🏝️ Still Alive in Survivor Pools?

Pool Picks and a Prop

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Somehow last night’s contest was both boring and surprising at the same time. To the weekend we go and today, I’ll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: Most of the season I have been holding RBs that are other teams handcuffs is this a time to stop doing that and handcuff my own players in the playoffs? Or should I keep cuffing the way I have been. - TCSPartan02

A: I think it depends on who the RBs on your roster are. You still want players with as much stand-alone value as possible, so if we’re talking Josh Jacobs, his backup Zamir White doesn’t have as much value even with an injury as someone like Tyjae Spears or Latavius Murray. If your current backup RBs can be inserted into your lineup in a pinch without a major injury then hang on.

Q: What should we be doing with Atlanta players from here on out? - Stevie56

A: At this point I feel like Bijan Robinson is the only startable player in the Falcons’ offense. While Drake London is a great talent, the team is so run-heavy (26th in the NFL in pass attempts) that it’s tough to count on a guy who’s averaging 8.5 half-PPR points to win you a championship. Keeping Tyler Allgeier as insurance is fine but even his role has diminished to a split with Cordarrelle Patterson to spell Robinson.

Q; Favorite NFL Playoff memory? -Bill W.

The first one that came to my mind was a game that I thought was the playoffs, but when looking it up I discovered it was actually in Week 14 which is apropos. Way back in 1982 for you youngins, the Dolphins and Patriots met at Schaefer Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts for a contest that will forever be known as The Snowplow Game.

It was bitterly cold and snowy, and neither team could get anything going offensively. The score was 0-0 through three quarters and in the fourth, the Pats were about to make a 33-yard attempt at a field goal. Right before the kick, NE HC Ron Meyer had a guy on furlough from prison come out and clear a nice little kicking spot with a snow plow. The field goal was good and the Patriots won the game 3-0. Needless to say, removing snowy spots on the football field for your own benefit isn’t allowed anymore and shouldn't have been then.

Growing up a Dolphin fan, this wasn’t exactly a favorite moment from a game-winning perspective, but I was pretty young, and the memory of my dad and his friends screaming at the television and going on and on about it for weeks is something I still treasure. Imagine anything like that going down today? Incredible.

Here’s a clip of Chris Berman re-telling the tale.

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Zay Flowers under 45.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, CZRS, Builder)

Conditions for this game are expected to be outrageously bad with rain throughout and 20+ MPH winds with even higher gusts. This will impact both sides passing games and both teams path to least resistance is running the ball anyways. On top of this, Flowers is only drawing a target on 17% of his routes against zone and 33% against man coverage. The Rams run zone over 80% of the time. Between the game state and matchup, I like this one a good bit.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Still alive in Week 14? Nice. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

  • Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

  • Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

  • Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

 đŸŹ Miami Dolphins vs. Titans - (Highest Spread)

  • Point Spread: -13.0

  • Win Odds: 87% (1st)

  • Pick Popularity: 4% (7th)

  • Future Value: 4th

🧀 Green Bay Packers @ Giants - (Most Popular)

  • Point Spread: -6.5

  • Win Odds: 74% (4th)

  • Popularity: 26% (1st)

  • Future Value: 15th

🪺 Baltimore Ravens vs. Rams - (High Future Value)

  • Point Spread: -7.5

  • Win Odds: 76% (3rd)

  • Popularity: 10% (5th)

  • Future Value: 5th

⚜️ New Orleans Saints vs. Panthers - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

  • Point Spread: -5.5

  • Win Odds: 68% (6th)

  • Popularity: 14% (4th)

  • Future Value: 16th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.