💭What Even Is Week 2?

I’ll just assume you won all of your Week 1 matchups.

Congratulations.

To be honest, I hope you curb-stomped your biggest rival, sending fear to your league-mates. After all, it’s a side effect of reading this 4for4-centric newsletter.

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

Handicapping Week 2 of the NFL season is always challenging. We've been eagerly anticipating meaningful football games for nearly eight months. After spending all that time forecasting and projecting team and player performances across the league, we've finally seen each team play, and it's difficult to put it into proper context.

What data is actionable, and what's one week of noise?

What is small-sample-variance, and what is a usage or situational trend that we need to get ahead of before the public does?

At its best, the transition between weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season is a breeding zone for confirmation bias. At its worst, it's a chance to throw away all you thought you knew heading into kickoff last Sunday afternoon.

I CAN’T BELIEVE YOU DRAFTED JA’MARR CHASE OVER PUKA NUCUA!!

You don’t want to underreact as well. Gotta stay pliable. Head on a swiffle ‘round these parts.

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You can’t stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.

I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Top Quarterback Streaming Picks

Top Tight End Streaming Picks

Top Team Defense Streaming Picks

Top Kicker Streaming Picks

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. Don’t tell him I said this, but he’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

But I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

WE JUST MET LAST WEEK AND YOU WERE QUIET!

Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day. Remember, we can’t win ‘em all if we don’t win the first one.

I’m pretty good at this, too.

Am I better than Paulsen? It’s a good question. A lot of people are saying yes, and I’m a people-pleaser, so I hate arguing.

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:

Anthony Richardson (QB, Colts) - A 27% designed run rate, along with multiple weekly scrambles, creates a safe floor for the Colts’ rookie quarterback every week. Add in the opening week’s fastest situational-neutral pace and there’s a lot to like here in this matchup against the Texans.

A.J. Dillon (RB, Packers) - Sure, Patrick Taylor will be involved a bit, but with Aaron Jones nursing a hamstring injury, A.J. Dillon is set to see a spike in work this week against the Falcons.

Joshuah Kelly (RB, Chargers) - The matchup against Tennessee’s stout defensive front is less than ideal, but Kelly looked sharp in Week 1 with an increased workload, and now Austin Ekeler is out with a bum ankle. We’re projecting 16-17 touches here for Kelly.

Zach Moss (RB, Colts) - Deeper leagues should consider Zach Moss this week. The Colts backfield is messy, but Evan Hull is now out of the picture after a Week 1 injury, and Deon Jackson couldn’t get out of his own way against the Jaguars. Moss isn’t exciting, but volume is king at running back, and he may have a path to it this week.

Christian Kirk (WR, Jaguars) - You’re frustrated that Christian Kirk wasn’t great in Week 1, but he should see a much bigger role against the Chiefs. The Jaguars had a 55% pass rate last season, but in the two matchups against the Chiefs, it was 63% in Week 10 and then 66% in their Divisional Playoff matchup. Kirk should have a busy day working out of the slot.

Tutu Atwell (WR, Rams) - Tutu’s teammate, Puka Nucua, has been the belle of the ball after his Week 1 breakout, but Atwell’s performance was impressive as well. He and Nucua both finished with 119 receiving yards in Week 1, and Atwell worked primarily out of the slot but got vertical, finishing the week with an impressive 14.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

Dalton Kincaid (TE, Bills) - It was an underwhelming debut for Kincaid, but this week’s matchup against the Raiders will serve the rookie better than last week’s spot against the Jets. Kincaid’s usage was solid, though I’d like to see him get a bit more vertical against these slow-footed Raiders linebackers.

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Kenny Pickett (QB, Steelers) - With Diontae Johnson out and George Pickens less than 100%, it’s looking pretty thin for Kenny Pickett this week. The Browns’ defense is legit, and this is a tough spot to get on track after a lackluster Week 1.

Najee Harris (RB, Steelers) - Sorry, Steelers Nation. As I said in Week 1, you probably have to start Harris, but you did this to yourself by drafting him.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Commanders) - Again, if you have Terry McLaurin, it’s hard to sit him, but I’d temper my expectations this week. He’ll likely see a fair amount of Broncos’ elite cover corner Patrick Sertain this week. He shadowed Devante Adams for 64% of the Raiders dropbacks last week, and McLaurin could be in line for similar treatment.

Zach Ertz (TE, Cardinals) - It’s hard to advise sitting a tight end that was so heavily involved in Week 1. Ertz turned an 84.8% route participation rate into 10 targets. That’s elite usage at the tight end position. But since he turned that into 6 catches for 21 yards. There was literal dust on the field that needed to be swept off every time he fell down.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Survivor Strategy.

We’re giving you more Survivor Pool strategy help here courtesy of our friends at PoolGenius.

The Ravens advanced for me, so we’re still alive. The Vikings weren’t so kind to those who backed them in Week 1.

There are some big favorites this week, headlined by the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. That’s probably a good place to start for Week 2.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Here’s Week 2’s show. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

If you haven’t subscribed to 4for4, the betting subscription is the best bang for your buck. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, ranking, projection, you name it. It also gains you access to our subscriber Discord.

The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal.

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

New subscribers can go to 4for4.com/plans, use promo code “WEEK1,” and get 25% off the betting subscription.

This deal will get you everything you need to be profitable this football season, plus a free $100 to a site that you’re going to spend money on at some point this season anyway. Seems like a no-brainer, folks. 4for4.com/plans.

The Patriots are bringing back the ‘Pat the Patriot’ helmets along with the slick red jerseys for tonight’s matchup. Adjust accordingly.

If you like single-game DFS, Matt’s got you covered here in his showdown preview of tonight’s AFC East tilt.

Thanks for hanging out with me and all my Suits gifs this morning, and good luck to everyone in Week 2!