Week 6

Fantasy Marketplace and Some Good Matchups

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
October 11, 2023

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In the Wednesday edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, we’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 6, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

With bye weeks underway, there should be plenty of action around your league. Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

RB Tony Pollard 🤠

As the RB18 on a per-game basis in half-PPR scoring, Pollard hasn’t quite returned his second-round value. The Dallas RB has the fourth-highest touch volume through five games and is tied for first with Christian McCaffrey in red zone attempts with 27. The points will come and the Pollard manager in your league may not think so.

Give up: CeeDee Lamb or Chris Olave

WR Michael Pittman 🧲

Pittman is averaging 9.2 targets per game which sits 10th among WRs and we can expect a more pass-heavy scheme with Gardner Minshew under center for the next month or so. With some stout run defenses on the docket (Jags, Browns, and Saints), I like Pittman’s chances for production in the coming weeks.

Give up: An RB2 on a rushing-needy team will likely suffice.

Sells 

WR Drake London 🪺

We’ve been holding London after a disastrous start to 2023 and now would be a great time to move him following two decent games. The Falcons are still a run-first offense and Desmond Ridder just doesn’t provide enough consistency to support multiple fantasy pieces.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for a solid RB like Jerome Ford or perhaps pair him with someone else to upgrade at TE to George Kittle or T.J. Hockenson

WR Gabe Davis 🦬

Averaging just 5.2 targets per game, Davis boasts a target share under 20% while he’s scored a touchdown in each of the last four games. The Bill WR has posted 64.8 half-PPR points thus far as the WR12, with over one-third of his fantasy output coming from touchdowns. In an offense with plenty of weapons, that type of production is unsustainable.

Look to Acquire: An RB2 like Brian Robinson or Kyren Williams

Hold

  • WR Tee Higgins

  • RB James Cook

  • RB Alvin Kamara

  • WR Keenan Allen

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

🐯 Joe Burrow vs. Seahawks

We finally saw Joe Burrow numbers last week as he was the QB8 with 23.4 fantasy points. He gets Seattle at home this week, a defensive unit that ranked 26th in aFPA to enemy signal callers. The Bengals should keep rolling with Burrow posting a top-10 performance.

🐏 Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals

Stafford has his breakfast buddy back in Cooper Kupp and faces an Arizona defense that sits dead-last in QB aFPA this season through five contests.

Running Backs

 🐬 Raheem Mostert vs. Panthers

With fellow Miami RB De’Von Achane sidelined with a knee injury, Mostert should see an uptick in usage this week and has a juicy matchup at home against Carolina. The Panthers rank 30th in RB aPFA, yielding 29.5 half-PPR points to enemy backfields in 2023.

 ↠ Isiah Pacheco vs. Broncos

Denver is allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per contest to RBs so far in 2023 and Pacheco is starting to heat up. This makes for the perfect storm for some fantasy goodness in Week 6.

Wide Receivers

 🐯 Ja’Marr Chase vs. Seahawks

Just like his QB above, Chase is coming off his best output of the season (WR2) and Seattle ranks 32nd against WRs in aFPA thus far. Chase is set up for another monster output this week.

🪺 Zay Flowers @ Titans (In London)

The rookie has emerged as a favorite target for Lamar Jackson and looks to finally find the end zone across the pond this week. Flowers will face a Titan defense unit that sits 24th in the league in WR aFPA.

Tight Ends

 🦅 Dallas Goedert @ Jets

Thanks to a big performance last week, Goedert is TE10 on the season in half-PPR scoring and heads to New York for a favorable matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Jets rank 29th in TE aFPA through five contests, surrendering 14.1 points in half-PPR formats to the position weekly.

 🪖 Logan Thomas @ Falcons

Thomas is healthy and has a clear connection with Washington QB Sam Howell. The Commanders are in Atlanta this week to battle a defense that is yielding the fifth-most aFPA to opposing TEs in 2023.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is aFPA rank

  • Kirk Cousins @ Bears (26th)

  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Colts (27th)

  • Alvin Kamara @ Texans (27th)

  • Alexander Mattison @ Bears (31st)

  • Kyren Williams vs. Cardinals (29th)

  • Mike Evans vs. Lions (27th)

  • Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua vs. Cardinals (25th)

  • Zach Ertz vs. Rams (30th)

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