🍿 Are You Playoff Ready?

Some Stashes and Solid Matchups

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
November 29, 2023

Together with GameBlazers: The Next Generation of Fantasy Sports

In today’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I’ll give you some advice and adds to get ready for the playoffs, offer the best matchups of the week, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

With the fantasy postseason only a few games away, here’s some helpful info to get you ready to compete.

Look at Playoff Matchups

Glancing ahead to a player’s matchups during Weeks 15, 16, and 17 is another way to gain an edge over your potential opponents. 4for4’s Hot Spot tool lays it out in a color-coded, easy-to-read format, and you can filter it by specific players or the teams as a whole.

While someone like Trevor Lawrence has been a decent quarterback for fantasy purposes and he’s gotten you this far as the overall QB15, we see in Weeks 15, 16, and 17, that he faces the Ravens, Buccaneers, and Panthers, who rank fifth, 26th and third, respectively, in QB aFPA—schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position—in 2023.

In a single-elimination playoff format, playing the matchups can be a difference-maker in whether you move on, win it all, or go home empty-handed and are forced to stew for another offseason on how close you were to ultimate victory.

QBs With Favorable Matchups in Weeks 15-17

  • Derek Carr

  • Tommy DeVito

  • Will Levis

  • Kenny Pickett

TEs With Favorable Matchups in Weeks 15-17

  • Cade Otton

  • Pat Freiermuth

  • Chig Okonkwo

  • Hayden Hurst

Kickers With Favorable Matchups in Weeks 15-17

  • Matt Gay

  • Jake Moody

  • Anders Carlson

  • Chris Boswell

Defenses With Favorable Matchups in Weeks 15-17

  • Bears

  • Colts

  • Packers

  • Rams

  • Falcons

  • Texans

RB Stashes and Handcuffs

  • Royce Freeman (Rams)

  • Rico Dowdle (Cowboys)

  • D'Ernest Johnson (Jaguars)

  • Tyjae Spears (Titans)

  • Elijah Mitchell (49ers)

  • Roschon Johnson (Bears)

  • Jeff Wilson (Dolphins)

  • Kendre Miller (Saints)

  • Latavius Murray (Bills)

  • Samaje Perine (Broncos)

  • Craig Reynolds (Lions)

  • Zamir White (Raiders)

  • Salvon Ahmed (Dolphins)

  • Kenneth Gainwell (Eagles)

  • Jordan Mason (49ers)

  • Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Buccaneers)

  • Joshua Kelley (LAC)

Potential Shootouts Down the Stretch

Week 15

  • Chargers @ Raiders

  • Cowboys @ Bills

Week 16

  • Cowboys @ Dolphins

  • Raiders @ Chiefs

Week 17

  • Lions @ Cowboys

  • Cardinals @ Eagles

  • Bengals @ Chiefs

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

Quarterbacks

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa @ WAS

This is a beautiful spot for Tagovailoa as the Commanders sit dead last in QB aFPA. They just allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 331 yards and four touchdowns on Thanksgiving, so it looks like we could be in store for a bounceback from the Miami signal caller.

 ⛏️ Brock Purdy @ Eagles

This should be a fun contest with Purdy taking on Philly’s 30th ranked unit in QB aFPA. He’s the QB12 in fantasy points per game this season and is 4for4’s QB7 heading into this matchup.

Running Backs

🛡️ Derrick Henry vs. IND

After a few quiet weeks, Henry busted out in Week 12 against the Panthers and is set up for another big one. The Colts are yielding the third most aFPA per contest to opposing RBs (24.3).

🧲 Zack Moss @ TEN

With Jonathan Taylor on the shelf for several weeks due to a thumb injury, Moss will take over the backfield and gets a juicy matchup in Week 13. Tennessee sits 21st in RB aFPA as we head into Sunday.

Wide Receivers

🐬 Tyreek Hill @ Commanders

Hill is an every-week starter, but he does have a glorious matchup on tap in Washington. The Commanders surrender a league-worst 38.0 in half-PPR aFPA to enemy WRs each week in 2023.

🐈‍⬛ Adam Thielen @ Buccaneers

Coming off his worst output of the season (.7 half-PPR), Thielen is set up to return to fantasy WR2 territory on the road in Tampa. The Bucs are 29th in WR aFPA and Carolina could experience that bump in production we get when a coach is let go during the season.

Tight Ends

🐶 David Njoku @ Rams

The passing attack in Cleveland is limited but Njoku continues to be one of the top options. He’ll face a Rams defense that is dead last in TE aFPA this week which bodes well for production.

🦁 Sam LaPorta @ Saints 

Thanksgiving was ugly for the Lions but LaPorta came out with a 5-47-1 line plus a two-point conversion. He should find success again this week in New Orleans as the Saints are yielding 11.0 in half-PPR aFPA to TEs which ranks 26th in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions

*number in parenthesis is aFPA rank

  • Russell Wilson @ Texans (31st)

  • Kenny Pickett vs. Cardinals (23rd)

  • Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren vs. Cardinals (32nd)

  • Raheem Mostert @ Commanders (29th)

  • Rachaad White vs. Panthers (27th)

  • Brandon Aiyuk @ Eagles (31st)

  • Jaylen Waddle @ Commanders (32nd)

  • Evan Engram vs. Bengals (30th)

  • Dalton Schultz vs. Broncos (31st)

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.