⚠️ One Player to Fade in Each of the First 5 Rounds

Training Camp Info & News, too!

We are 79 days from the Chiefs hosting the Ravens in the Week 1 TNF kickoff! There is still plenty of time to hit those pools, lakes, golf courses, water parks, and everything summer. 👙 🕶️ ☀️

The NFL cycle rolls along as usual so here’s this week’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter where I give out some early-round fades and chat about some recent news.

The NFL no longer has an offseason. However, this period between minicamps and training camps ramping up in July is the closest thing. With no major news to pour over or videos to get us overhyped on certain players, I thought I’d give out one player in each round that I’m not sold on for 2024.

*All ADP is via 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.

Round 1

Jahymr Gibbs (DET): I’m actually ok with anyone in Round 1 regardless of scoring format, considering all the RBs are pass catchers with all eight WRs among the elite. However, I had to pick someone so it’s Gibbs. With a stacked offense and David Montgomery also in the mix, his output may be more of a Round 2 guy at the end of the season.

Round 2

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)- He will likely have an incredible NFL and fantasy career and may even be solid in 2024, but with an ADP of 13.5, he's the highest rookie WR we've seen drafted, despite landing in an Arizona offense that's 22nd in projected points this season.

The Cardinals attempted 555 passes in 2023, which sat 24th among the league's offenses, and were 29th in pass rate over expected (PROE) and 30th in pass percentage when in neutral game script. Harrison would have to be an absolute beast with a huge step forward (or backward to 2021) from Kyler Murray to return his current draft capital.

Round 3

Zay Flowers (BAL) - The third round features a mix of NFL team’s WR1s and WR2s. Flowers is technically the WR1 for Baltimore, but he’s likely the No. 2 option for Lamar Jackson behind Mark Andrews. With Andrews healthy from Weeks 2-10 last season, the TE posted 12.2 half-PPR points per game on 6.6 targets, while Flowers turned 6.2 targets per contest into 8.2 half-PPR points in that timeframe. Throw Derrick Henry in the fold in 2024 and it could be more difficult for Flowers to return third-round value.

Round 4

Travis Etienne (JAX) - It was a tale of two halves in 2023 for Etienne as he averaged 22.3 touches per game resulting in 106.2 total yards per contest from Weeks 1-8, then dropped down to 16.3 touches in Weeks 10-18, which translated to 70.5 combined yards per tilt. The Jags should see improvement as a whole, but their o-line was one of the worst in the league. I don’t hate Etienne the player, but his draft capital may be a tad high.

Round 5

Josh Jacobs (GBP) - The volume should be there for Jacobs in Green Bay this season but he may not return the RB12 value of his current ADP. Last year was a shortened season due to a quad strain, but Jacobs saw dips in all efficiency metrics from 2022, and not knowing which RB will show up this fall, it’s difficult to see him as anything more than a shaky fantasy RB2.

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  • Training camp dates and locations have dropped for all 32 NFL teams. Plan accordingly.

  • The Hard Knocks: In Season franchise will feature an entire division for the first time. This year’s version will follow the AFC North and debuts on Tuesday, Dec. 3 at 9 p.m. ET/PT on HBO or stream it on Max. Get that 🍿popped, buttered, and ready!

  • Monday was National Mascot Day and I, nor the NFL socials, couldn’t let it go by without bringing back this bizarre video. Here’s Titans’ mascot T-Rac (a raccoon for some reason) eating a cheerleader back in 2010.

This week’s new uniform drop is courtesy of the Baltimore Ravens. It’s not my favorite version of the Ravens’ logos but it looks pretty clean.

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