⚠️ One Player to Fade in Each of the First 5 Rounds

mascot fun & a dynasty nugget, too!

We are 79 days from the Eagles hosting the Cowboys in the Week 1 TNF kickoff! There is still plenty of time to hit those pools, lakes, golf courses, water parks, and everything summer. 👙 🕶️ ☀️

The NFL cycle rolls along as usual, so here’s this week’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, where I give out some early-round fades and chat about some recent news.

The NFL no longer has an offseason. However, this period between minicamps and training camps ramping up in July is the closest thing. With no major news to pour over or videos to get us overhyped on certain players, I thought I’d give out one player in each round that I’m not sold on for 2024.

*All ADP is via 4for4’s Multi-site ADP Tool.

Round 1

Ashton Jeanty (LV): I’m actually ok with anyone in Round 1 regardless of scoring format, considering all the RBs (minus King Henry) are pass catchers with all six WRs among the elite. However, I had to pick someone, so it’s Jeanty. Rookies are rookies and Vegas is rebuilding, so he could underperform that hefty pricetag.

Round 2

Josh Allen (BUF)- Admittedly, this is a total cop op pick here. I love Josh Allen as a real-life player and for fantasy purposes, but I am not someone who will draft a QB in the second round of a redraft league. The fantasy points missed out on from the elite players at the skill positions are just too high compared to the differential in QB points. Last season, Allen averaged 22.3 fantasy points per contest, while Baker Mayfield ended with 21.5, with Jared Goff posting 19.1, as 14th and 10th rounders, respectively.

Round 3

Tyreek Hill (MIA) - Hill had a brutal 2024, averaging just 10.5 in half-PPR scoring per contest as the WR33. There are concerns with his recent wrist surgery, his off-field antics, age, and the fact that he had a very low yards per route run in 2024.

Round 4

D.J.Moore (CHI) - Yes, Keenan Allen is gone, but the Bears added rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, which could create even more target competition for a WR who is coming off a fantasy WR3 season, but is being drafted as the WR21. There are just too many mouths to feed in this evolving offense for me to invest in Moore this early.

Round 5

Sam LaPorta (DET) - I know we all want to see LaPorta return to his 2023 breakout numbers, but it could be difficult. Jameson Williams’ emergence may play a factor in limiting targets, and the departure of playcaller Ben Johnson for the Bears' HC gig is a concern. LaPorta is projected for a total of 120 points in half-PPR scoring in 4for4’s ranks, and TEs who can be had much later, like Jonnu Smith and Tucker Kraft, have similar projections.

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  • Yesterday was National Mascot Day and I, nor the NFL socials, couldn’t let it go by without bringing back this bizarre video. Here’s Titans’ mascot T-Rac (a raccoon for some reason) eating a cheerleader back in 2010.

  • The Colts and Broncos got in on the action, too.

This week’s new uniform drop is courtesy of the LA Chargers. Fresh alternates are being released on 7/15, but they offer a sneak peek here.

This week, I kicked off a new series at Dynasty League Football that digs into our various sets of dynasty rankings. In each article, I’ll interview one of our dynasty rankers, asking them about the three players they are highest and lowest on compared to DLF consensus rankings.

First up in the Dynasty Rankings Outliers series was Addison Hayes. Here’s what he had to say about Patriots’ rookie wideout Kyle Williams…

1. Kyle Williams has been a big post-Draft riser after earning earlier-then-expected draft capital and landing in a spot where he could contend for a starting role early in his career. You’re above-consensus on Williams. How much does Stefon Diggs’ presence impact that ranking? Also, does the Patriots’ history of whiffing on wide receiver prospects concern you at all with Williams?

Addison Hayes: I love Kyle Williams. He is by far my favorite and probably most-rostered rookie in this year’s class. And to my credit, I was high on Williams coming into the draft and was hopeful he would be a Day Two pick to hopefully a good landing spot, and boy did both things come true. Williams is this year’s sleeper breakout rookie receiver, like Brian Thomas Jr. was last year and Rashee Rice was in 2023 – both of whom I was heavily in on as rookies.

To answer the questions about Stefon Diggs’ presence and the Patriots draft history bluntly – no, I don’t care at all about either. My pre-draft comp for Williams was actually Diggs, so for him to be able to watch and learn with the veteran is only beneficial, I think. Diggs himself is also a 32-year-old receiver coming off an ACL injury on effectively a one-year deal, as he can be cut next year to save almost $17 million in cap space. Sure, he’s looked good in the clips of camp we’ve seen already, but there’s a world where Diggs is just not who he was prior to the injury, especially at another year older.

To speak to the Patriots’ wide receiver history, it doesn’t bother me. Each year and each prospect are independent of each other, even if they’re drafted to the same team. Plus, they have a new general manager, Eliot Wolf, who took over in 2024 and has only been with the Patriots organization since 2020, so any draft decisions New England made before him feel disingenuous to apply to Williams. Granted, Wolf seems to have swung and missed on Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, but Williams is a substantially better prospect than both guys, and Wolf was the director of player personnel and operations in Green Bay when they drafted Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams, so I also think he’s capable of some slam dunk picks.

Kyle Williams is a really good prospect. Prior to the NFL Draft, he was actually tied with Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Travis Hunteras the top receivers in this class based on my model, then draft capital separated them out. He’s decently sized, runs a 4.4, is a great route runner and one of the best separators in the entire class, and has production to back it up at two programs in college. Plus, he has a better-than-fair chance to be Drake Maye’s WR1 for the foreseeable future. Williams is probably the most slept on receiver in this entire class, and I would not be shocked if he were a top-15 dynasty wide receiver this time next year.

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