The July Dead Zone

A Case of the Dropsies with a Side of Patriots ADP Carousel.

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Heading into the 2021 season, one of the big off-season narratives was surrounding then-rookie Ja’Marr Chase’s drops during both training camp and the preseason. He went on to have a WR5 campaign, averaging 15.5 half-PPR points per game, despite those pesky drops creeping into the regular season for Chase.

I decided to look at the wideouts with the most drops over the past three years just for fun. As long as these guys get enough targets on their respective offenses to even it all out it really shouldn’t impact their output, and their team’s ability to air it out should benefit us for fantasy football overall.

Most WR Drops From 2020-2022

  1. Diontae Johnson - 26

  2. D.J. Moore - 25

  3. CeeDee Lamb - 22

  4. Ja’Marr Chase - 22 (in just 2 seasons)

  5. Deebo Samuel - 22

  6. Tee Higgins - 21

  7. Tyreek Hill - 20

  8. Stefon Diggs - 20

  9. DK Metcalf - 18

  10. Amari Cooper - 18

  11. Brandon Aiyuk - 17

  12. Gabe Davis - 17

  • Alvin Kamara agreed to plead no contest to his charges in a Las Vegas nightclub beating. This will presumably be good news for fantasy managers as it takes this from a felony to a misdemeanor, which has historically been a line in the sand for the NFL when it comes to repercussions. Kamar’s ADP will likely climb while rookie Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams could experience a slight slide in their draft stock.

  • It’s official-official that the New York Jets will be on HBO’s Hard Knocks this season. I can’t wait to see how quickly Aaron Rodgers corrupts Zack Wilson with hallucinogenics and witchcraft.

There weren’t many huge moves this week on Underdog but here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers in ADP from 7/6 - 7/13.

🚀 Tim Patrick (Broncos) - Was: 183, Now: 174.6, Jump: 8.4

This is the second week in a row with Patrick as the largest jumper in ADP, making it an over two-round climb in just 14 days. Patrick is having a solid offseason and was a minicamp darling for Denver according to James Palmer of the NFL Network. For now, Patrick will compete with rookie Marvin Mims for the WR3 spot but if he continues to turn heads once camps commence, he could solidify a larger role before the start of the regular season.

🚀 Nico Collins (Texans) - Was: 130.2, Now: 123.8, Jump: 6.4

In his July 6th column, ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime reported Collins as rookie C.J. Stroud’s “favorite target” so far in offseason practices. While it’s still early and actual training camps have yet to start, drafters are warming up to this new-look Houston offense, raising the ADP for the 24-year-old a half of a round.

🚀 DeVante Parker (Patriots) - Was: 200.3, Now: 194, Jump: 6.4

Parker inked a three-year extension worth up to $33 million on June 28th, with $14 million of it guaranteed. The Mac Jones will be way better with Bill O’Brien as OC hype has reached a decent fever pitch and fantasy managers are buying in. I’m more of a JuJu-Smith Schuster gal if I’m drafting a New England WR.

🪂 Tyquan Thornton (Patriots) - Was: 164.6, Now: 172.4, Slide: 7.8

.🪂 JuJu-Smith Schuster (Patriots) - Was: 109.9, Now: 116.4, Slide: 6.5

I lumped these two together because they’re from the same team and their fall in ADP makes very little sense. I suppose drafters are taking Parker’s extension as an indication of volume but it’s so incentive laden that it doesn’t carry much weight. If you think Mac Jones takes a leap then buy the dip on these two.

🪂 Jalin Hyatt (Giants) - Was: 192, Now: 195.8, Slide: 3.8

The ADP freefall continues for rookie Jalin Hyatt, as he’s slid down 54.7 draft spots over the last seven weeks. He was working with the third team in the Giants' last minicamp and it’s looking like a big uphill climb for volume for Hyatt in the crowded New York pass-catching corps.

It’s that time of year when a camp or workout photo gets the fantasy community lathered up to overdraft a player. This week I present Kadarius Toney, who despite his claims of being hacked on social media a few days ago, apparently still has time to hit the gym. Right now Toney is being drafted as WR36 in the seventh round in Yahoo drafts, but will have to fight for volume with Skyy Moore and a few others after Travis Kelce in the Chiefs offense.

The NFL is the king among sports in America and it’s not really a close race for the crown these days. What once was just a fall and winter activity for enthusiasts of the game of football has turned into a year-round investment. As a kid, I remember being so excited for the NFL Draft, which was broadcast only on the Saturday of the weekend. That event has now turned into a full-scale four-day party complete with live bands, satellite studios, and a huge live audience in whatever city is hosting. The NFL Combine was also created with humble beginnings back in 1982 and wasn’t even covered by the media until 2004.

We now have access to everything NFL all the time which is great for those of us in the fantasy space. However, there is one blind spot and it is right now. From the close of minicamps in mid-June, until training camps officially start towards the end of July, it’s a massive dead zone.

How dare the NFL not have something going on for us to overanalyze, obsess about, or even give us more insight into the fantasy season ahead?

YouTube Video of the Week: 5 RB Busts for 2023

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