✌🏼 Sophomore Surge?

A flashback, plus a little dynasty

We made it, folks. There’s actually an NFL football game this week! In this edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I focus on some second-year RBs and we have the last dynasty segment of the summer courtesy of Ryan McDowell from Dynasty League Football.

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It’s looking like there’s no second-year slump on tap for these four RBs. Here are the sophomore backs I’m targeting in 2024.

🛡️ Tyjae Spears, Titans

While it may not be the breakout we were anticipating before Tennessee signed Tony Pollard, Spears is still a solid choice at current ADP. With Derrick Henry in the mix last season, Spears ranked fifth in rushing yards over expected (3.66) and 14th in yards before contact per carry among RBs with at least 50 rushing attempts. He proved his third-down prowess as well, ranking 11th in both target share and yards after the catch in his rookie campaign.

King Henry is now in Baltimore, and the Titans are projecting to use a committee approach at RB with Spears and Pollard. If Will Levis and Tennessee take a step forward and can maintain an above-average neutral run rate, and Spears remains efficient, the second-year RB can outproduce his current RB32, ninth-round pricetag.

🐯 Chase Brown, Bengals

His rookie year started out rough, as Brown missed some time with a hamstring injury and didn't see much action when dressed. Things turned around from Week 13 on, as he averaged 8.8 touches and 53.7 combined yards per game. Joe Mixon has been replaced by Zack Moss, who was an admirable fill-in for Jonathan Taylor last season in Indy, but has never handled more than 210 touches in a season, and hasn’t been much of a receiving threat in the past.

It is still early, but Brown has been taking the majority of the first-team reps at camp, so that is something to monitor. The sophomore’s ADP is currently in fantasy RB4 territory—RB38 as a 10th-rounder—and if he gets more groundwork in this efficient offense, there’s a path to an RB3 or even RB2 finish.

 🪹 Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

It’s a new era in Seattle, one with no allegiances to previous players. Charbonnet was limited in usage in 2023 but showed he can get it done, ranking 10th in rushing yards over expected per carry among RBs with at least 75 attempts (2.58), while Kenneth Walker was 42nd in that same category (.60). Charbonnet could have some stand-alone value this season if he outplays Walker and forces more touches.

Right now, he’s leaving boards as the RB42 in the 11th round, according to 4for4’s aggregate ADP tool, which is a nice spot for his potential.

🐴 Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos

Denver’s RB depth chart is like one of those Infinity Puzzles as we enter August. Coach and beat writer speak is all over the place, and according to the internet, all of the RBs could be cut, or the starters come Week 1. McLaughlin was explosive when he had the ball as a rookie, ranking 12th in yards after contact per carry among RBs with at least 75 attempts, and first in rushing yards over expected per carry within that same group (5.38).

Sean Payton’s RBs are perenially a big part of his offenses and last season he made it a point to involve McLaughlin in the passing game, as the rookie led the RB room in targets per route run at 37%. This situation is still unfolding but after a disappointing 2023 from Javonte Williams, we could see more work for McLaughlin, making him a value right now at RB49 in ADP, particularly in any PPR scoring format.

In this week’s flashback, we have QB JP Losman signing autographs after Bills training camp at St. John Fisher College in 2005. He played in Buffalo for five underwhelming years before hanging out in Oakland and Miami for a few cups of coffee. If you’re interested in some of this action, a Losman autographed card is currently $14 on Amazon.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

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  • DJ Moore inked the largest deal in Bears history on Tuesday. Drinks are on him! 🍻 

  • Is it Rico Dowdle season in Dallas? Sure, it’s only Day 1 but considering his competition, it may not be a bad idea to sprinkle in some shares right now, as Dowdle’s ADP is in the 13th round as RB48.

We are now mere hours from the kickoff of pre-season NFL football! Once we actually get to see players on the field, dynasty values begin to change, sometimes very quickly. 

This week, I highlighted my four favorite dynasty trade targets before the season begins. I expect these players to perform well this season, and therefore gain value. That means buying at their somewhat depressed costs now could pay off big time. 

Here are two of those four players I am focused on acquiring for my dynasty teams, before their prices spike.

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has had a rough few years on and off the field, though it can be argued he brought much of that upon himself. Ignoring the off-field situation for a moment, Watson has failed to live up to his pre-suspension level of play since returning to an NFL field late in the 2022 season. He’s played just 12 total games over the past two seasons, missing much of last year with an injury.

While it can’t be argued that he has been disappointing, I think the value drop Watson has endured has been too exaggerated. His current ADP of 158 matches his low point during 2021 when his career was up in the air.

While Watson did finish as just the QB37 last year, he was able to produce three QB1 games in five full contests, which followed a pair of QB1 games to end the 2022 season. The Browns have added some weapons that should help Watson continue to bounce back, including Jerry Jeudy and improvements to an already solid offensive line. Cleveland also gave themselves Watson insurance with the additions of veteran backups Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley. Watson’s controversial fully-guaranteed contract all but ensures he’ll be on the field for the next two seasons, at least.

You’ll find some dynasty managers, and you might even be one, who are completely unwilling to roster Watson. While I fully understand that, it does create an even more robust buying opportunity. Watson is currently sporting a QB20 ADP and is QB18 according to DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer. That puts him in the same value range as a future second-round rookie pick, which aligns well with actual trades that have recently been completed. Using the DLF Trade Finder, here is a trio of dynasty trades involving Watson.

  • Watson for 2.08 rookie pick (superflex)

  • Watson for 2025 3rd round rookie pick (1QB)

  • Watson/1.11 rookie pick for James Cook (1QB)

At the cost of a second or third-round rookie pick, Watson will be a trade target of mine, especially on those teams lacking quarterback depth.

Longtime fantasy favorite Alvin Kamara saw his dynasty value plummet last off-season as he was dealing with off-field allegations and dynasty managers began to realize the class of 2017 product is on the backend of his productive career. After another strong season in 2023, in which he finished as the RB11 and was a top-24 fantasy back in 84% of his games, Kamara’s value has improved but he is still the RB21 and 82 overall in our July dynasty ADP.

The Saints have tried to replace, or at least find some help for their superstar back, but veteran Jamaal Williams and young back Kendre Miller have been disappointments in their year with the team. Factor in a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak and 2024 looks like another big season for Kamara.

Like his ADP, Kamara’s trade value has bounced back as well. A visit back to the Trade Finder shows Kamara could be acquired at late-first-round rookie pick prices. Here are a few recent trades…

While I would not be willing to pay a late first-rounder for Kamara at this stage of his career, I have been reaching out to the managers currently rostering the Saints back to determine how they currently view their team. If those managers have low expectations for their 2024 playoff outlook, it’s time to pounce.

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