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A Fun Prop & Picks

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
December 22, 2023

Together with GameBlazers: The Next Generation of Fantasy Sports

TGIF folks! Hopefully. you had Puka Nacua on your fantasy teams and were not up against them like me. (sigh)

With the fantasy season coming to a close, I’m bringing back the news segment from this summer. Today’s topic is NFL coaches on the hot seat. Three teams have already cut their HC loose, here are six more in danger of getting the axe.

1. Ron Rivera, Commanders

Riverboat Ron has been with the Commanders since he was let go from the Panthers after nine years in 2019. Rivera hasn’t posted a winning season in his tenure in Washington and his team is on pace to finish at the bottom of the NFC East (with plenty of talent). ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler lays out the Commanders’ situation in great detail in an article entitled “How the Commanders Reached the Crossroads and What Comes Next”.

2. Bill Belichick, Patriots

Things haven’t been so great for Belichick this season. The Pats are 3-11 with his offense averaging 13.3 points per contest. Rumors have been flying around all season about Robert Kraft’s potential to let Belichick go. Tom E. Curran told WEEI that they are moving on from the longtime New England head coach and explained the potential process in this clip. At this point in his career, it will be interesting to see if he even wants to be a part of a rebuild or just walks off into the sunset after a storied tenure with the Patriots.

3. Arthur Smith, Falcons

As the offensive playcaller, it seems that Smith is going out of his way to not feature his three best assets. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson were all drafted in the Top 10 in each of their last three drafts and aren’t getting the usage expected based on their draft capital and talent. Smith’s HC record in 20-27 with zero playoff appearances in arguably one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. The final straw may be their embarrassing 9-7 loss last week to Carolina’s bottom-10 defense.

Also on Very Thin Ice:

Matt Eberflus, Bears
Robert Saleh, Jets
Mike Tomlin, Steelers

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Jaylen Warren over 68.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114 at FD, -115 DK, CZRS)

Warren is set up for success this week. He had a season-high 55% of the backfield touches last week and now draws the Bengals who are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry, are 27th in explosive run rate allowed, and 28th in rushing success rate allowed. They were bad on a play-to-play basis BEFORE losing run-stuffing DT DJ Reader. This is a massive deal as they have allowed over 5.5 yards per carry on the 109 snaps without Reader so far this season (H/T Rich Hribar/TruMedia there). With Mason Rudolph at QB, I expect them to lean on the run in neutral or positive game scripts. The issue is, Rudolph presents a level of variance that makes me more interested in the combined yardage. If they fall behind and are forced to throw it more, a rushing and receiving ticket is much, much stronger. Warren is coming off a season-high in route participation (83%) and on the year has a 28% target per route run rate. If they fall behind, Warren will get all of the work as the pass-catcher. I would also expect multiple designed receptions for Warren as a solid base. He has 3 designed targets each of the last three weeks. This sets a solid pass-catching floor even in positive game scripts.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit