Still-Too-Early Fantasy Mock Draft (Round 1)

NFL News & Dynasty, too

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Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
March 27, 2024

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Happy Wednesday folks and welcome to this week’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter. I’m back at the mock draft table, taking another crack after a few months to see if anything changed. Plus, we have some dynasty tea from our friends at Dynasty League Football.

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I did a ridiculously early mock draft back on January 31st and figured it was time for a still-really-early-but-not-so-ridiculously-early version of the first round. Here’s what I had back in January, let’s see if much has changed in two NFL months.

January’s Ridiculously Early Mock Draft

  • 1.01 – Christian McCaffrey, RB – 49ers ⛏️

  • 1.02 – Tyreek Hill, WR – Dolphins 🐬

  • 1.03 – Justin Jefferson, WR – Vikings 👿

  • 1.04 – CeeDee Lamb, WR – Cowboys 🤠

  • 1.05 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Bengals 🐯

  • 1.06 – Breece Hall, RB – Jets ✈️

  • 1.07 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR – Lions 🦁

  • 1.08 – A.J. Brown, WR – Eagles 🦅

  • 1.09 – Bijan Robinson, RB – Falcons 🪺

  • 1.10 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB – Lions 🦁

  • 1.11 – Garrett Wilson, WR – Jets ✈️

  • 1.12 – Puka Nacua, WR – Rams 🐏

March Still-Really-Early Mock Draft

1.01 - Christian McCaffrey, RB (SF) - CMC led the NFL in rushing, scrimmage yards, and TDs last year as the fantasy RB1. There’s no reason to pick anyone else here.

1.02 - Tyreek Hill, WR (MIA) - Four WRs are viable here but Hill remains my choice. He was the WR1 in half-PPR points per game last season (19.8) and has been averaging an incredible 106.3 yards per game over the past two seasons while catching 70% of his targets.

1.03 CeeDee Lamb, WR (DAL)- This is my first change from the prior mock and these few picks may flip-flop all offseason. Despite the Cowboys’ inconsistencies in 2023, Lamb erupted for those who spent the 1.12 pick on him. His 19.2 half-PPR points per game sat second behind Hill, and no player in the NFL scored more fantasy points from Week 8 on both overall (234.1) or on a per-game basis (23.4). Lamb is locked in as the WR1 for Dallas and will keep giving us that juicy floor/ceiling combination.

1.04 - Ja’Marr Chase, WR (CIN) - 2023 was rough for Chase as he started out slow then lost Joe Burrow from Week 11 on, yet he still managed to finish as a fantasy WR1 in half-PPR points per game. He’s averaged 1,239 yards and 9.7 touchdowns in his three years in the NFL and has ended every season as WR11 or better in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis.

1.05 - Breece Hall, RB (NYJ) - Hall’s situation was less than ideal last year and he still showed us he’s a top-tier caliber tailback. Without Aaron Rodgers and a combination of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian under center, Hall put up RB10 numbers in half-PPR scoring, and this was in his first season back following an ACL repair. In 2024 he’ll be further removed and as the target leader among RBs last season, that pace should continue with better quality balls.

1.06 Bijan Robinson, RB (ATL) - Free from Arthur Smith, the talented Robinson is given some new life in his second year in the NFL. It’s hard to imagine the dual-threat RB not thriving under a fresh coaching staff.

1.07 - Justin Jefferson, WR (MIN) - It feels kind of gross to downgrade Jefferson to spot seven but until we know his QB situation this is where he belongs. Jefferson averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game with Cousins under center compared to 18.8 without him. Whether a rookie or Sam Darnold is tossing him the ball, he’ll be a WR1, but just doesn’t have the bigger upside he would’ve had with Cousins.

1.08 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (DET) - The Sun God came on like the fire he’s named for at the end of his rookie season posting 20.7 half-PPR points per game in Weeks 13-17 as the WR3. St. Brown followed that up with back-to-back top-10 performances cementing his elite status as a fantasy WR1.

1.09 - A.J. Brown, WR (PHI) - Brown and the Eagles didn’t have the best finish to 2023, but we can’t forget how powerful he was for three-quarters of the season. Despite a soft end, AJB set career highs in targets and receptions and was just 40 yards shy of that feat in receiving yards. He boasts a solid floor and could even finish ahead of some of the WRs above him if Philly can get things right in 2024.

1.10 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (DET) - It was a rough start for those who spent third-round draft capital on Gibbs in 2023 but he showed us why the Lions invested so highly in him as the season progressed. The rookie ended his first season with 1,261 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 52 receptions on 71 targets. His speed and elusiveness can’t be denied and a sophomore surge is very possible with the same coaching staff and offense.

1.11 - Puka Nacua, WR (LAR) - Nacua exploded into both fantasy and real-life football right from the start by posting 25 catches for 266 yards on 35 targets in his first two NFL contests. He finished as the WR9 in half-PPR points per contest and in a Sean McVay offense, the fantasy future is very bright for the 22-year-old. He and Wilson below are pretty close and likely interchangeable on the turn.

1.12 - Garrett Wilson, WR (NYJ) - Back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons with the hand Wilson has been dealt at QB is something special. Let’s just assume he gets a full season with Aaron Rodgers and the third-year WR will be well worth a late-first-round selection next season.

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🎄🏈A Christmas Day NFL Miracle x 2! 

Stealing kickoffs from the XFL:

Hard Knocks Gets a Makeover for next season. Any guesses which division it will be?

The dust is settling on this year’s free agency period, with only a few relevant players left on the open market. The dynasty community has really focused on players who gained value as a result of a new landing spot, but it hasn’t been good news for all players. 

Several players have lost dynasty value as a result of free agency, along with a handful of trades around the league. DLF’s John DiBari recently discussed some of these players in his Losers From NFL Free Agency.

While he was not a free agent, we all knew embattled quarterback Justin Fields would be on the move this offseason. I don’t think any dynasty players realized how much value Fields would lose as a result of his trade and overall trade market.

Here’s what John had to say about the new Steelers backup quarterback…

“The Bears held onto Fields just a little too long, resulting in him being traded to Pittsburgh for only a conditional sixth-round pick. The Steelers' job might not be awful long-term, as they've got next-to-nothing invested in Russell Wilson, and if Wilson looks like the Denver-version of Wilson we've seen over the last two seasons, Fields will probably get a shot this year. However, he is a massive faller in the eyes of many because most thought he was locked in to get a starting job somewhere. Now he's just another backup, while guys like Jarrett Stidham, Sam Darnold, and Garner Minshew are currently penciled in as week one starters.”

Another (former) Steelers quarterback came in as a dynasty loser as well. After making moves for Russell Wilson and Fields, Pittsburgh dumped former first-round pick Kenny Pickett to the cross-state foe Philadelphia.

If Pickett could have gotten out of his own way, he could have stayed in Pittsburgh for another season, learned what he could from Wilson, and tried to regain the starting job in the steel city in 2025. Instead, he wore out his welcome and got moved to Philly, where he is buried beyond Jalen Hurts for at least another two seasons. A year ago, if you had a superflex team built around Fields and Pickett, you would’ve probably felt pretty good about your future, and now, you’re hoping to grab Jacoby Brissett in your first waiver run of the season.

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