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The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Wednesday edition, we’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 1, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

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Now that the majority of drafts are over, the trade market is officially open for business. Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

RB Raheem Mostert 🐬

We’ve gotten some clarity in the Miami RB room with Jeff Wilson on IR and rookie Devon Achane working his way back from a shoulder injury he sustained during the preseason. Mostert appears to be the lead back and is coming off a decent finish as RB26 in half-PPR points, playing in 16-of-17 contests in 2022. This is a great move for those who drafted Jonathan Taylor, as their schedules pair nicely.

Give up: Any high-floor, low-ceiling WR like Marquise Brown or Juju Smith-Schuster

WR Marvin Mims 🐴

Thanks to a rough offseason at his position, Mims will be Denver’s WR2 next to Courtland Sutton. He was the first draft pick of the Sean Payton era, and the Broncos traded up to select him in this year’s second round. It may be tough to get him before we see what he can do, but if so, Mims is a great high-upside stash.

Give up: An RB3 on a rushing-needy team will likely suffice.

Sells 

WR Cooper Kupp 🐏

After missing the back half of last season with a high ankle sprain, Kupp is now dealing with a hamstring strain and his Week 1 status is still unknown. Hamstring issues can linger as we’ve seen in the past with Keenan Allen, among others. Trading away your likely first-round pick may not feel so great, but it won’t give you the warm fuzzies to have to wait out his possible recovery, either.

Look to Acquire: I’d aim for a Tier-2 RB like Josh Jacobs or Joe Mixon

WR Marquise Brown 🪺

Despite being the Cardinals’ WR1 heading into 2023, Brown is not set up for success from a fantasy standpoint. He’s looking at either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune tossing him the ball, with Arizona projected to lose every single contest this season. He may not be awful, but the mental gymnastics every week around starting him may wear on managers.

Look to Acquire: Any RB3 would likely help your roster

Hold

• RB Jonathan Taylor

• QB Joe Burrow

• RB Alvin Kamara

• TE Kyle Pitts

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

This early in the season I am basing my suggestions on last year’s data, and won’t include the obvious starts like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Jefferson. Here are some of the best matchups for Week 1.

Quarterbacks

🦁 Jared Goff @ Chiefs

Despite being Super Bowl Champions, the Chiefs weren’t so great at defending enemy QBs last season, ranking 31st in aFPA to the position. Goff has a star in Amon-Ra St. Brown along with two shiny talented rookies at his disposal, plus he gets a solid matchup to start off 2023.

⚜️ Derek Carr vs. Titans  

Tennesee was 28th in QB aFPA in 2022, allowing 19.2 fantasy points per tilt to opposing signal callers. Carr makes for a nice streamer this week if you don’t have a QB you can depend on or a solid QB2 in superflex or 2QB formats.

Running Backs

🐏 Cam Akers @ Seahawks

Akers starts his 2023 redemption tour with a wonderful divisional matchup in Seattle. The Seahawks yielded 24.6 aFPA per contest to enemy backfields which sat 29th at the end of the last season. With Cooper Kupp likely out, they may design more plays around Akers which bodes well for his possible output. The LA Ram makes for a solid RB2 this week.

🪺 J.K. Dobbins @ Texans

While I know we’re still working off last year’s data, Houston was dead last in the NFL at defending RBs, surrendering 28.5 aFPA to the position in 2022. Like Akers, Dobbins is looking for a bounce-back season and this first contest could be a successful start.

Wide Receivers

🪺 Drake London vs. Panthers

The sophomore WR may be someone you are on the fence about starting this week, but consider London based on his juicy matchup. Atlanta gets the Panthers at home, a defensive unit that ended last year dead last at defending opposing WRs with a whopping 33.2 half-PPR allowed to the position. London has fantasy WR2 potential in Week 1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

⚜️ Chris Olave vs. Titans

Not only were the Titans porous to QBs last year, but they also sat 31st in WR aFPA in 2022. Olave is in a great spot at home to continue what he started last year as a rookie. Consider the New Orleans’ wideout a fantasy WR2 with WR1 potential on Sunday against Tennessee.

Tight Ends

🐏 Tyler Higbee @ Seahawks

Seattle occupied the bottom of the basement last season when it came to TE aFPA, surrendering an average of 14.8 half-PPR points to enemies at the position. Higbee could see more targets with Kupp sidelined and the Seahawks may not have an answer. Consider the 30-year-old a fantasy TE1 to kick off his 20023 campaign.

⚡️ Gerald Everett vs. Dolphins

The Dolphins were the second-worst team when it came to TE aFPA in 2022, allowing 13.4 half-PPR points per game to opposing TEs. The Chargers host Miami on Sunday afternoon and the matchup makes Everett a decent option in larger formats or as a TE2 in leagues with that setting.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is 2022 aFPA rank

• Jordan Love @ Bears (24th)

• Russell Wilson vs. Raiders (29th)

• Antonio Gibson/Brian Robinson @ Cardinals (30th)

• Khalil Herbert vs. Packers (24th)

• Jordan Addison vs. Buccaneers (29th)

• Mike Evans/Chris Godwin @ Vikings (30th)

• Juwan Johnson vs. Titans (28th)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Streaming Week 1

Fantasy Football Kicker Streaming Week 1

Fantasy Football Tight End Streaming Week 1

Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Week 1

Waiver Wire Watch Week 1

Week 1 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Pick Advice (2023)

Week 1 IDP Waiver Wire: Pickups & Targets

The Training Room: Injury Updates Entering Week 1

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