I know it’s tough for some to already turn the page to 2025 with the 2024 NFL season still on the line, but I’m doing it. In today’s newsletter, I look ahead with a first-round mock draft, plus we’ll hear from Ryan McDowell from DLF on some pertinent dynasty info.

Sure, the Vince Lombardi Trophy hasn’t even been handed out yet for 2024 and we still have a few days until the Chiefs and Eagles battle to decide who gets it, but why not look to the 2025 fantasy season? Here’s my ridiculously early fantasy football mock draft for Round 1 only.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Settings

• League Size: 12 Teams

• Starting Roster: 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1 Flex (non-QB), 1 K, 1 DST

• Scoring: .5 PPR

Fantasy Football Mock: Round 1

1.01 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Bengals 🐯

Chase led the league in targets, receptions, yards, and receiving TDs last season and could be going into 2025 without Tee Higgins in the mix.

1.02 – Saquon Barkley, RB – Eagles 🦅

Coming off a 2,000-yard season, Barkley could easily repeat his incredible 2024 campaign thanks to insane talent and a very solid offensive line in Philly.

1.03 – Bijan Robinson, RB – Falcons 🪺

I think Barkley and Robinson are interchangeable as the second and third picks next season. Robinson is younger (23), and despite coming in as the RB4 in half-PPR scoring this year, it feels like there’s still more to come from the Falcon.

1.04 – Justin Jefferson, WR – Vikings 😈

There were concerns about Jefferson with Sam Darnold under center heading into this season, but he ended as the WR2 overall and WR3 in half-PPR points per contest. I assume that this debate will occur again with J.J. McCarthy at the helm, but Jefferson is a top 3 WR regardless of who’s tossing him the ball.

1.05 – Puka Nacua, WR – Rams 🐏

After returning from injury in Week 8, Nacua went on to average 16.1 per contest in half-PPR scoring as the WR4 and out-targeted Cooper Kupp 102-73 in that time frame. With Kupp likely gone, Nacua enters the top-5 conversation overall in 2025.

1.06 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB – Lions 🦁

It does not matter that Gibbs is technically in a timeshare since he can produce RB1 numbers even with a healthy David Montgomery, as she did from Weeks 1-10 in 2024 as the RB5.

1.07 – CeeDee Lamb, WR – Cowboys 🤠

Even with QB Dak Prescott sidelined for half of the season, Lamb still finished with 1,194 receiving yards as the WR8 in half-PPR scoring. He’s averaged a WR5 finish over the last three seasons and should keep it rolling in 2025.

1.08 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR – Lions 🦁

His targets and yardage were down this season, but he did have a career-high 12 touchdowns. St. Brown is part of a high-octane offense that’s not going to slow down anytime soon.

1.09 – Derrick Henry, RB – Ravens 🪺

Yes, he’ll be 31 next season but he just produced the near-best numbers of his career. Fade Henry at your own risk.

1.10 – Brock Bowers, TE – Raiders 🏴‍☠️

My love for Bowers was no secret heading into his rookie season, and he proved myself and all others correct with a record-breaking rookie campaign with a highly questionable QB situation in Vegas. He’s first-round material heading into 2025.

1.11 – Nico Collins, WR – Texans 🐂

He missed five games in 2024 but still managed to eclipse 1,000 yards. Stefon Diggs is a free agent, and Tank Dell will likely miss time due to a brutal knee injury, so Collins should be in for a massive output next season.

1.12 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR – Jaguars 🐆

This was a tough call between rookies Thomas and Malik Nabers. Both are worthy of the 1/2 turn after solid starts to their NFL careers with not-so-ideal QB situations. I went with the Jag due to his immense talent and a better overall team.

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Welcome to DLF Roundup. Each week, Ryan McDowell brings you a quick look at some of the dynasty happenings taking place over at Dynasty League Football.

One of my favorite ongoing series we offer at Dynasty League Football is The Mailbag. It’s a great spot to get your dynasty questions answered and there are always a variety of topics covered. In the latest version, Eric Hardter opens the mail and talks about, among other things, how to value Jaylen Waddle in dynasty leagues. Here’s a quick look at some of Eric’s thoughts…

In an eight-team, non-PPR superflex league I have Jaylen Waddle on a contending team – are you holding or selling? I also have pick 1.08 I could package with him – are there any particular players in this price range I should target? – Tom in Texas

To get something of a sense check, let’s see where the dynasty masses are landing on the talented Miami pass catcher.

As shown above, Waddle is going off the board as the 39th overall player and as a late fifth-round pick in eight-team league startup drafts. In your league setting, he’d be considered as a high-end WR4, though it should be acknowledged that DLF doesn’t perform non-PPR mock drafts in support of its ADP. While Waddle was picked as early as 26th overall in one mock draft, all others found him landing in the range of 35-44.

All told I’m fairly comfortable with him in this range. As shown above, he was previously regarded as a top-20 overall player as recently as September of last year, and peaked as a top-five overall asset in 2023. Interestingly though, he’s now slightly behind teammate Hill despite the latter’s soon-to-be 31 years of age.

His yearly finishes (again, PPR here) help explain his downward trend. Certainly, some context can be applied – the Dolphins were mid-tier in terms of both passing yards and touchdowns, but this didn’t stop Hill from finishing as a WR3 in your format, and tight end Jonnu Smith finishing as the TE3. The team’s running backs also managed to sequester away 876 total receiving yards and six aerial scores, good for 21.7% and 27.3% of the team’s totals, respectively.

Perhaps this is the new paradigm under head coach Mike McDaniel? Previously the team had featured Hill as a high-end WR1, with Waddle chipping in as the team’s second target in the passing game. It could also be due to starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa only managing 10 contests last season due to injury. For now, we may consider it a single data point, and if the Dolphins struggle to make the playoffs again in 2025 it’s entirely possible we’ll be looking at a new coaching staff, regardless.

So there’s the backdrop.

As to my thoughts on the matter, while I now view Waddle as appropriately valued, I still don’t view him as a game-changer. Even in his best year (2022), when he finished as the non-PPR WR7, he was 2.0 PPG off the pace of the WR5 (Stefon Diggs). As he’s only 26 years old I won’t assert this is his ceiling, but he’s also been going downhill since.

As to rookie pick 1.08, it seems likely you’ll have a crack at a solid ball carrier such as Omarion Hampton or Quinshon Judkins. Alternatively, you could break convention and go for the draft’s top tight end in Tyler Warren – with pick 1.08 my assumption is you won the league last year, which gives you the ability to make a “luxury” pick. Warren could marinate on your bench for a couple of years, or perhaps could even offer immediate viability similar to other recent, polished players at the position like Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers.

Still, if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times (or like, 38 times at least) – in smaller league settings studs win the day! Waddle seemed like he was going to be a stud at first, but the winds are now blowing in a different direction. And the pick could very well yield a stud, but draft picks represent roughly 50% likelihood, and the argument remains that it’s more valuable as an unmade pick than a selected player.

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