💲 DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 7, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

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Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 7 Value Plays

QB Jordan Love ($7,800 FD/$5,800 DK) 🧀

Both quarterbacks in this game pop but the porous Denver defense gives Love the higher floor. While allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted points to quarterbacks, the Broncos have also been thrown against at the eighth-highest rate relative to expectation. If this game paces up even slightly more than expected, Love can turn his underrated fantasy efficiency—he ranks fourth among Week 7 starting quarterbacks in fantasy points per snap—into a big day.

RB Kenneth Walker ($8,800 FD/$7,000 DK) 1️⃣2️⃣

Kenneth Walker is 4for4’s top value across all positions on both sites. Coming out of their Week 5 bye, the Seahawks offered Walker his highest backfield touch share of the season (82%), resulting in a season-high 22 touches. Now Seattle is favored by over a touchdown at home against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the fifth-most schedule-adjusted points to running backs.

WR Joshua Palmer ($6,500 FD/$4,800 DK) ⚡

Since Mike Williams’ injury, the Chargers have made it obvious that Joshua Palmer is the clear number two ahead of Quentin Johnson, giving Palmer 25% of targets since Week 4. Even with Austin Ekeler returning to the lineup after the bye, Palmer still saw a healthy 19% target share. As the team that throws at the fourth-highest rate over expectation, LA should pepper Palmer with plenty of volume if they want to keep pace with the Chiefs this week.

TE Luke Musgrave ($5,000 FD/$3,300 DK) 🧀

In two of Luke Musgrave’s last three games, he has been targeted at least seven times, only falling short in Week 5 when he left the game early with a concussion. Christian Watson’s return seemed to have little bearing on Musgrave’s involvement, as both players saw a 24% target share in their last game. Musgrave gets the privilege of facing the Broncos this week, who have given up the most schedule-adjusted points to tight ends.

Week 7 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

QB Josh Allen ($9,000 FD/$8,200 DK) 🐃

While everyone who decides to pay up at quarterback will gravitate to Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen will go overlooked at basically the same salary. The Bills’ 24.25-point total is the third-highest on the slate and less than three points lower than the Chiefs’ but the 40-point game total should prevent GPP Players from targeting this game much.

RB Aaron Jones ($7,700 FD/$6,800 DK) 🧀

Green Bay’s passing game will be popular this week but Aaron Jones could be an afterthought in his first game back from injury. No team has allowed more schedule-adjusted points to running backs than the Broncos and Jones’ ceiling projection is higher than chalky running backs such as Isiah Pacheco and Jahmyr Gibbs.

WR DK Metcalf ($7,700 FD/$6,800 DK) 1️⃣2️⃣

*If Active

Kenneth Walker may be the most rostered player on the slate but Seattle’s pass-catchers aren’t expected to draw much ownership, despite a matchup with a defense ranked in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Metcalf tops this week’s DFS breakout candidates.

TE Tyler Higbee ($5,000 FD/$3,700 DK) 🐏

The Rams’ passing attack is in a great spot against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. However, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both have high salaries, making it tough to use Matthew Stafford double stacks. Given the Steelers’ good pass rush, it might be difficult for Tutu Atwell and his downfield targets to succeed, which makes Higbee the ideal second pass-catcher in Rams builds that start with Kupp or Nacua.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 7 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 7 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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