DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 5, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 5 Value Plays

QB Matthew Stafford ($6,800 FD/$5,600 DK) 🐏

Matthew Stafford projects as a top-three value on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is 4for4’s number-one value on DK. Stafford is expected to get Cooper Kupp back against an Eagles defense that has been one of the bigger pass funnels this season. Philadelphia ranks 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs but bottom four against quarterbacks and wide receivers.

RB De'Von Achane ($7,500 FD/$6,100 DK) 🐬

The Dolphins are the biggest favorite on the main slate (-12.5) and are at home against a reeling Giants team that ranks 20th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs. De'Von Achane’s snaps have increased every week (DNP-10%-41%-60%) as has his backfield touch share (DNP-7%-42%-50%). Miami is trending towards an Achane takeover and this is a blowup spot for the rookie.

WR Marquise Brown ($6,400 FD/$5,000 DK) 🐦

Marquise Brown has drawn double-digit targets in two of his last three games and over the last three weeks, his 29.7% target share ranks seventh in the league. Cincinnati has been a bit of a pass funnel—they rank 12th in running back aFPA but outside the top 20 against quarterbacks and wide receivers—and might be without cornerback Chidobe Awuzie.

TE Sam LaPorta ($6,000 FD/$5,000 DK) 🦁

The Lions are likely to play without Amon-Ra St. Brown this week which may push Sam LaPorta to the top of Jared Goff’s target tree. LaPorta’s 6.8 targets per game ranks fifth at his position and he is one of two tight ends with at least 22% of his team’s targets this year. Detroit’s rookie tight end is a top-two positional value on both sites, leading the way on DraftKings.

Week 5 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

QB Joe Burrow ($7,000 FD/$6,200 DK) 🐯

Players on both sides of the ball are going to be chalky in this game but GPP players will be hesitant to click Burrow’s name based on his recent performance. However, only one team has allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Cardinals this year.

RB Derrick Henry ($9,000 FD/$7,500 DK) ⚔

DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be one of the most popular players on the slate, especially on FanDuel, where he is priced far too low. This makes Derrick Henry a fantastic leverage play in a game where the Titans are favored against a Colts defense allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted points to running backs.

WR Garrett Wilson ($7,400 FD/$6,000 DK) ✈

The Broncos are arguably the worst defense in the league, ranked last in schedule-adjusted points to both quarterbacks and running backs while giving up the ninth-most schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers. Ownership is expected to favor Breece Hall this week, making Garrett Wilson an ideal leverage play.

TE Mark Andrews ($7,600 FD/$5,500 DK) 🖤💜

With Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman returning to the lineup this week, no one will want to take a chance on Ravens pass-catchers. Andrews, however, has maintained his alpha status with at least 24% of targets in two of his three games played. Steelers have one of the worst coverage units in football and anyone that pays up at tight end will be doing so for Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 5 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 5 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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