🚀 July ADP Risers & Fallers

Plus NFL news!

In today’s newsletter, I go over some of the biggest movers in ADP over the last four weeks, with a pinch of NFL news.

Below you’ll find the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last month in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from June 9th to July 9th. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.

*all ADP courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP Tool

Quarterbacks 💪🏼

📈 Risers: Drake Maye, Patriots (ADP: 193.9, -5.8 spots)

It’s tough to decipher why Drake Maye is rising in ADP since it was reported in late June that veteran Jacoby Brissett is likely the starter for New England. It’s only half of a round but Maye is now leaving boards in the early 17th.

📉 Fallers: J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (ADP: 207.3, +12.6 spots) 

When asked about J.J. McCarthy’s expected playing time, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis responded with “Definitely not in Week 1. Probably not in the first quarter of the season. Potentially not even in the first half of the season.”

This was at the end of June, and with nothing happening right now at the Vikings facility to move the needle the other way, the rookie’s ADP has taken a full-round hit plus a few picks. Both McCarthy and presumed starter Sam Darnold are 15th-round selections right now in best ball drafts with zero redraft value.

Running Backs 🦵🏼

📈 Risers: Elijah Mitchell, 49ers (ADP: 178.7, -19.6 spots)

Hype season has come a little early for Elijah Mitchell this year, but here we are again. Beat writers observed that he’s the clear RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey and if he can stay healthy, should have a role in Fantasy Land in 2024.

Underdog drafters are now selecting Mitchell almost two full rounds earlier than they were a month ago, but he’s still nicely priced as the final pick of Round 15. He should be considered an RB5 with upside if anything were to happen to CMC.

Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (ADP: 154.0, -11.8 spots)

The Denver backfield is crowded and tough to navigate heading into 2024 but Jaleel McLaughlin has been gaining some steam in both hype and ADP over the last month. He had a very solid early camp and is coming off a season where he was first in rushing yards over expected per carry, third in yards before contact per carry, and 14th in yards after contact per carry among RBs with at least 50 carries.

If McLaughlin can earn Sean Payton's trust and deliver in the Broncos' new-look offense, there’s RB2 potential for the price of a low-end RB4.

📉 Fallers: Nick Chubb, Browns (ADP: 140.9, +14.1 spots)

There is still no timetable for the return of Nick Chubb after a brutal knee injury in Week 2 last season, but he is progressing and has resumed running. Chubb has fallen 35 draft spots since early May, with 20 coming in the last month.

His age (29) and recovery are a factor, but if Chubb can return to any semblance of his prior form this season, the Browns RB could be a decent value in the 12th round.

Wide Receivers 🧤

📈 Risers: Demario Douglas, Patriots (ADP: 155.4, -32.0 spots)

Sometimes it just takes a video or photo to get ADP moving and perhaps that was the case for Demario Douglas over the last month. Back on June 8th, the Patriots WR was shown running uphill barefoot catching passes and just a few days ago was seen working out down in Florida with a few other sophomore WRs.

Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers (ADP: 188.7, -22.7 spots)

With both Mike Evans and Trey Palmer sidelined during the start of the offseason program, Jalen McMillan received more reps with the first team and turned some heads. QB Baker Mayfield praised the rookie, saying he “attacks the ball, catches with his hands. Just explosive, a smooth route runner” via ESPN’s Jenna Laine.

McMillan has a pretty clear path to the WR3 role in Tampa and is very affordable as a current late-16th-round selection, despite his near 20 spot rise over the last four weeks.

📉 Fallers: Javon Baker, Patriots (ADP: 196.1, +11.6 spots)

The Patriots WR room is crowded and has been a wasteland for fantasy in recent seasons, with no wideout finishing above a fantasy WR3 since Julian Edelman in 2019 in half-PPR points per contest. This season, there are several inconsistent WRs and two rookie WRs, all fighting for whatever quality targets they get from either rookie Drake Maye or veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett.

As cloudy as the target tree is at the moment, it’s tough to consider Javon Baker as anything more than a late-round stab in best ball formats only.

Zay Jones, Cardinals (ADP: 204.0, +11.30 spots)

After experiencing a two-round jump in ADP as the WR who rose the most from May 6th to June 6th, Zay Jones fell 10 spots over the last four weeks. He’ll be fighting for scraps after Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride with the likes of Michael Wilson but is worth a dart throw in best ball leagues as part of a diverse portfolio.

Tight Ends 🍑

📈 Risers: Noah Fant, Seahawks (ADP: 172.5, -12.3 spots)

This-is-the-year-for-Noah-Fant whispers are building across the fantasy football landscape with each passing week. He has a new coaching staff, one that should throw more often, plus all those pesky TEs (Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson) are out of his way. Noah Fant was re-signed to a two-year deal worth $21M, so they invested in him, and he’s super cheap in all formats.

He’s a great best ball grab as your TE2 at 15.04 to stack with Geno Smith and any Seattle WR, or he would be a nice last-round gamble as a TE2 in redraft leagues.

📉 Fallers: Juwan Johnson, Saints (ADP: 207.5. +35.7)

It was announced on June 13th that Juwan Johnson would undergo foot surgery, sidelining him for “a while”, which sent his Underdog ADP into a three-plus round tailspin. Johnson’s absence opens the door for more Taysom Hill shenanigans, plus Foster Moreau enters the conversation for another offseason.

Hill is the only real fantasy-relevant beneficiary, but he’s listed as a QB on Underdog and is currently being drafted as the TE24 in the 17th round according to 4for4’s Multi-site ADP tool.

Check Out 4for4’s Incredible Sub Deals Right Now

Get a FREE 4for4 subscription and access all our premium content, tools, and reports. Must be a new depositor at one of our partner sites.

  • Free Agent RB Leonard Fournette, who is somehow only 29 years old, is planning to play in 2024. Will we see some playoff Lenny in fantasy circles?

  • 👑 Derrick Henry continues to do his thing. Fade him at your own risk this season in Baltimore.

Still not a 4for4 subscriber? Our new packages are out for the 2024/2025 season so take advantage of early🐦 pricing for access to award-winning rankings, highly actionable content for redraft, DFS and betting, and much more. Head to 4for4 and check it all out!

Here are the latest articles to drop, be sure to keep stopping by as there’s always something new!