🤝 Let's Make A Fantasy Football Deal

Fantasy Marketplace and Some Good Matchups

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
September 27, 2023

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Wednesday edition, we’ll cover trade candidates, the best matchups for Week 4, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Managers without a win or with just one victory will likely be looking to make some big moves this week to get their seasons on track. Using 4for4’s powerful trade evaluator tool, I’ll highlight players to buy, sell, and hold each week, but be sure to head over and check it out yourself based on your specific roster settings.

Buys

WR Chris Olave ⚜️

Olave has been as advertised but is flying under the radar in terms of hype so far in 2023. He’s the overall WR14 in half-PPR scoring and is averaging 100.7 points and 10.7 targets per contest. He’s in the buy low-ish region this week not due to a lack of production, but his QB Derek Carr sustained a shoulder injury and could be sidelined for several weeks. Olave should be just fine with Jameis Winston under center but the manager in your league may think otherwise.

Give up: A fringe RB1/2 like Aaron Jones or Jahmyr Gibbs

RB Brian Robinson 🪖

Week 3 was a down one for Robinson but negative game script kept him off the field more than we’d like. There will be better days ahead for this efficient runner and with Antonio Gibson likely in the dog house due to another fumble, Robinson could take on more touches in the coming weeks.

Give up: A WR like Chris Godwin or Amari Cooper

Sells 

WR Courtland Sutton 🐴

Still technically the WR1 for Denver, Sutton is currently averaging 11.8 half-PPR points per contest which is WR28. The Broncos schedule gets very difficult after this week’s tilt against the Bears and they’re not looking like a very productive football team. You can hold him if you’re WR-needy but if you have some depth, I’d try to flip Sutton.

Look to Acquire: Aim for an RB2/3 like Isiah Pacheco or D’Andre Swift

WR Gabe Davis 🦬

Davis has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games but will be too inconsistent moving forward to count on that production. He’s WR59 in targets per game with only five and has been up and down as far as beautiful routes run and dropped passes so far in 2023. He’ll have some solid weeks but also plenty of games that will make you want to throw things.

Look to Acquire: An RB3 like Jerome Ford

Hold

  • WR Calvin Ridley

  • RB Raheem Mostert

  • RB Kyren Williams

  • WR Brandon Aiyuk

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

⚡️Justin Herbert vs Raiders

I’d say it’s a consensus no-brainer to start Herbert every week but I actually played against a team last week that started Trevor Lawrence while the Charger QB rode the bench. Herbert gets a banger of a matchup at home Sunday against a Raider defensive unit that ranks 25th so far in QB aFPA.

⛏️ Brock Purdy vs. Cardinals

Arizona is dead last against QBs this season, allowing 26.7 aFPA to opposing signal callers each week. Purdy may have Brandon Aiyuk back in the mix which just adds to his appeal this week.

Running Backs

🦬 James Cook vs. Dolphins

Cook is the RB14 in half-PPR scoring through the first three weeks and gets a Miami defense that is allowing 112.3 rushing yards per contest, the sixth most in the NFL so far this season.

 🐶 Jerome Ford vs. Ravens

Baltimore sits 23rd in RB aFPA after three games and Ford will have a chance to lead the Browns’ backfield again this week. This should be a great division rival matchup with plenty of ground-and-pound action.

Wide Receivers

🐏 Puka Nacua @ Colts

Last week wasn’t the best for Nacua but he still managed five catches for 72 yards and gets a juicy matchup in Week 4 against Indy. The Colts are yielding 36.0 half-PPR points per game to enemy WRs and he’ll get plenty of volume with Cooper Kupp still at least two weeks away from a return.

🐂 Nico Collins vs. Steelers

Emerging as the go-to WR for rookie QB C.J. Stroud, Collins should bounce back from a pedestrian performance at the expense of the Steelers 28th ranked unit in WR aFPA. Fire him up in the flex or as a WR3.

Tight Ends

 🐆 Evan Engram vs. Falcons

Historically, the Jaguars do some of their best work in London. Also sweetening the pot is the fact that the Falcons rank 30th in TE aFPA heading into this matchup. Engram has top-5 potential this week.

🦁 Sam LaPorta @ Packers

The rookie is continuing to crush expectations in his first year as a pro and has another pretty solid contest this week. The Packers sit 20th in TE aFPA and LaPorta should see plenty of action in this NFC North showdown.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is 2023 aFPA rank

  • Jared Goff @ Packers (26th)

  • Matthew Stafford @ Colts (30th)

  • Javonte Williams @ Bears (31st)

  • Khalil Herbert vs. Broncos (32nd)

  • Brandon Aiyuk vs, Cardinals (26th)

  • Jakobi Meyers @ Chargers (31st)

  • Gerald Everett vs. Raiders (32nd)

  • Logan Thomas/Cole Turner @ Eagles (23rd)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

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