🚀 July ADP Risers & Fallers

Below you’ll find the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last month in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from June 8th to July 8th. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.

*all ADP courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP Tool

Quarterbacks 💪🏼

📈 Risers: Aaron Rodgers, Steelers (ADP: 183.3, -14.5)

The painful saga of whether and where Aaron Rodgers will play in 2025 came to an end, and most of us couldn't be happier. His one-year deal with the Steelers caused a one-plus round spike in ADP, but he's still in fantasy QB3 territory as the QB28 in Underdog drafts. Rodgers is also the QB28 in 4for4's ranks.

📉 Fallers: Jaxson Dart, Giants (ADP: 212.4, +4.3)

He may earn that starting job at some point this season, but Jaxson Dart is behind Russell Wilson and maybe even Jameis Winston at this juncture of the summer. The rookie is nothing more than a "Dart" throw in best ball formats and is currently undraftable in redraft leagues.

Running Backs 🦵🏼

📈 Risers: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos ( ADP: 119.3, -62.2)

The former Raven and Charger signed with Denver in mid-June, causing a whopping 5+-round jump in draft stock. HC Sean Payton likes to use multiple backs, and rookie RJ Harvey is likely to be highly involved. However, J.K. Dobbins could be that goal-line guy and also has third-down prowess, so he makes for an interesting later-round option as the current RB39.

Nick Chubb, Texans (ADP: 182.7, -29.6)

A fresh start is on the menu for Nick Chubb, as he signed a one-year deal with Houston in early June. He's coming off a disappointing return from a brutal knee injury, and gets an incentive-laden 2025 as a backup to Joe Mixon. Chubb has been cleared to play after a foot injury derailed 2024 in Week 15. His 2.5-round spike in ADP lands Chubb at pick 16.03 in Underdog drafts as the RB56, which seems about right considering it's still unclear how the volume will be distributed for the Texans.

📉 Fallers: Jaydon Blue, Cowboys (ADP: 148.7, +15.6)

Drafters appeared to be flip-flopping on the Dallas RB room over the last month, as Jaydon Blue dropped a round and a half, while Miles Sanders is now being selected 30 spots earlier in best ball formats. The Cowboys’ backfield also features former Bronco Javonte Williams to murk it up even further. Blue was taking reps as a kick returner back in OTAs, which may have something to do with this slide, but until we know more, consider the rookie a low-end RB3 as he'll likely be eased into the mix.

Devin Neal, Saints (ADP: 215.2, +11.2)

The rookie was already having to claw his way to the backup spot behind Alvin Kamara in New Orleans with Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and then the Saints had to go out and sign Cam Akers in mid-June. Devin Neal's ADP has slipped just under a round as a result of Aker's presence, and now he's nothing more than a dart throw in case things shake his way.

Wide Receivers 🧤 

📈 Risers: Dont'e Thornton, Raiders (ADP: 190.7, -24.6)

The award for surprise minicamp darling of 2025 goes to the Raiders’ fourth-round pick, Dont'e Thornton. Beat reporter Levi Edwards wrote that the 22-year-old "has already become a top target" for Geno Smith back on June 20th, and others reported that he was taking first-team reps. We can't get too carried away here, as he'll likely still be behind Brock Bowers, Jacobi Meyers, and Ashton Jeanty in the target pecking order, but Thornton is still affordable as a fun stab in the 16th round.

Calvin Austin III, Steelers (ADP: 193.6, -13.1)

With George Pickens now in Dallas, Calvin Austin III likely assumes the WR2 role in Pittsburgh, and the signing of Aaron Rodgers probably gave them both a draft-stock bump. Austin has shown flashes in the past as a dual-threat and posted 36 receptions for 548 yards and four touchdowns last season, but sadly has to overcome a run-heavy Arthur Smith situation to be fantasy relevant in 2025.

📉 Fallers: Jack Bech, Raiders (ADP: 153.2, +25.2)

With the rise of Thornton, Jack Bech's ADP plummeted two full rounds in four weeks from the 11th down to the 13th in Underdog formats. He saw most of the reps with the second team during the Raiders minicamp, so there's that.

Luther Burden, Bears (ADP: 116.1, +16.9)

The rookie has been dealing with a soft tissue injury and remains unsigned with the start of training camp looming at the end of this month. Luther Burden should be ready and will likely get the WR3 run behind D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. He's the WR57 in Underdog drafts, but 4for4's John Paulsen is less confident and has him ranked as the WR90 in half-PPR scoring.

Tight Ends 🍑 

📈 Risers: Darren Waller, Dolphins (ADP: 188.8, -22.2)

Tight end turned rapper turned TE, Darren Waller, is back in the NFL as of July 1st, and he's now on the fantasy radar with a 20-spot spike in ADP. The Dolphins traded Jonnu Smith to the Steelers, leaving Pharaoh Brown, Jalin Conyers, and Julian Hill prior to acquiring Waller. The 32-year-old brings a different seam-stretching skillset to Miami than Smith and should have no trouble winning the TE1 gig. As the likely third target behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Waller appeals as a fantasy TE2 in 2025. He's currently a solid value as the TE26 on Underdog, the TE31 according to 4for4's Multi-Site ADP tool, while sitting as the TE19 in 4for4's half-PPR ranks.

📉 Fallers: Jonnu Smith, Steelers (ADP: 143.8, +40.5) and Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (ADP: 194.3, +23.4)

These two go hand in hand in their drop in draft stock. Smith was traded to Pittsburgh on June 30th as the TE9 in best ball drafts. Since joining the Steelers, the former Dolphins TE has fallen a whopping 41 draft spots to the 12.12, while Pat Freiermuth took damage as well, sliding nearly two full rounds to the 17.02. Coach speak has Smith being used in a hybrid role as a TE, a slot WR, and a fullback, and as a part of Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta in 2023 when Smith was the TE20, he lined up in the backfield 29 times, was an inline tight end 274 times, manned the the slot 268 times, per PFF.

The cannibalization possibilities are real here, but for now, unti we see more, consider Smith a TE2 with potential to sneak into the top 12 and Freiermuth a low-end TE2/3.