🍾 Rookie Class 10-Year Reunion

OTA Video and a Dynasty Segment, too

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This week I’m honoring the rookies of 2015 ahead of their 10th season, plus we get a dynasty nugget courtesy of our friends at Dynasty League Football.

🎉 10th-Year Rookie Reunion

This season marks the 10th year for many notable players and some not-so-notable-ones. The 2015 rookie class doesn’t feature a bulk of talent at one position a la QBs in 1983 or WRs in 2014, but many are still crushing it or are at least still getting NFL paychecks, while some high draft picks have retired or fallen off the map.

No. 1 Overall Pick -QB Jameis Winston 🏴‍☠️ > ⚜️ > 🐶

His rookie year resulted in 4,042 yards on 535 attempts with 15 interceptions, as the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Winston’s current total stands at 22,104 yards as he joins his third team as the backup to DeShaun Watson.

From 2015 to 2019 in Tampa Bay, Winston averaged 16.94 fantasy points per game and was a fantasy QB2 for each season aside from 2019 where he was the QB8 in that category.

No. 2 Overall Pick- QB Marcus Mariota 🛡️> 🏴‍☠️ > 🪺 > 🦅 > 🪖

Mariota has over 6,000 fewer yards than Winston and has carried a clipboard for two more teams (including his new stint in Washington). His rookie year resulted in the QB18 in fantasy points per game for the 12 contests played for the Titans. His best output was in 2016 as the QB11, but Mariota’s best one-off came in 2020 where he played just one game, and posted 25.8 fantasy points.

Knock him all you want, but he’s still around after a decade and may start some games for Washington if rookie Jayden Daniels doesn’t take quickly to NFL life.

No. 4 Overall Pick - WR Amari Cooper 🏴‍☠️ > 🤠 > 🐶

It’s been an interesting yet mostly fruitful ride for Cooper since leaving the 2015 NFL Draft board at spot four to the then-Oakland Raiders. He’s averaged 11.7 half-PPR points per contest in his nine seasons in the league and ended six of those years as a fantasy WR2 and three as a WR3 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis. Cooper is currently 4for4’s WR20 heading into the 2024 season with an Underdog ADP of WR29 at spot 48.3.

No. 10 Overall Pick - RB Todd Gurley 🐏 > 🪺

Gurley certainly made an impact in both real and fantasy football in just six seasons in the NFL. He was the RB1 in both 2017 and 2018 with 23.4 and 24.0 half-PPR points per game respectively, and had another fantasy RB1 season his rookie year as the RB6 in that category. Sadly, knee issues caused the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2015, three-time Pro Bowler, and two-time All-Pro to retire in October of 2022.

No. 14 Overall Pick - WR DeVante Parker 🐬 > 🎖️

Parker only broke 1,000 receiving yards once in nine seasons, back in 2019 with Miami where he was the WR11 in half-PPR points per tilt. He didn’t live up to first-round draft capital on either team he played for and just announced his retirement from the league on 5/20/2024.

No. 15 Overall Pick - RB Melvin Gordon ⚡️ > 🐴 > 🪺

After being drafted by the Chargers, Gordon’s rookie campaign resulted in an RB65 output, but he came on hot over the next three seasons with three straight finishes of RB7 or better in half-PPR points per contest. In 2019 we saw him slide to a fantasy RB2 which continued in his next two seasons as a Bronco, and his last year in Denver, Gordon only put up 7.6 half-PPR points per game as the RB53.

After one year in Baltimore where he carried the ball just 26 times for 81 yards and one score, MG3 is now a free agent looking for a home in 2024.

No. 86 Overall Pick - RB David Johnson 🪺 > 🐂 > ⚜️

Johnson rocketed to RB1 overall and RB2 in per-game scoring in 2016 with a 293-1239-16 line. Injuries piled up and he never reached that pinnacle again, playing for the Cardinals through 2019, the Texans in 2020-2021 and the Saints in 2022. Johnson just announced his retirement on Tuesday.

No 69 Overall Pick - WR Tyler Lockett 🌊

Perennially undervalued, Lockett has four 1,000+ yards seasons with two more over 850 receiving yards. He’s been a fantasy WR2 in five of his nine years in the NFL and is once again being slept on as he’s the WR54 right now in Underdog drafts, yet he’s ranked as the WR39 in 4for4’s initial half-PPR ranks.

No. 146 Overall Pick - WR Stefon Diggs 😈 > 🦬 > 🐂

Drafted in the fifth round by the Minnesota Vikings, Diggs has had quite the career redemption. His rookie season was his worst in terms of production, ending as the WR43 with just 9.5 half-PPR points per game. In the next eight seasons, we got three fantasy WR1 performances and five campaigns as a fantasy WR2 with both the Vikings and Bills. Diggs begins a new chapter this year at age 30 with the high-octane Texans.

No. 204 Overall Pick - WR/TE Darren Waller 🪺 > 🏴‍☠️ > 🧢

Selected as a WR by Baltimore, Waller transformed his life and career in 2019 as a TE for the Raiders. He was the TE2 both overall and in fantasy points per contest that year, and followed that up with a TE5 season. Injuries derailed the next three seasons and for now, he’s a New York Giant, but retirement rumors have been swirling all offseason.

Other Notable Picks Still Collecting NFL Paychecks at the 10-Year Reunion

🪺 Nelson Agholor WR - He signed a one-year deal with the Ravens in February.

🐴 Phillip Dorsett WR - Re-signed with Denver on May 13th, 2024

🏴‍☠️ Ameer Abdullah RB - Re-signed with the Raiders on March 8th, 2024.

⛏️ Chris Conley WR - On a one-year deal with the 49ers for 2024.

High Draft Picks With Shorter NFL Shelf Lives

  • Kevin White WR (Pick #7) - 2016-2022 🐻 > ⚜️

  • TJ Yeldon RB (Pick #36)- 2015-2020 🐆 > 🦬

  • Devin Smith WR (Pick #37)- 2015-2021 ✈️ > 🤠 > 🐆

  • Dorial Green-Beckham (Pick #40)- WR 2015-2016 🛡️> 🦅

  • Devin Funchess WR (Pick #41)-2015-2019 🐈‍⬛ > 🧲

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Fantasy Sports EVO Play of the Day

Today is a great day to play the MLB Strikeouts contest. Tyler Glasnow is on the mound for LA and leads all pitchers in strikeouts with 81 total, averaging 8.10 per game this season. Throw the Dodgers in your 2.5 multiplier spot, and while you’re at it, the Detroit Tigers make for a solid choice for the 1.5 multiplier as Tarik Skubal sits seventh in total strikeouts with 66 (7.33 per contest).

It’s that time of year when a camp or workout photo gets the fantasy community lathered up to overdraft a player. This week’s photo is actually a video of the once-dubbed generational TE Kyle Pitts.

Since entering the NFL in 2021 Pitts has been drafted as the TE4, TE3, and TE5 respectively, with finishes well below those ADPs, as the TE12, TE20, and TE17 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis. He’s now free from Arthur Smith’s shackles and apparently, this catch has drafters back in on the TE for 2024 (unless of course, you never left him).

It’s rookie fever season! Falling into this annual trap is inevitable for nearly all dynasty managers. During this time each offseason, dynasty players only see the best-case scenario for members of the incoming rookie class.

Of course, the reality is that a large percentage of these players, probably even the majority of them, will fail. DLF’s Ken Kelly has been hosting and dissecting a unique mock draft, focused on identifying Rookie Busts, factoring in the draft capital necessary to acquire the players.

Ken and his fellow DLFers are most worried about new Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey. Here’s what they had to say…

1.01 = Ladd McConkey, WR LAC

Comments from inside the War Room: “Dude had 30 catches and is being touted as the big thing. No thanks.”

My thoughts: I’m not really stunned to see McConkey taken at the top of this exercise. It’s going to take a late first-round draft pick to acquire him and that’s a lot of draft capital to use on a player who is really unproven. The Chargers are going to give Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer a real opportunity to succeed and they won’t give up easily on Johnston, specifically. Throw a veteran like DJ Chark into the mix and this thing gets a little muddy, especially when you consider this looks like a team that wants to run the ball and play defense.

New Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is another highly-debated player in this rookie class. He “fell” to the 1.09, with this commentary…

1.09 – Jayden Daniels, QB WAS

Comments from inside the War Room: “Reliance on scrambling under pressure was a statistical outlier among historical draft prospects. That and his propensity for taking awe-inspiring hits will not translate well to the league. If he can’t hold down a long-term starting job in the NFL, it’ll be pretty hard for him to rack up rushing yards on the bench. Additional hurdle is a massive talent advantage at WR being taken away.”

My thoughts: To me, Daniels seems like a huge boom or bust prospect. If we were to have a “boom” mock draft where we drafted the players we thought would be the biggest bargains, he could be the 1.01. It’s an extreme and wide range of possibilities with Daniels and this is going to be fun to watch. Feel lucky?

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