šŸ„„ Still Alive in Survivor Pools?

Mailbag and a Best Bet

Itā€™s finally Friday, and Iā€™m diving into the mailbag, getting Connor Allenā€™s bet of the week, giving out some survivor pool picks, and of course giving you the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: Wondering if Will Levis is a good option for my Superflex spot this week. I have Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy normally, but with KC on a bye, I am looking at Levis or Jordan Addison. - Joe N.

A: I almost always prefer QBs in the Superflex spot because they can score in multiple ways. Exceptions to that are when bad signal callers are facing extremely tough defenses and youā€™re starting a superstar in their place. In your case, Levis is facing a TB defense that ranks 24th in WR aFPA which bodes well, considering he posted over 25 fantasy points against Atlantaā€™s similarly ranked unit. Addison should have a decent outing this week, but the Saintsā€™ secondary can be menacing. Itā€™s Levis for me.

Q: How worried are we about Kenneth Walker ROS? Is rostering Charbonnet a priority? -SGF

A: Iā€™d put the panic in the mild-to-mid category at this point. After six consecutive weeks with double-digit fantasy points, the Seattle RB posted two duds but they were agaisnt Cleveland and Baltimore, two of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. Yes, Charbonnetā€™s volume has increased over the last two weeks, but Walker was recovering from a chest injury and was likely limited to keep him healthy. Charbonnet is a nice stash as we enter the latter part of the season as rookie RBs tend to be, but Walker could still bounce back, particularly this week at home against Washington.

Q: Give it to me straight, is the release of the new Call of Duty going to affect how Kyler plays this weekend for his first game back from injury? -Zac

A: Let me refer you to this highly informative article on the subject that I found from last October which chronicles Murrayā€™s successes and failures on the field as it relates to Call of Duty events. Since I am no expert on the video game effects of NFL QBs, I will say that Murray is a wait-and-see for me in general as we havenā€™t seen him play since 12/12/2022. The Arizona QB does get a soft matchup to get back in the groove though, as the Falcons have allowed an average of 21.5 fantasy points to their last four opposing QBs comprised of Sam Howell, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, and Joshua Dobbs.

Every Friday 4for4ā€™s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekendā€™s games.

Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DK, MGM, CZRS, -118 Builder)

I not only like the over but ladders as well. Breece has seen 20 touches per game since Robert Saleh said they are letting Breece loose and now he draws one of the best matchups imaginable. The Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been truly pathetic no matter how you slice it. They are 30th in rushing success rate allowed, 4.65 yards per carry to opposing RBs, and are top-7 in % of runs to gain 1,3,5, and 10 yards. They have allowed 8 running backs to clear 65 rushing yards already, four to clear 90, and two to clear 100. This includes absolute dustballs like Craig Reynolds (74), AJ Dillon (76), Joshua Kelley (65), and Najee Harris (65).

Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the ā€œholy trinityā€ of analysis to make educated selections each week. Hopefully, some of you are still alive and fighting in Week 10.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

  • Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

  • Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

  • Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Letā€™s get to this weekā€™s picks:

šŸ¤  Dallas Cowboys vs. Giants - (Most Popular)

  • Point Spread: -17

  • Win Odds: 92% (1st)

  • Pick Popularity: 44% (1st)

  • Future Value: 2nd

šŸ¦¬ Buffalo Bills vs. Broncos - (Second-Highest Spread)

  • Point Spread: -7.5

  • Win Odds: 75% (2nd)

  • Popularity: 5% (3rd)

  • Future Value: 7th

šŸ¦ Detroit Lions @ Chargers - (Large Future Value)

  • Point Spread: -3.0

  • Win Odds:60% (9th)

  • Popularity: 0% (12th)

  • Future Value: 3rd

 šŸŒŠ Seahawks vs. Commanders - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

  • Point Spread: -6.5

  • Win Odds: 73% (3rd)

  • Popularity: 2% (6th)

  • Future Value: 15th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. Thereā€™s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.