📺 Playoff Picture and More!

Some Good Matchups for Week 16

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
December 20, 2023

Together with GameBlazers: The Next Generation of Fantasy Sports

I know we’ve reached the time of year when dates and days don’t seem to matter, but it’s Wednesday for those not keeping track. Today’s newsletter features a handy snapshot of the current playoff standings, some favorable matchups, and of course, the latest at 4for4.com. Let’s get to it.

AFC

Clinched Playoff Spot 

  1. 🪺 Ravens (11-3)

In the Hunt

  1. 🐬 Dolphins (10-4),

  2. ↠ Chiefs (9-5)

  3. 🐆 Jaguars (8-6)

  4. 🐶 Browns (9-5)

  5. 🐯 Bengals (8-6)

  6. 🧲 Colts No. 7 (8-6)

On the Bubble

  1. 🐂 Texans (8-6)

  2. 🦬 Bills (8-6)

  3.  🟡⚫️ Steelers (7-7)

  4. 🐴 Broncos No. (7-7)

  5. 🏴‍☠️ Raiders (6-8)

  6. ⚡️ Chargers (5-9)

NFC

Clinched Playoff Spot

  1. ⛏️ 49ers (11-3)

  2. 🦅 Eagles (10-4

  1. 🤠 Cowboys (10-4)

In the Hunt

  1. 🦁 Lions (10-4)

  2. 🏴‍☠️ Buccaneers (7-7)

6. 😈 Vikings (7-7)

  1. 🐏 Rams (7-7)

On the Bubble

  1. 🪺 Seahawks (7-7)

  2. ⚜️ Saints (7-7),

  3. 🪺 Falcons (6-8)

  4. 🧀 Packers (6-8),

  5. 🧢 Giants (5-9)

  6. 🐻 Bears (5-9)

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

 🦬 Josh Allen @ Chargers

Last week was Allen’s second-lowest output after Week 1 as he only attempted 15 throws against Dallas. He heads to LA this week to face a Chargers defense that ranks 25th in QB aFPA with the Bills primed for a run to the playoffs.

⚜️ Derek Carr @ Rams

He’s been injured and is not the most consistent real-life QB, but Carr is in a great spot for fantasy production this week. He also heads to LA for a contest against the Rams, who are yielding the ninth most aFPA to opposing QBs in 2023.

Running Backs

✈️ Breece Hall vs. Commanders

His receiving work has escalated in recent weeks which has helped Hall from a fantasy perspective. Another boost in store for the RB is the Commanders’ defense, which surrenders 26.2 in half-PPR aFPA per contest to enemy backs this season.

↠ Isiah Pacheco vs. Raiders

Barring any setbacks, Pacheco is cleared to play on Monday night following shoulder surgery a few weeks ago. He’ll get a home tilt against a Vegas defensive unit that’s been giving up the fourth-most aFPA to backfields this season.

Wide Receivers

😈 Justin Jefferson vs Lions

In his first full game back since Week 5, Jefferson caught 7-of-10 targets for 84 yards against the Bengals last week. He’ll face a mediocre secondary for the Lions on Sunday, one that sits 26th in WR aFPA.

🐶 Amari Cooper @ Texans

Cooper appears to be earning the trust of Joe Flacco, as he’s posted an 11-186-1 line in their last two contests. The Browns head to Houston this week to battle their 29th-ranked defense in WR aFPA.

Tight Ends

 🐆 Evan Engram @ Buccaneers

After two monster weeks, Engram came down to earth against a tough Ravens defense last week but should bounce back Sunday in Tampa Bay. The Bucs surrender the fourth-most aFPA to enemy TEs this season (12.2).

✈️ Tyler Conklin vs. Commanders

The TE scene is tough out there, but Conklin seems to boast a decent weekly floor. The Jets don’t have much cooking beyond Garrett Wilson so Conklin has averaged 6.8 targets in his last four contests. He’ll face a porous Washington unit in Week 16.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is aFPA rank

  • Joe Flacco @ Texans (25th)

  • James Cook @ Chargers (26th)

  • Bijan Robinson vs. Colts (30th)

  • Alexander Mattison @ Packers (28th)

  • D’Andre Swift vs. Giants (21st)

  • Stefon Diggs @ Chargers (27th)

  • Courtland Sutton vs. Patriots (22nd)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.