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- Last Minute Week 5 Prep
The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.
I want to help you make those difficult start/sit decisions each week, so feel free to click my name above and follow me on Twitter (X?). I’ll answer a few of your questions here each week.
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We also get another early start this week (and we have one next week, too), with the Jaguars and Bills kicking off early Sunday morning “U.S. time” from London.
I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. With the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers on bye, plus the London game, we finally get a consumable number of 1 PM EST games! It’s not a great slate, but it gets better as the day goes on.
You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.
I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.
My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.
Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. He’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.
If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.
Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.
I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.
Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day. Remember, we can’t win ‘em all if we don’t win the first one.
I’m pretty good at this, too.
Am I better than Paulsen? It’s a good question. A lot of people are saying yes, and I’m a people-pleaser, so I hate arguing.
(Turns out, he learned how to open emails, and he finally saw this bit. Shocking no one, he didn’t like it. Thankfully, he’s in California because his thin skin would struggle in the cold winter air of Wisconsin.)
Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:
CJ Stroud (QB, Texans) - CJ Stroud leads the league in passer rating against Man coverage. Stroud and Texans are in Atlanta this week, and the Falcons have played man-to-man at the league's 2nd highest rate. Could be a sneaky good spot for this Texans passing offense.
Breece Hall (RB, Jets) - A lot has been made of Robert Salah’s ‘no pitch count’ remarks regarding Hall this week, and while I think the quote was not as exciting as the headline that everyone ran with, this is still a great spot for Hall against the Broncos. The Broncos defense has allowed the league's highest explosive rush rate at 9.5%, and teams are averaging 1.94 yards before contact per attempt against them. That's wild. Obviously, it's the worst in the league.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, Panthers) - Miles Sanders is not 100%, and Hubbard has been good when given the opportunity. In a game that should feature more negative game script for Carolina, Hubbard could flash on passing games if you’re in need of a starter this week.
Nico Collins (WR, Texans) - I already mentioned the spot for Stroud, and Collins will likely continue to be his top target. Collins leads all wide receivers in yards per route run against man coverage this season.
Kalif Raymond (WR, Lions) - Raymond is likely available in your league, and makes for a nice plug-and-play option in deep leagues this week. Raymond will likely take over Amon-Ra St. Brown’s slot duties, and Goff and the Lions are one of the league’s top offenses when they’re at home.
Darnell Washington (TE, Steelers) - Washington is a ginormous human being, and an incredible shorts-and-a-tshirt athlete. The rookie is set to get the first crack at replacing Pat Freiermuth’s reps, and since the position is mostly a wasteland, why not take a gamble on his size and speed combo?
Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:
Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) - Another tough spot for Dak against the 49ers. With Dallas getting healthy along the offensive line, I expect they’ll try to control this game early with their running game, which hurts Prescott’s volume.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots) - ‘Mondre has a tough matchup, isn’t fully healthy, and is likely losing a bit of base down work to Zeke Elliott. It’s tough to put him in your lineup this week.
Courtland Sutton (WR, Broncos) - With Sutton playing mostly on the outside, he’s likely set up to see the most Sauce Gardner coverage among the Broncos receivers this week. That’s enough to keep me away.
For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.
Week 6
Bye’s continue with the Packers and Steelers taking a seat. There are some valuable fantasy assets in there, so why wait until next week and battle your league mates on the waiver wire? Get ahead of things now.
Still starting Kenny Pickett or Jordan Love? You might want to look at Joshua Dobbs.
Cubba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, and Jaleel McLaughlin could all replace Najee Harris’s weekly production and you wouldn’t even notice.
Did someone drop Elijah Moore, Josh Palmer, or Quentin Johnston because of their Week 5 bye?
Each league is different, as it relates to both waiver wire rules and roster depth, so it’s difficult to make recommendations, but you should be using the time before your wire closes to look ahead because most of your league mates aren’t. Jen covers more of that here.
Survivor Strategy
The Eagles made folks sweat last week, and the Commanders already derailed some Week 6 picks. Tough scene.
Week 6 has two big home favorites with the Lions and Dolphins. I don’t think you’re going to find many instances where the Lions are 9.5-10-point favorites, so this feels like a good spot for them.
Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.
TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.
We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.
If you haven’t subscribed to 4for4, the betting subscription is the best bang for your buck. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, ranking, projection, you name it. It also gains you access to our subscriber Discord.
The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal. (Spoiler alert: there’s a Sunday Night Football play at the bottom of this newsletter…)
Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.
New subscribers can go to 4for4.com/plans to learn more! We’ve discounted the subscription since we’re now in Week 5, plus promo code “PROPDROP” will save you an extra 25%!
The past two Cowboys’ seasons have ended at the hands of the 49ers, and these are, once again, two of the best teams in the NFC. This should be a fantastic primetime battle.
If you’re looking to play single-game DFS, Matt has you covered for this one.
If you want to know how “in the weeds” we get on the betting side, I offer you Exhibit A:
I expect big things from Christian McCaffrey here as well and will be looking to back the 49ers at -3 if it moves that way (currently, -3.5).
Thanks for hanging out with me. Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use promo code “NOONAN10” for 10% off of a betting subscription (which includes EVERYTHING on 4for4)!