💲 DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 10, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 10 Value Plays

🐯 QB Joe Burrow ($8,200 FD/$6,800 DK)

Four of the top five—including the top three—fantasy quarterbacks are off the main slate, making Joe Burrow the top-rated quarterback on both sites, by both point projection and value score. Since Week 5, the Bengals lead the league in passing rate over expectation and are second in pass EPA per play while Burrow is fantasy’s QB3 in that span. Houston ranks outside the top 20 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. All this equates to Cincinnati having the second-highest team total on the slate (26.75).

🐆 RB Travis Etienne ($8,400 FD/$7,100 DK)

Few players have the touch floor of Travis Etienne, whose 22.3 touches per game ranks third in the league. His fantasy outlook is elevated by the fact that he ranks sixth among running backs in targets and fifth at his position in receiving yards per game. San Francisco’s defense has been average against running backs this year and this is expected to be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate, making Etienne a top-two running back value on both sites.

🦁 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600 FD/$8,300 DK)

Lions at Chargers is the most likely shootout of the week (48.5-point total, Lions -3) and Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out as the best value play in the game. Priced comfortably behind the other top receivers on the slate, St. Brown will have the luxury of facing one of the biggest pass funnel defenses in football—Los Angeles ranks 17 in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs but last against quarterbacks and 25th to wide receivers. St. Brown’s low 7.3-yard average target depth is offset by his 31.4% target share.

🐦 TE Trey McBride ($5,100 FD/$3,500 DK)

Pay-down options are scarce this week which usually means it’s an obvious spot to save at the volatile tight end position. Arizona’s entire passing attack gets a boost with the return of Kyler Murray and Trey McBride should benefit as much as anyone. McBride is one of seven tight ends averaging at least seven targets per game over the last month while his season-long target rate (27%) and yards per route run (2.1) are among the best at his position, according to SportsInfoSolutions.

Week 10 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

🏈 QB Sam Howell ($7,200 FD/$5,900)

Commanders and Seahawks could have some passing-game fireworks but with Seattle favored and Geno Smith priced below Sam Howell on both sites, Smith should be in 2–3 times as many lineups as Howell. Only two teams throw at a higher rate relative to expectation than the Commanders and GPP players that land on the right stacking partner(s) with Howell could be on tournament-winning contrarian pieces in this game.

⚜RB Alvin Kamara ($8,800 FD/$8,300 DK)

After failing as mega chalk in Week 9, DFS players will be off Kamara in Week 10, especially with so much attention on Taysom Hill’s usage of late. There are few running backs with the touch floor or ceiling of Kamara and that volume can result in blow-up fantasy weeks at any time. Take the ownership discount.

🖤❤ WR Drake London ($6,500 FD/$5,500 DK)

Arizona’s passing game is expected to be one of the most popular on the slate, with heavy ownership falling on Marquise Brown and Trey McBride in Kyler Murray’s return. Meanwhile, Drake London will be on the other side with single-digit ownership. London doubles as a salary pivot off of Tank Dell, who is also expected to be one of the highest-rostered receivers on both sites.

🖤💜 TE Mark Andrews ($7,300 FD/$6,900 DK)

In a week where salaries are quite tight, not many DFS players will pay all the way up at tight end. Andrews has one of the highest ceiling projections at his position on the slate but is projecting for ownership well under 5%. The matchup against the Browns is daunting but Andrews is putting up elite target and efficiency numbers and is one of the few tight ends that can smash in a perceived bad matchup.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 10 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 10 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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