👨🏽‍🏫 Last-minute Week 4 Prep 🏈

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

I want to help you make those difficult start/sit decisions each week, so feel free to click my name above and follow me on Twitter (X?). I’ll answer a few of your questions here each week.

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We also get an early start, with the Falcons and Jaguars kicking off the 2023 international games in London (assuming you aren’t already up watching The Ryder Cup).

I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. Since the NFL still can’t figure out how this schedule, we need to know which of the 9 early games get cut from the TV. Why they continue to do 9 early and 3 late is beyond me, but here we are. Broncos and Bears seem like the easy choice here, but both defenses are so bad it might actually create some entertaining football.

You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.

I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Top Quarterback Streaming Picks

Top Tight End Streaming Picks

Top Team Defense Streaming Picks

Top Kicker Streaming Picks

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. He’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day. Remember, we can’t win ‘em all if we don’t win the first one.

I’m pretty good at this, too.

Am I better than Paulsen? It’s a good question. A lot of people are saying yes, and I’m a people-pleaser, so I hate arguing.

(Turns out, he learned how to open emails, and he finally saw this bit. Shocking no one, he didn’t like it. Thankfully, he’s in California because his thin skin would struggle in the cold winter air of Wisconsin.)

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:

Justin Fields (QB, Bears) - It’s been a disappointing start, to say the least, for Fields, considering he was coming off the board early during draft season. This is almost a make-or-break start for his fantasy prospects. The Broncos have been abysmal, and they play a high rate of man coverage, which bodes well for willing rushers at quarterback.

Kyren Williams (RB, Rams) - The Rams are talking about addressing the position because Kyren Williams will struggle to hold up with this workload, but for now, they’re leaning on him. If you stumbled into this, keep rolling him out.

D’Andre Swift (RB, Eagles) - We weren’t sure what to expect with the running back usage in Philadelphia in Week 3, but even in a shared backfield, D’Andre Swift is a play. His passing game usage and inside-the-five touchdown upside is limited because of Jalen Hurts, but Swift looks explosive and has been incredibly efficient.

Tank Dell (WR, Texans) - The rookie has flashed big-time upside through two weeks and is making the most of his opportunities in Houston. Dell has 17 targets in the past two weeks, translating to a 23.3 and 24.1% target share over two starts. He was CJ Stroud's first read on 31.6% of his Week 3 dropbacks against the Jaguars, which led the team.

Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens) - Injuries at wide receiver for Baltimore have opened up a clear path to volume for Zay Flowers. It’s a difficult matchup, but he’s still an excellent start and should see at least 25% of Lamar Jackson’s targets in this spot.

Logan Thomas (TE, Commanders) - The Eagles have struggled with cluster injuries over the middle of the field, so it’s the easy place to attack them. Logan Thomas is back after missing Week 3, but he was a target hog in Weeks 1 and 2. It’s a good spot for passing volume, given the fact that the Commanders are more-than-a-touchdown underdog.

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) - I think the Patriots will try to take the air out of the football in this one, limiting the volume of the Dallas offense as a result. Prescott will likely have a fine day, but he’s not carrying your team this week.

Joe Mixon (RB, Bengals) - You likely need to start Mixon if he’s on your team, and the volume should be okay, but the Titans’ run defense stifles opposing running back efficiency. A spike in passing game looks will help, but unless he falls in the end zone, it could be a disappointing box score.

Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets) - You don’t deserve this fate, and neither does Wilson, but here we are.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Week 5

Bye’s start next week with the Chargers, Browns, Seahawks, and Buccaneers taking a seat. There are some valuable fantasy assets in there, so why wait until next week and battle your league mates on the waiver wire? Get ahead of things now.

Missing Justin Herbert? Sam Howell’s likely available, and the Commanders play the Bears. Daniel Jones will likely be in keep-up mode early in next week’s trip to Miami.

Marvin Mims is reportedly getting a longer look moving forward. That could start against the Bears, and if he blows up, you’ll have to go deep into your pockets to get him. Why not make the move now if he’s available? With Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, and D.K. Metcalf, among others, on bye next week, you’ll likely need a replacement.

Each league is different, as it relates to both waiver wire rules and roster depth, so it’s difficult to make recommendations, but you should be using the time before your wire closes to look ahead because most of your league mates aren’t.

Survivor Strategy.

I got too cute last week and backed the Jaguars. I wasn’t alone, but that doesn’t make me feel any better. It was a tough week for some of the chalk. If you haven’t used the 49ers yet, this seems like a great spot to do so. The Eagles are the other big moneyline favorite, but they lost against the Commanders at home late last season, so I assume that’ll give some a slight bit of pause. For the record, I’m not concerned.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

If you haven’t subscribed to 4for4, the betting subscription is the best bang for your buck. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, ranking, projection, you name it. It also gains you access to our subscriber Discord.

The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal. (Spoiler alert: there’s a Sunday Night Football play at the bottom of this newsletter…)

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

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Chiefs (and friends) in New York in primetime. Don’t fight it, just lean into it.

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