Draft These Running Backs at Your Own Risk ☢️

WRs on the Rise and RBs Taking Hits

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
August 10, 2023

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Risk is something we all take on when playing fake football. Most people consider the upside when making selections, but few consider a player’s potential risk, particularly at the top of draft boards. Here are a few players with the most inherent risk at their price heading into 2023. These guys shouldn’t be totally avoided on draft day, but my intent is to point out their lower range of outcomes rather than the chance to outperform ADP.

🪺 Bijan Robinson, RB (ATL) Yahoo ADP: RB4, 9.3

Robinson’s risk comes from a few places, the first is his HC Arthur Smith. We’ve seen Smith misuse and squander the talent of Kyle Pitts so it’s not out of the realm of possibility sophomore RB Tyler Allgeier is more involved than managers who draft Robinson want him to be. Next, we have a team that threw the second-fewest passes in the NFL last season and in order for Robinson to return his massive draft capital, he’ll need to be involved in said passing game, like Saquon Barkley in his rookie breakout. He’ll also need to frequently find the end zone and Atlanta may not be in the red zone as often as we’d like in 2023. Robinson will likely see top-of-the-league carries but if it’s just between the twenties it won’t be enough to return a first-round investment.

🏴‍☠️ Josh Jacobs, RB (LV) Yahoo ADP: RB9, 17.5

Unless you’re just returning to NFL news you’re likely aware Josh Jacobs is currently holding out from playing the 2023 season on the franchise tag. Clearly, there’s risk in the pick in the event he actually doesn't return to the team by the time the regular season commences. There is also an injury hazard associated with him not practicing and playing with the team, as we’ve seen soft tissue and other issues pop up in prior holdouts.

Jacobs led the league in touches last year with 393 and if he’s on the field, the Raiders would likely lean on him heavily again this season. Plus, the absence of Darren Waller could add a little more meat to the passing-volume bone for the 25-year-old. Let’s hope this dispute is settled sooner rather than later, but for now, there’s still plenty of risk in selecting last season’s overall fantasy RB3.

🐯 Joe Mixon, RN (CIN) Yahoo ADP: RB16, 38.8

Last year was a mixed bag for Joe Mixon as his overall RB8 finish in half-PPR points per game does not tell the whole story. Efficiency was an issue, considering that among 67 RBs with at least 50 rushing attempts, he was 56th in yards after contact per carry and 53rd in rushing yards over expected per carry. The 27-year-old posted just one 100+ yard rushing game last season, with only four reaching 100 combined yards.

Distribution of RB work also shifted in the latter part of the season, as Samaje Perine out-snapped and ran more routes than Mixon in two of the three post-season tilts, and while Perine is no longer on the roster, the decline in usage is a concern. Being heavily involved in the passing game is a must for Mixon to return value as an early-fourth-round pick this season and the absence of Perine helps, but there are still plenty of talented pass-catching options for Joe Burrow.

We also can’t ignore the off-field issues brewing for Mixon, as he was recently named in a civil suit for a connection to a March shooting in his home. This could open him up for a suspension for violating the NFL’s conduct policy, obviously adding even more risk to the early-round selection. While it may come back to haunt me, I’m alright with letting someone else take on Mixon’s inefficiency and potential missed games in 2023.

  • Free Agent RB Kareem Hunt is still looking for an NFL home after visits with the Saints and Colts ended in no deals over the last week.

  • After only a few days as a member of the Cardinals, RB Marlon Mack’s season ends with another torn Achilles. It’s a tough blow for Mack who had the inside track on the RB2 job in Arizona behind James Conner.

  • As part of the Netflix anthology series UNTOLD, Johnny Football is a documentary featuring former Cleveland QB Johhny Manziel. The 30-year-old revealed that he didn’t watch any film while he was with the Browns.🤯 Manziel lasted just two seasons in the NFL, ending his career with a 2-6 record as the starter.

🚀 WR Jalin Hyatt -NYG (Was: 199.9, Now: 176.2, Jump: 23.7)

After a freefall over the summer due to his playing with the third team in OTAs, Hyatt is now the talk of training camp, showcasing elite speed and nabbing some deep throws with the first team. The rookie’s ADP has spiked two full rounds in just seven days as drafters are eating up any info they can get to distinguish among the myriad of pass catchers in the Giants’ WR room.

🚀 WR Marvin Mims - DEN (Was: 163, Now: 149.7, Jump: 13.3)

This ADP hike for Mims is likely the residual effects of Tim Patrick’s season-ending Achilles injury. Also a rookie, Mims could be in line for significant work in the Denver offense as their WR3 and he’s still fairly affordable as a 13th-rounder, despite his climb in draft stock of over a full round.

🚀 WR Justyn Ross - KCC (Was: 195.4, Now: 183, Jump: 12.4)

Ross missed all of last season recovering from foot surgery and has recently gained massive steam among drafters. It’s tough to predict or draft any pass catchers not named Travis Kelce from the Kansas City offense, as they will drive you nuts each and every week when setting lineups. Even with his near-round elevation, Ross is still very inexpensive as a 17th-round selection if you want to roll the dice.

🪂 WR Tyquan Thornton - NEP (Was: 184.8, Now: 204.9, Fall: 20.1)

Reports from Patriots camp indicate a very slow start for Thornton and he could be falling out of favor with the coaching staff. New England’s WR corps is fairly crowded so any distinction is affecting players’ ADP. The sophomore has slid down to the 17/18 turn and is nothing more than a dart throw ahead of the season.

🪂 RB Ty Chandler - MIN (Was: 200.7, Now: 210.3, Fall: 9.6)

The backup RB job in Minnesota is still up for grabs as neither Chandler nor rookie DeWayne McBride has made a great impression thus far. The Vikings could add a veteran back before the season starts or stay with who they have, but for fantasy purposes, things are cloudier.

🪂 TE Mike Gesicki - NEP (Was: 188, Now: 196.4, Fall: 8.4)

Nothing negative has happened with Gesicki over the last week to prompt an eight-spot slide, in fact, news of plenty two-TEs sets at camp should have fantasy managers more confident in the late-round pick.

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