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- 🪜ADP Movement After Free Agency
Welcome to this week’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter. I sort through the free-agent aftermath (well, the bulk of it) and we get some dynasty nuggets from Ryan McDowell of Dynasty League Football.
The legal tampering period between free agents and their prospective teams began on March 10th and got off to a newsworthy start. Here’s a look at how the fantasy landscape changed from March 4th to the 18th in terms of Underdog's best ball ADP.
*All ADP is courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.
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⬆️ Biggest Risers
Former Charger Josh Palmer inked a three-year deal with Buffalo, essentially replacing Mack Hollins, who’s now playing for AFC East rival New England. Palmer could find some new life with Josh Allen and OC Joe Brady after a disappointing year in LA. Since signing with the Bills, Palmer’s ADP jumped 51.7 spots from 19.11 to 15.08.
The Chiefs acquired Elijah Mitchell early in free agency who has shown flashes of fantasy goodness in between injuries. They also re-signed Kareem Hunt so it will likely be a painful RB committee with Isiah Pacheco, Mitchell, and Hunt. Mitchell’s ADP spiked nearly three rounds up to the 18th as an RB6 and makes for a decent final-round stab in early best-ball drafts. Pacheco is currently RB30 at pick 8.12.
Justin Fields found his third NFL home in New York and projects to be a decent fantasy QB if he can keep the starting gig. 4fo4’s Pranav Rajaram covered his full fantasy outlook in this article. Fields climbed 30+ spots in ADP since joining the Jets and is now a solid QB2 as a 12th-rounder.
Javonte Williams and Najee Harris will both be in new uniforms in 2025, the former with Dallas and Harris now in LA as a Charger. The RB room for the Cowboys is still in flux as they will likely spend some draft capital in April on the position. Williams’ ADP rose close to two and a half rounds but he’s still an RB3/flex, while Harris is in a much better situation on a run-heavy offense that will be without Gus Edwards and likely J.K. Dobbins.
However, the rumor mill has LA drafting an RB high next month so his role is still TBD. For now, Harris is just outside fantasy RB2 territory as the RB26 in Underdog drafts, with an ADP of 81.8.
⬇️ Biggest Fallers
Most of the largest falling ADPs are rookies after the NFL Combine or coach-speak rumors. Dobbins slid down more than a round in Underdog drafts likely due to Harris joining the Chargers and his lack of a deal for 2025.
Andrei Iosivas is catching strays from his teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins getting paid over the past few days. Iosivas is likely to earn the WR3 spot for the Bengals and still makes for a nice choice later in best ball drafts, and is even more appealing now that he’s fallen into the 17th round.
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Welcome to DLF Roundup. Each week, Ryan McDowell brings you a quick look at some of the dynasty happenings taking place over at Dynasty League Football.
If dynasty managers aren’t focused on the last free agency or trade buzz, they are prepping for the upcoming NFL Draft and the impending rookie drafts. There are many players that are falling through the dynasty cracks right now though. These are players the dynasty community as a whole seems to be ignoring this off-season, but that could prove to be a mistake.
In his latest article at DLF, Eric Hardter covers his top tier of Forgotten Dynasty Youth, including Chris Olave.
Chris Olave, WR NO
ADP: 48.0
Age: 24 years
Olave’s inclusion may come as a surprise to anyone familiar with my work, as I could never quite piece together why he was so highly valued. But then a funny thing happened – after maintaining a sterling ADP through the 2024 season despite injury and inefficient play, Olave’s status cratered in December and continued to crash last month.
I’ve heard the phrase “don’t hate the player, hate the ADP,” and I largely agree (even if my Penn State fandom makes me cringe hearing Olave’s name). And while I could understand the hype around Olave given his early success, I just didn’t see “first round startup draft” as smart spending of capital. Yes, he was putting up numbers – but through two seasons he provided fantasy returns as the PPR WR24 and PPR WR17. Again, good numbers, but they didn’t scream “projectability” to me.
Now? Olave is coming off the board as the WR26 per the February startup ADP. This is below either of his yearly finishes in his two healthy seasons, and despite the fact he’s only 24 years old. So no, even though I didn’t like him as a top 10-20 asset, his current valuation is a lot more digestible.
While still not cheap per se, if I can snag Olave for a mid-first-round pick in the 2025 rookie draft I’m snapping that up. The concussion concerns do temper my enthusiasm somewhat, but this is a player with a known PPR WR2 upside. That’s a guaranteed fantasy starter for almost any roster, and this window for purchase might not be open long.
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