🏃NFL Sunday Morning Rundown

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

We’ll tackle start/sits, DFS, Survivor pool strategy, and a bit of betting as well.

Before we jump into things, I have to tell you about this deal that we have going on right now.

Get Classic for $2.99, Pro for $4.44, DFS for $6.99, or Betting for $19.99 for the rest of the 2023 season, a bargain for full access to the most accurate fantasy football website since 2010!

YES, this also applies to upgrades!

$19.99 for the betting subscription is WILD. It feels like the season is winding down, but we still have a long way to go when you consider the NFL playoff season goes until early February. Oh, and we cover NBA betting extensively as well, along with anything else you can responsibly wager on. Come hang out with us!

Head to 4for4.com/plans and take advantage! No promo code needed!

I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. Only 10 games on Sunday, which I enjoy. It’s easier to consume, especially with just 6 in the early window, compared to the 8 or 9 that we see at times.

You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses. Out with the old, in with the new.

I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Top Quarterback Streaming Picks

Top Tight End Streaming Picks

Top Team Defense Streaming Picks

Top Kicker Streaming Picks

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. He’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day.

I think it’s important to note that I dished out some absolute bangers here last week, with Jordan Love, Devin Singletary, Jayden Reed, and Rondale Moore all popping off. You’re welcome.

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today:

Gardner Minshew (QB, Colts)

Teams pass against the Bucs at the third-highest rate in neutral game scripts, and we've seen Shane Steichen adjust his game plan based on his opponent. The Bucs' secondary is beat up, too. Jamal Dean is out, and Carlton Davis has missed a bunch of time of late and might miss this one, too.

Jaylen Warren (RB, Steelers)

Since Week 7, Jaylen Warren ranks second in rushing yards and first in missed tackles forced but is just 33rd in attempts. That's how you lose your job as an offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. Najee Harris isn’t going away, but neither is Warren, and the Bengals are getting gashed on the ground this season.

Kyren Williams (RB, Rams)

Williams returns after missing the past few games and gets a great matchup against a beat-up Cardinals defense. He might not see 100% of the snaps like he did prior to getting hurt, but he’s still looking at an RB1-type workload.

Josh Downs (WR, Colts)

See Minshew, Gardner above. Downs works primarily in the slot, and Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high 86.8 receiving yards per game to slot receivers to go along with 6.1 receptions, which is the fourth-most in the league.

Khalil Shakir (WR, Bills)

Dalton Kincaid isn’t the only one who’s benefited from Dawson Knox being out of the lineup. Shakir’s seen a spike in route participation in Buffalo’s three-receiver sets, and Shakir has flashed in his new role. In a spot where I’m expecting a lot of points, this is a great spot for the second-year slot receiver.

David Njoku (TE, Browns)

Denver has allowed the most receiving yards in the league to tight ends, along with a league-high nine yards per target. Strong safety Kareem Jackson is suspended again, so the matchup is even better. Njoku saw an insane 15 targets last week and has now been targeted on 32.4% of his routes with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback.

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Russell Wilson (QB, Broncos)

Wilson is all or nothing right now. He’s checking down at a crazy-high rate, and he loves to take shots deep. Nothing in between. The Browns allow the fewest average plays per game on the season, and I’m not expecting Wilson’s deep shots to be successful against the Browns, even with Denzel Ward out of the lineup.

Dameon Pierce (RB, Texans)

Pierce is back after missing the last three games, but I’d hold off on inserting right back in your lineup. Devin Singletary played well in his absences, and the Jaguars’ run defense is stout. Let’s see how the touches are split here before starting either one of them with confidence.

Amari Cooper (WR, Browns)

Amari gets a tough matchup against Patrick Sertain and a surging Broncos defense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s starts have led to a dip in production and targets for Cooper, plus he’s on the road, which is a thing if you buy into Cooper’s massive home/road splits.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Week 13

The last BIG week of byes. 

The Ravens, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, and Giants are off in Week 13.

There are a lot of weekly starters among those six teams, so why wait until next week and battle your league mates on the waiver wire? Get ahead of things now.

Each league is different, as it relates to both waiver wire rules and roster depth, so it’s difficult to make recommendations, but you should be using the time before your wire closes to look ahead because most of your league mates aren’t. Jen covers more of that here.

It’s a two-way street around here. You can’t add anyone without cutting someone else, but fear not; we cover that for you here in this week’s Dead Weight Report.

Survivor Strategy

Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, we can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week. Hopefully, some of you are still alive and fighting in Week 12. Some of the Thanksgiving Day games (and Miami on Friday) were your best options this week (Eh, Detroit?!).

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Following this methodology, the top options on the board this week are the Chiefs are the best option on the board.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

As you saw at the top, we also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

Ravens @ Chargers

The Chargers have an innate ability to play to the level of their opponent, so I think they get up for this one against the Ravens, and they need it to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Baltimore currently holds the top seed in the AFC playoff race and also, somehow, has Pittsburgh and Cleveland on their heels in the division. I think they’re too much for the Chargers in this spot, I like Baltimore to win and cover.

If you’re looking to play single-game DFS, Matt has you covered for this one.

Thanks for hanging out with me. Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and take advantage of this Thanksgiving special!