💲 DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 11, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 11 Value Plays

🐦 QB Kyler Murray ($7,600 FD/$6,100 DK)

In Kyler Murray’s first game of the season, the Cardinals threw at the 13th-highest rate over expectation compared to an offense that ranked 28th in that category over the first nine weeks. While Murray completed less than 60% of his passes in Week 10, he posted a healthy 7.8 yards per attempt and ran for 33 yards and a score. This week, Arizona will face a Houston team allowing the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks in a game with the highest total on the slate (48.0). Murray is the only quarterback that 4for4 projects as a top-three value at his position on both sites.

🏈 RB Brian Robinson ($7,200 FD/$5,800 DK)

Antonio Gibson is listed as doubtful for Week 11, making Brian Robinson 4for4’s top value across all positions on both sites. Robinson has been one of the most game-script-dependent running backs in the league, averaging nearly 18 touches per game in Commanders wins but fewer than 12 touches in losses. As a 9-point home favorite against the Giants, Robinson should easily approach 20 touches this week.

🐻 WR D.J. Moore ($6,800 FD/$5,600 DK)

Chicago gets quarterback Justin Fields back this week, a blessing of extraordinary magnitude for D.J. Moore. While Moore’s target and reception totals have remained steady all year, the Bears receiver was averaging 97 yards and 20+ PPR points per game with Fields compared to 23 yards and 10 points without him. Fields returns to face a Lions defense that funnels points to the passing game, giving up the seventh-fewest schedule-adjusted points to running backs but ranked in the bottom 10 against quarterbacks and wide receivers.

🐃 TE Dalton Kincaid ($5,800 FD/$4,900 DK)

Over the last four weeks, Dalton Kincaid has averaged a 24% target share, a mark that would rank third among tight ends over the course of this season. Kincaid’s short average target depth (4.6 yards) caps his big-play ability but also translates to reliable, high-catch-rate targets, especially value in full-PPR contests. Kincaid is 4for4’s top tight end value on both sites.

Week 11 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

🐬 QB Tua Tagovailoa ($8,400 FD/$7,700)

High-salary quarterbacks are expected to draw low ownership in Week 11 and that goes for Tua Tagovailoa, despite the fact that the Dolphins have the highest team total on the slate. Tagovailoa is a great way to roster Tyreek Hill but offset Hill’s high expected ownership. DFS tournament players can stack Tagovailoa with Hill and Jaylen Waddle or include De’Von Achane in onslaught builds.

🐦 RB James Conner ($6,800 FD/$5,700 DK)

Cardinals-Texans is expected to be the chalkiest game of the week, especially on DraftKings, where Arizona’s passing attack is drawing the heaviest team ownership on the slate. On the Houston side, Devin Singletary and Tank Dell project as massive chalk on both sites. All this points to James Conner as a massive leverage play, especially as a stand-alone option.

🐮 WR Nico Collins ($7,200 FD/$6,700 DK)

Nico Collins is one of the few players in the Texans-Cardinals matchup expected to draw low ownership and he should step right back into a heavy workload with Noah Brown out this week. Arizona has been especially vulnerable against deep, middle-of-the-field passes, precisely where Collins was seeing a huge chunk of targets prior to his injury.

🦁 TE Sam LaPorta ($6,800 FD/$5,800 DK)

Lions-Bears has the same game total as Cardinals-Texans but players are expected to get much higher ownership in the latter is projecting for way high ownership. Pass-catchers that do get rostered in the Lions’ game are likely to come from the Chicago side, making LaPorta a leverage play off of players in his same game as well as chalk tight ends playing at the same time.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 11 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 11 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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