🛍️ Who to Buy, Sell & Hold in Week 7

Fantasy Marketplace and Some Good Matchups

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
October 18, 2023

Welcome to the Hump Day edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter! I’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 7, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

RB Isiah Pacheco ↠

It’s been a slower burn for the KC RB to start this season but since Week 3 Pacheco is averaging 19.8 touches per game which sits 10th among RBs, translating to RB8 numbers in half-PPR scoring. Pacheco is being utilized on the goal line and in the pass-game which will likely continue moving forward.

Give up: A WR2 like Deebo Samuel or DeVonta Smith

WR Puka Nacua 🐏

Cooper Kupp returned to the WR1 spot for LA with a 7-148-1 line last week while Nacua put up a stinker after five straight weeks of averaging 18.5 half-PPR points per contest. Nacua was still heavily involved and will remain to No. 2 option in this offense moving forward.

Give up: An RB2 like Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon.

Sells 

WR Adam Thielen 🐈‍⬛

It’s been fun to watch the reinvention of 33-year-old Thielen in Carolina as the WR7 in half-PPR points per tilt but it feels unsustainable, plus the Panthers have been transparent about adding another WR before the trade deadline.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for a low RB2 like James Cook or Jahmyr Gibbs.

RB Jerome Ford 🟫

Last week Ford played in 50% of the snaps, down from 62% in his prior game, and saw just four more touches (19) to Kareem Hunt’s 15. It appears they want Hunt more in the mix and HC Kevin Stefanski talked about getting him “going” in his post-game presser.

Look to Acquire: A WR2/3 like Michael Pittman or Zay Flowers.

Hold

  • WR Jordan Addison

  • WR Davante Adams

  • RB Saquon Barkley

  • WR DeVonta Smith

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa @ Eagles 

As if you need another reason to start Tagovailoa. The Miami QB is fourth in fantasy points per game at his position and heads to Philly to battle a defensive unit that is surprisingly soft against QBs, sitting 29th in QB aFPA.

🌊 Geno Smith @ Lions

Smith’s QB31 output was a disappointment last week, but he’s in a nice spot to bounce back in Week 7. Seattle plays at home against a Cardinals defense that is surrendering the second-most aFPA to QBs so far this season.

🧀 Jordan Love @ Broncos

Love is coming off the worst outing of the season in Week 5, but also had a bye to hopefully work on things. He’ll face a Denver defensive unit that is ranked 30th in QB aFPA, yielding 21.1 fantasy points to the position on a weekly basis in 2023.

Running Backs

🧀 Aaron Jones @ Broncos

Let’s hope Jones is a go this week in Denver after missing several contests due to a hamstring injury. The Broncos are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. this season - a whopping 35.1 aFPA per week to enemy backfields.

🦅 D’Andre Swift vs. Dolphins

It’s been a fruitful season for Swift so far in Philly, and he gets a forgiving Miami run defense in Week 7. The Dolphins have surrendered 22.8 aFPA in half-PPR scoring per contest through six games, sitting 26th in the metric. Swift is 4for4’s RB7 this week (.5 ppr)

Wide Receivers

🐬 Tyreek Hill @ Eagles 

Hill is a must-start every week regardless of opponent but he gets the 29th ranked defensive unit in WR aFPA this week in Philly. You can fire up Jaylen Waddle with confidence this week, too.

🪺 Marquise Brown @ Seahawks

Coming off a meh game against a stout Rams defense, Brown should have a better outcome on Sunday in Seattle. The Seahawks are yielding the third-most aFPA to the WR position so far in 2023 and he is the top receiving option for QB Joshua Dobbs.

Tight Ends

⛏️ George Kittle @. Vikings

Since we seem to be doing an every-other-game thing with Kittle this season, it’s time for a monster outing at home against the Vikings. Minnesota ranks 15th against the position in aFPA, surrendering 7.8 half-PPR points per tilt to TEs in 2023.

🍔 Pat Freiermuth @ Rams

He’s had two weeks to heal up from a hamstring issue and it appears Freiermuth is trending toward playing this week against the Rams. LA has allowed the second-most aFPA to enemy TEs through six weeks which bodes well for a solid performance from the 24-year-old.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is aFPA rank

  • Joshua Dobbs @ Seahawks (26th)

  • Josh Jacobs @ Bears (31st)

  • Tyler Allgeier vs. Packers (24th)

  • Javonte Williams vs. Packers (28th)

  • Ken Walker vs. Cardinals (29th)

  • T.J. Lockett vs. Cardinals (24th)

  • Chris Olave vs. Jaguars (27th)

  • Luke Musgrave @ Broncos (32nd)

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