DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 6, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 6 Value Plays

QB Trevor Lawrence ($7,600 FD/$6,500 DK 🐆

In the only game on the main slate with two offenses ranked in the top 10 in neutral pace, Trevor Lawrence stands out as the top quarterback value on FanDuel and a top-three value on DraftKings. The Jaguars' offense has thrown at the ninth-highest rate relative to expectation and should produce inflated efficiency against a Colts defense allowing the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. Lawrence also offers some rushing floor, averaging just over 26 yards per game on the ground

RB Raheem Mostert ($8,500 FD/$6,400 DK) 🐬

With De’Von Achane on IR, Raheem Mostert is expected to get the majority of the backfield work in a game where the Dolphins are favored by nearly two touchdowns at home. No defense has faced a higher run rate than the Panthers, who rank 30th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs. Mostert is ranked as 4for4’s top running back value on DraftKings.

WR Ja’Marr Chase ($9,300 FD/$8,300 DK) 🐯

After the best PPR performance of 2023, Ja’Marr Chase is still priced a tier below the top wide receivers on DraftKings. Even before his Week 5 breakout with Tee Higgins sidelined, Chase was demanding a 29% target share, so Higgins’ return would have little impact on Chase’s ranking as 4for4’s top overall value on both sites. No defense has allowed more schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers than the Seahawks.

TE Evan Engram ($5,500 FD/$4,500 DK) 🐆

From a value perspective, Evan Engram stands out as the top Jaguars pass-catcher. Engram is priced significantly below Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk on both sites, despite being second on the team in target share and one of four players with at least eight targets in each of the last four weeks. Engram is 4for4’s top tight end value on both sites.

Week 6 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

QB Geno Smith ($6,800 FD/$5,700 DK) 1️⃣2️⃣

While there is heavy chalk on the Bengals’ side of this game, almost no GPP players will be on the Seahawks’ side. This is the only matchup on the slate with two offenses in the top 10 in passing rate over expectation and Seattle ranks 12th in EPA per pass play. Stacking the Seahawks’ side and bringing back Ja’Marr Chase is a great way to offset Chase’s high ownership.

RB D’Andre Swift ($7,200 FD/$6,100 DK) 🦅

D’Andre Swift has handled at least 74% of the Eagles’ backfield touches in three of their last four games and has been targeted at least four times in the last two games. This week, Swift faces a Jets defense that has allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs and Philadelphia is favored by a touchdown.

WR Jaylen Waddle ($6,800 FD/$7,600) 🐬

Waddle is coming off of a season-high 36% target share last week and the Dolphins are set up for another nuclear week against a Panthers defense that was just destroyed by a depleted Lions team. With De’Von Achane out, Miami may go back to a heavy Waddle/Tyreek concentration and Waddle offers leverage off of his chalky teammates.

TE Cole Kmet ($6,100 FD/$4,600 DK) 🐻

Only three tight ends have a higher target share than Cole Kmet this year and the Bears passing attack is trending upward. That trend should continue against a Vikings defense that has funneled points to the passing game. On DraftKings, Kmet is an almost perfect salary pivot off of Evan Engram, who will be among the highest-rostered players on the slate.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 6 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 6 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use promo code TJ10 for 10% off any subscription!