🥸 Ridiculously-Early 2024 Mock Draft (Round 1)

These two weeks until the Super Bowl are always a killer. I can only imagine how the actual players feel. In today’s newsletter, I look ahead to 2024 with a first-round mock draft, plus we’ll hear from Ryan McDowell from DLF on some pertinent dynasty info.

Sure, the Vince Lombardi Trophy hasn’t even been handed out yet for 2023 and we still have two weeks until the Chiefs and 49ers battle to decide who gets it, but why not look to the 2024 fantasy season? Here’s my ridiculously early fantasy football mock draft for Round 1 only.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Settings

• League Size: 12 Teams

• Starting Roster: 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1 Flex (non-QB), 1 K, 1 DST

• Scoring: .5 PPR

Fantasy Football Mock: Round 1

1.01 – Christian McCaffrey, RB – 49ers ⛏️

CMC had the second most fantasy points this season behind only Josh Allen and is again the clear 1.01 heading into the 2024 season. As the best fantasy and real-life RB from this season, McCaffrey is returning to the same team with the same offense and will look to do it all over again in 2024.

1.02 – Tyreek Hill, WR – Dolphins 🐬

One would think that leaving Patrick Mahomes in KC would cause some sort of downfall for a WR but it’s been quite the opposite ride for Hill. He’s had his best two statistical seasons of his career in Miami, averaging 1,755 receiving yards with 20 total touchdowns over the last two years. He was the WR1 in half-PPR points per game this season with 19.8 and finished as WR6 or better in nine of the 16 contests played during the fantasy season.

1.03 – Justin Jefferson, WR – Vikings 👿

This was a tough choice for me between Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb, and they will likely both be going at this spot all summer long. Some may argue that Lamb has the better QB and at this point of the year we’re not clear who will be under center for Minnesota, but Jefferson has proven to be QB-proof. Before he was injured in Week 5, the WR was in on 99% of routes and boasted a 34% target share, resulting in 21.7 half-PPR points per game (WR1). Even in Week 18 upon his return, Jefferson posted a 12-192-1 line with a mix of Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens at QB.

1.04 – CeeDee Lamb, WR – Cowboys 🤠

Despite the Cowboys’ inconsistencies this season, Lamb erupted for those who spent the 1.12 pick on the talented WR. His 19.2 half-PPR points per game sat second behind only Hill, and no player in the NFL scored more fantasy points than Lamb from Week 8 on both overall (234.1) or on a per-game basis (23.4). He’s locked in as the WR1 for Dallas and will keep giving us that juicy floor/ceiling combination.

1.05 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Bengals 🐯

This season was a rough one for Chase as he started out slow and lost Joe Burrow from Week 11 on, yet he still managed to finish as a fantasy WR1 in half-PPR points per game. The 23-year-old has averaged 1,239 yards and 9.7 touchdowns in his three years in the NFL and has ended every season as WR11 or better in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis. Joe Burrow is locked in as a Bengal and Chase will likely sign a massive deal of his own soon, making him a solid selection in 2024 and beyond.

1.06 – Breece Hall, RB – Jets ✈️

Hall’s situation in New York was less than ideal this season and he still showed us he’s a top-tier caliber tailback. Without Aaron Rodgers and a combination of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian under center, Hall put up RB10 numbers in half-PPR scoring, and this was in his first season back following an ACL repair. Next season he’ll be further removed and as the target leader among RBs in 2023, that pace should continue with better quality balls in 2024.

1.07 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR – Lions 🦁

The Sun God came on like the fire he’s named for at the end of his rookie season posting 20.7 half-PPR points per game in Weeks 13-17 as the WR3. St. Brown followed that up with back-to-back top-10 performances cementing his elite status as a fantasy WR. With OC Ben Johnson staying put, it should be all systems go for this offense again in 2024.

1.08 – A.J. Brown, WR – Eagles 🦅

It wasn’t the best end to the season for Brown or the Eagles but we can’t forget how powerful he was for three quarters of 2023. Despite a soft ending, Brown set career highs in targets and receptions and was just 40 yards shy of that feat in receiving yards. Coming off an output of WR8 in half-PPR points per tilt, Brown goes into next season with a solid floor and could even finish ahead of some of the WRs above him if Philly can get things right in 2024.

1.09 – Bijan Robinson, RB – Falcons 🪺

Free from Arthur Smith, the talented Robinson is given some new life in his second year in the NFL. It’s hard to imagine the dual-threat RB not thriving under a fresh coaching staff.

1.10 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB – Lions 🦁

It was a rough start for those who spent third-round draft capital on Gibbs this season but he showed us why the Lions invested so highly in him as the season moved along. The rookie ended his first year as a pro with 1,261 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 52 receptions on 71 targets. His speed and elusiveness can’t be denied and a sophomore surge is very possible with the same coaching staff and offense.

1.11 – Garrett Wilson, WR – Jets

Back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons with what Wilson has been dealt at QB is something special. Let’s just assume he gets a full season with Aaron Rodgers and the third-year WR will be well worth a late-first-round selection next season.

1.12 – Puka Nacua, WR – Rams 🐏

This rookie exploded into both fantasy and real-life football right from the start of this season by posting 25 catches for 266 yards on 35 targets in his first two NFL contests. Nacua finished as the WR9 in half-PPR points per contest and in a Sean McVay offense, the fantasy future is very bright for the 22-year-old. He may fall to the second round once ADP begins to form but I like the thought of him at the turn paired with Wilson in any form of Zero-RB drafts.

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Welcome to DLF Roundup. Each week, Ryan McDowell brings you a quick look at some of the dynasty happenings taking place over at Dynasty League Football.

One of my favorite weekly series at Dynasty League Football is our long-standing Dynasty Mailbag. Currently, Eric Hardter is answering your call each week, sharing his insights on players, strategy, value, and all things dynasty. Be sure to check this out each week.

Here’s an excerpt from the latest Mailbag…

Would you rather have Jonathan Taylor or pick 1.06 in a superflex draft?

The Colts runner had a mercurial season, starting with missing the first four games after being placed on the PUP list in what seemed more like a shot across the bow related to his contract status. To that point, Taylor was something of an off-season vocal leader for the argument that running backs, in fact, do matter. He publicly lobbied for a new contract, highlighting his robust early-career statistics and usage. Once he returned he ramped up his workload while getting to game speed, and started to resemble the former 2,000+ overall yard earner from 2021 before losing three more contests due to a thumb injury. Still, he capped his season with a 30-carry, 188-yard effort in a close loss to the Texans in week 18.

During this saga, Taylor got his bag and is now the third-highest salaried ball carrier in the league, and should be locked in with the Colts for the next three years. This will pair him with exciting but injury-riddled quarterback Anthony Richardson, who when healthy showed superstar traits both on the ground and through the air. With head coach Shane Steichen coaxing a top-15 offense with backup Gardner Minshew taking most the snaps at quarterback, it’s fair to reason there’s more meat on the bone here.

Continuing, Taylor’s weekly line when he played at least 50% of the stats stood at a solid 19.4-88-0.9, with another 13 receptions and a score. Though he’s not been the most prolific receiver during his time in the NFL, he secured 2.4 receptions per game prior to 2023 – coupled with a full off-season it’s fair to reason things should be even better in 2024.

On the other side of the ledger is pick 1.06 in a superflex format. It’s only January, so we know there’s plenty of time for things to change following the NFL Combine, but right now that seems likely to yield receiver Rome Odunze. Dispassionately, this is an important distinction to make, as this represents a tier break behind quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, and receivers Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers.

This is an important distinction to me, as I’m not willing to trade a player with Taylor’s proven upside for anything other than a tier-one prospect in return. DLF’s Trade Analyzer agrees with this assertion.

To be clear, it’s a reasonable trade offer given the supreme value of draft picks this time of year. And playing devil’s advocate, it’s not as if Taylor fully proved he was all the way back from a somewhat disappointing 2022 campaign that also ended in injury. But this is still a player who’s averaging 5.0 YPC for his career with 44 total scores across 53 contests – he’s a bell cow ball carrier who does just enough in the passing game to threaten for overall yearly PPR RB1 numbers, just as he accomplished in 2021. I’d need just a bit more to move on from that.

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

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