💲 DFS Values and Contrarian Plays

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Saturday edition, we’ll cover the top DFS values and contrarian plays for Week 12, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Using 4for4’s powerful DFS Value Reports, I’ll highlight the top DFS value plays at each position.

Week 12 Value Plays

🦅 QB Jalen Hurts ($8,800 FD/$8,300 DK)

Jalen Hurts has the highest fantasy projection on the main slate and is 4for4’s top quarterback value on FanDuel. On a slate with multiple elite quarterbacks in favorable situations, getting to one of the top options is a priority in cash games. Hurts has been the most reliable fantasy play of the year, scoring at least 19.9 DK points in nine straight games. He is one of two quarterbacks with at least 100 rush attempts this season and has a massive ceiling this week in a game with the highest total on the slate (48.5).

🐴 RB Jonathan Taylor ($7,500 FD/$6,900 DK)

Since starting his season in Week 5, Jonathan Taylor’s snap share has increased in every game, reaching 88% in the Colts’ last game before their bye. In each of the last two games, Taylor has touched the ball at least 23 times. He projects as 4for4’s top value across all positions in a game where the Colts are home favorites.

🐮 WR Tank Dell ($7,800 FD/$6,900 DK)

Tank Dell was given a substantial salary increase this week but it still isn’t quite high enough for a player with 10+ targets in three straight games. Teams have thrown at the fourth-highest rate above expectation when facing the Jaguars, while Jacksonville has surrendered the 10th-most schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers. Dell is a top-two wide receiver value on both sites, including 4for4’s top play on DraftKings.

🐃 TE Dalton Kincaid ($6,000 DK/$5,300)

In what is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the slate, Dalton Kincaid is the most cost-effective way to access either offense. Kincaid has nearly matched Stefon Digg’s target share over the last month, both around the 25% mark. Only four tight ends have a higher target share in that span and Philadelphia invites the second-highest passing rate over expectation.

Week 12 Contrarian Plays

Every week, 4for4 produces some of the most accurate DFS ownership projections in the industry. Using this ownership as a guide can point us to the best contrarian options to use in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

🐮 QB C.J. Stroud ($7,700 FD/$7,700 DK)

In a potential divisional shootout, the Jaguars are expected to be one of the most popular offenses on the slate while the Texans are projecting for moderate to low ownership, especially on DraftKings. DFS players that do pay up at quarterback will likely overlook Stroud on DK, while he is virtually the same salary as Trevor Lawrence on FanDuel.

🐏 RB Kyren Williams ($8,200 FD/$6,600 FD)

On a weak running back slate, it’s a good time to be contrarian at the position and Kyren Williams should draw single-digit ownership on both sites. Williams is expected to immediately return to his pre-injury workload against a Cardinals defense allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs.

🏴‍☠️ WR Mike Evans ($8,000 FD/$7,400 DK)

Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Rachaad White all project for high ownership in a game where Mike Evans seems to be going overlooked. That makes Evans one of the better leverage plays on the slate or an option to include in heavy game stacks for rosters that lean into the chalk in this game.

❤💛 TE Travis Kelce ($8,300 FD/$8,200 DK)

Kelce won’t be super contrarian but should draw much lower ownership than Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. That makes Kelce especially intriguing as a tournament play since teams that opt for Kelce’s high salary will have a unique construction compared to those that pay down at the position. With the Chiefs in the late window, Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are late swap options for those that rostered Bills and Eagles but need to catch the field.

Here are some of the latest DFS articles and tools on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 12 Cash Game and GPP Strategy

Week 12 DFS Value Reports

DFS Ownership Projections

DFS Leverage Scores

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

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