🏈You Can't Go Undefeated If You Don't Win Week 1🏆

Them’s the facts, folks.

You can’t go undefeated in your fantasy league if you don’t win in Week 1, so you’re in the right place on this fine Sunday morning.

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

Before we dig in, a reminder that today's newsletter is brought to you by Run Your Pool. Join our free Survivor Pool and win SB tickets.

“Big Game” tickets, available for free, just by picking one straight-up winner each week?

I think that’s something you have time for and interest in, given the fact that you’re here. Personally, I took the Ravens in Week 1. I think there are better game theory selections on the board (Commanders?), but I want to see Week 2. It’s a pride thing.

We’re giving you more Survivor Pool strategy help here courtesy of our friends at PoolGenius.

Week 1.

There’s nothing quite like it.

Perhaps you feel like you’re drawing dead after Thursday night, but today is a new day. Sure, maybe some of you used first-round picks on Travis Kelce (you’ll be fine) or Cooper Kupp (ah, you, on the other hand…). Either way, let’s make good decisions when filling out the back end of our starting lineups in Week 1.

You can’t stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.

Wait.

I’m being told that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Top Quarterback Streaming Picks

Top Tight End Streaming Picks

Top Team Defense Streaming Picks

Top Kicker Streaming Picks

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. Don’t tell him I said this, but he’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

But I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

WE JUST MET!

But I’m going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day. Remember, we can’t win ‘em all if we don’t win the first one.

I’m pretty good at this, too.

Am I better than Paulsen? It’s a good question. A lot of people are saying yes, and I’m a people-pleaser, so I hate arguing.

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:

Geno Smith (QB) - Geno came off the board as the QB16, according to our Multi-site ADP Tool, so it’s likely that if he’s on your roster, you have someone else ahead of him. Maybe Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones, for example. I’m starting Geno ahead of them this week, as he faces a Rams’ defense that’s loaded with Day 3 rookie selections and undrafted free-agent signees.

Jamaal Williams (RB) - With Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller nursing a sore hammy, last year’s dive-in-from-the-goal-line king is set up to be the belle of the ball in his debut for the Saints. It’s a tough matchup against a stout Titans front, but his only carry competition is Taysom Hill, and I doubt that comes as a pure rusher. He’s also a better receiving back than what we saw in Detroit, so the floor is pretty high here for Week 1.

Raheem Mostert (RB) - The Chargers should be an improved run defense this season, but don’t confuse improved with good. Mostert won the preseason war of attrition in Miami’s running back room, with Jeff Wilson Jr. and electric rookie Devon Achane both dinged up. Achane should be active and breathing down Mostert’s neck until Wilson comes back and messes it all up, but for now, Mostert’s role is pretty safe in Week 1.

Brian Robinson (RB) - Did you see Brian Robinson caught four passes in limited action during his last preseason game? I did. If there’s some there there, that’s a game-changer for Robinson’s weekly floor. The general thought is that Antonio Gibson will handle any and all of the passing down work, with the potential to vulture some of Robinson’s early down work. That could be true, but all reports out of Washington are this coaching staff loves Robinson, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him look more explosive than what we saw last season, all things considered. As a 7-point home favorite against the league’s worst team, Robinson is set up to pop off in Week 1. His quarterback, Sam Howell, is likely a viable deep-league starter in Week 1 as well.

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) - Mims was a name that gained a lot of steam toward the tail-end of draft season, and deservedly so. Wide receiver wasn’t a perceived priority for Sean Payton’s Broncos heading into the offseason, but it was telling that Mims was the team’s first pick in April’s draft. Since draft day, Tim Patrick was lost for the season, K.J. Hamler is no longer with the team, and Jerry Jeudy’s ongoing struggle with being active on game day continues. Denver elevated WR Phillip Dorsett and WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey from the practice squad, which is an indicator that he’s out (also, Schefter tweeted it out over night). Mims should step into a near-every-down role in his NFL debut and has the sort of big-play ability that can win you a week.

Jayden Reed (WR) - Another rookie set up to benefit from injuries, Packers’ rookie Jayden Reed gets a great matchup against a questionable Bears’ secondary. Christian Watson has already been ruled out, and while Romeo Doubs is set to play, he’s likely not 100%. Reed might be available on your waiver wire, and if your waiver wire is open, getting ahead of your league-mates this morning before he posts a solid Week 1 performance is wise, even if you don’t need him to start this week.

Isaiah Likely (TE) - Isaiah is likely….sitting on your league’s free-agent pile. With Mark Andrews out, the second-year tight end walks into a pristine opportunity in the first week of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. He’s currently the TE3 in our projections, so yeah, start him if you’ve got him.

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Aaron Rodgers (QB) - I’m starting Geno Smith, Anthony Richardson, and Sam Howell over Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. The Bills were 4th in defensive DVOA last season and did so with a lot of backups playing a serious amount of snaps. I’m avoiding them if possible.

Najee Harris (RB) - You probably have to start Harris, but you did this to yourself by drafting him. Ok, that’s a bit harsh, but Week 1 against San Francisco could make you regret it. If you’re a Najee believer and missed out on drafting him, perhaps you can get him for 80 cents on the dollar after this one.

Breece Hall (RB) - It looks like Breece Hall will be active for Monday night’s tilt against the Bills, but it’s a risky proposition to put him in your lineup this week. It’s a bad matchup, plus his Week 1 workload with new teammate Dalvin Cook in town is a bit of a crapshoot. Pass.

Gabe Davis (WR) - I’m bullish on Gabe Davis this season. He burned a lot of fantasy drafters last season after failing to live up to the 2021 Divisional Playoff game 4-TD hype, but I believe he was battling that high-ankle sprain all season. 2023 should be better, but it’ll be a slow start against this elite Jets’ secondary.

Skyy Moore and Kadarious Toney (WR) - Just a hunch, but I expect these guys will be punching bags for three days after their terrible Week 1 performances.

There are so few active tight ends this week that I can’t advise you to sit anyone that you might start. Just be thankful that you have a warm body with tight-end eligibility on your roster.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

Want a 50,000-foot view of Week 1? All you’ll need is this Cheat Sheet.

Playing large-pool GPP’s? Daigle has all that you need in this piece.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Here’s Week 1’s show. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

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The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal.

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

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This deal will get you everything you need to be profitable this football season, plus a free $100 to a site that you’re going to spend money on at some point this season anyway. Seems like a no-brainer, folks. 4for4.com/plans.

Sunday night should be a good one, with Dallas (-3) on the road in the division, taking on the New York Football Giants.

I played the under on the Giants team total at 21.5 earlier in the week for our subscribers.

If you like single-game DFS, Matt’s got you covered here in his showdown preview of tonight’s NFC East tilt.

Thanks for hanging out with me this morning, and good luck to everyone in Week 1!