šŸ”„ Hot-Start Targets in Fantasy Football

Early-Season Schedules, RB Roulette and More Nostalgia

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
August 08, 2023

Welcome to the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, a now twice-weekly fantasy football publication coming to your inbox all summer long.

At 4for4, we take using strength of schedule to a different level with our signature metric, schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA. By removing schedule bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner.

Making decisions on who to draft at ADP can come down to several factors, but for this segment, Iā€™ll point out some players who have an easier start to the season than others so that you can maximize points right out of the gate.

By ensuring a solid start to the year, beginning 3-1 or 4-0, we can vastly increase our odds of making it to the fantasy promised land. In a fantasy league where six teams out of twelve make the playoffs, there's a 92% chance of making the playoffs if you start 4-0; conversely, if you start 0-4, your odds are 9%.

I omitted elite players who youā€™d be drafting anyway and focused on more of the middle-to-late-round guys that we sometimes have difficulty distinguishing from one another.

āš”ļø Justin Herbert, QB (LAC)

I know I said I wouldnā€™t include elite players but Herbert has fallen to the seventh round this summerā€”incredible value regardless of schedule. The Los Angeles Chargers kick off the season against a Miami unit that sat 30th in QB aFPA last season and then six of their next eight opponents were ranked 24th or worse in the metric at the end of 2022.

Herbert has never finished below QB12 in his NFL career despite last seasonā€™s ā€œdown yearā€ and a new OC in Kellen Moore plus a plethora of talented weapons could propel him into the top five. Herbert is being drafted as the QB8 so far in early Yahoo leagues and is 4for4ā€™s seventh-ranked signal-caller.

šŸ§€ Aaron Jones, RB (GBP)

After two fantasy RB1 finishes in a row as the RB12 and RB9 in half-PPR points per game, respectively, Jones heads into this season slightly undervalued as the 14th rusher off Yahoo boards in early drafts (so he counts as non-elite). Naysayers fear his age (only 28) and the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, but as an offense, they were not great in 2022 and Jones still produced starting numbers.

He begins the season against division rival Chicago, a defensive unit that sat 28th in RB aFPA in 2022, with two of the next four matchups featuring teams ranked 22nd or worse in the metric last year. Their five opponents before the Packers' early Week 6 bye yielded an average of 21.78 aFPA to backs which could equal a nice start for Jones. Of course, his backfield mate and backup A.J. Dillon has the same soft start to the season and is ranked as 4for4ā€™s RB32 heading into 2023 with a Yahoo ADP of 7.12 (RB34).

āš”ļø Quentin Johnston, WR (LAC)

Obviously, Chargers receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have the same schedule as the rookie this season, but I included Johnston in this newsletter as someone to draft later in double-digit rounds when you are trying to distinguish amongst the unknown. The Chargers begin the 2023 season at home against Miamiā€™s 15th-ranked defense in WR aFPA, then get the Titans (31st), Vikings (30th), and Raiders (23rd) before a Week 6 bye. As an added bonus, after a quick rest, Johnston will face the Cowboys, who sat 26th last year in the metric.

Both Allen and Williams have their knocks, particularly in the injury department, so Johnston could have the opportunity to emerge as the teamā€™s No. 2 WR sooner rather than later in his first year as a pro. Right now, the 21-year-old will cost you a 10th-round pick as the WR51 and boasts the upside to return fantasy WR3/4 numbers.

šŸ‚ Dalton Schultz, TE (HOU)

Houston is not known for producing fantasy tight ends but this is a new era for the Texans and thereā€™s always hope. Schultz is coming off two fantasy TE1 seasons in a row with the Cowboys in half-PPR points per game and despite the projected downgrade in offense, could be his teamā€™s target leader in 2023.

Before their Week 7 bye, the Texans face just one defense that was ranked in single-digits in TE aFPA last season with juicy contests against the Jaguars and Falcons in the mix, who allowed an average of 11.3 half-PPR points to enemy tight ends per tilt. Schultz is 4for4ā€™s TE12, yet is being selected as the TE16 in early Yahoo drafts so thereā€™s value in the pick if you decide to wait to grab your starter this season.

  • The RB free agent carousel continues into August as several free agent backs have yet to find a home for the 2023 season. According to Jeff Howe of the Athletic, Ezekiel Elliott is drawing interest from the Patriots, Jets, and Cowboys, with the Jets also interested in Dalvin Cook, but the Patriots are out of the Cook sweepstakes.

  • Speaking of free agent RBs, Kareem Hunt met with the Saints on Monday morning which would murk up the waters in the New Orleans RB room for fantasy purposes.

  • QB Carson Wentz is still looking for a job and posted a photo of himself working out in all three of his former teamsā€™ gear. It appears that he was covering all of the bases.

The San Francisco 49ers were dominant in the 1980s, winning four Super Bowl titles throughout the decade. QB Steve Young joined the team via trade in 1987 but didnā€™t see starting snaps until an elbow injury sidelined Joe Montana in 1991. Young went on to throw for 33,124 yards and 232 touchdowns in his career with two NFL MVP awards and three total Super Bowl wins (one as the starter).

Here he is running sprints with RB Roger Craig during the Ninersā€™ 1989 training camp at Sierra College in Rocklin, California. Craig played in SF from 1983-1990, winning offensive player of the year honors in 1988, with a career rushing yard total of 8,189 and 56 touchdowns, plus another 4,911 receiving yards and 17 scores through the air.

Photo Credit: David Madison/Getty Images

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