DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 3, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 3 Value Plays

QB Kirk Cousins ($7,800 FD/$6,900 DK) 💜💛

This game is expected to be the shootout of the week, with a total of 54 points and a spread of just one. Through two weeks, only one team has thrown at a higher rate over expectation than Minnesota and the Chargers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far.

RB Tony Pollard ($9,400 FD/$8,000 DK) 🤠

Tony Pollard is 4for4’s top value across all positions on both sites as a 12.5-point favorite. The Cowboys have run at the fifth-highest rate relative to expectation through two games and Pollard is one of eight players to see at least 40% of his team’s touches.

WR Mike Williams ($7,200 FD/$6,000 DK) ⚡

After seeing just five targets in Week 1, Mike Williams was targeted 13 times for a 33.3% target share in Week 2. Keenan Alen’s huge game, however, has driven a wedge between his and Williams’ salaries with Williams priced $1,600 less on both sites.

TE Zach Ertz ($5,100 FD/$3,500 DK) 🐦

Not only does Zach Ertz lead all tight ends in targets through two weeks but he is one of 10 players across all positions with a target share of at least 30%. If the Cowboys have shown any vulnerability on defense, it’s against tight ends, where they rank 15th in fantasy points allowed.

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Week 3 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

QB Tua Tagovailoa ($8,100 FD/$7,000 DK) 🐬

The Dolphins have the fourth-highest team total on the main slate (27.25) but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see six or seven quarterbacks in more lineups than Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins quarterback leads the league in yards per attempt (9.5) while the Broncos allow the seventh-highest yards per attempt.

RB Gus Edwards ($6,200 FD/$5,300 DK) 🖤💜

Justice Hill has been ruled out for Sunday which means Gus Edwards could handle the majority of the backfield work for the Ravens. With a handful of running back values in a similar salary range, Edwards’ ownership should stay in check despite the fact that the Ravens are favored by 8.5 points over the Colts.

WR Stefon Diggs ($8,000 FD/$8,100 DK) 🐃

DFS lineups that pay up for wide receivers this week will likely do so with Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, or Keenan Allen which should leave Stefon Diggs with single-digit ownership. The Commanders are allowing the sixth-most points to opposing wide receivers this season.

TE Evan Engram ($5,900 FD/$4,800 DK) 🐆

The Jaguars have already shown that they have multiple pass-catchers that can blow up in a given week and it may be Evan Engram’s turn. Engram ranks third on the team in targets and is fifth among all tight ends in target share. Jacksonville has a 26.5-point team total against a Texans defense allowing the ninth-most yards per pass attempt through two weeks.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 3 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 3 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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