🏋️‍♀️ Your Sunday Morning Cheat Sheet

After Week 1, we have a singular data point. After Week 2, we open up the possibility of trends. The goal here is to get ahead of trends as quickly as possible.

It's difficult with such a small sample of data, but we should be drawing on a combination of the first two weeks and what we've seen and heard coming into the season about each of these teams. Bookmakers are just as likely to hold on to their priors as we are, so I'll continue to look for ways to leverage that fact as the season progresses.

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

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I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. Since the NFL still can’t figure out how this schedule, we need to know which of the 9 early games get cut from the TV. Why they continue to do 9 early and 3 late is beyond me, but here we are.

You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.

I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Top Quarterback Streaming Picks

Top Tight End Streaming Picks

Top Team Defense Streaming Picks

Top Kicker Streaming Picks

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. Don’t tell him I said this, but he’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day. Remember, we can’t win ‘em all if we don’t win the first one.

I’m pretty good at this, too.

Am I better than Paulsen? It’s a good question. A lot of people are saying yes, and I’m a people-pleaser, so I hate arguing.

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:

Jared Goff (QB, Lions) - Goff has been excellent this season, and his home/road splits, something that I think is mostly nonsense, are too extreme to ignore. Fire him up at home against the Falcons.

Kyren Williams (RB, Rams) - Williams made the most of his full-time role last week against a tough 49ers club. His workload is that of a true alpha RB right now, and he’s a solid RB2 this week on touch volume alone.

Joshuah Kelly (RB, Chargers) - We knew last week’s matchup was tough, and Kelly stubbed his toe, but touches are king at the running back position, and we have Kelly projected for 17 of them this week in the game, which features the highest projected point total of the week.

Jordan Addison (WR, Vikings) - The rookie has flashed big-time upside through two weeks, and with the Vikings throwing at an insane rate to start the season, Addison should only continue his rise as his pro reps grow. Like Kelly, this is the premier scoring environment of the weekend.

Elijah Moore (WR, Browns) - Teams throw at the league’s highest rate against the Titans, and without Nick Chubb in the lineup, I don’t expect the Browns are going to let Jerome Ford pound it 20+ times here. Moore is in a great spot to post his first big week of the season.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, Steelers) - If you drafted Freiermuth, you’ve likely been sifting through the waiver wire for a replacement because it’s been a tough start. Games against the 49ers and Browns will do that to you. His route participation is still elite, and the Raiders have given up 8 catches and 56 yards per game to the tight end position this season. ‘Muth gets right on Sunday night. (More on that below.)

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) - A “we’ll see” from the head coach isn’t enough for me here. You can’t go into Monday night hoping Burrow is active. Address the position this morning.

Dameon Pierce (RB, Texans) - I love the player, but I hate the setup. The Texans are dealing with cluster injuries on both sides of the ball, and Pierce is not getting the volume to overcome a bad situation. It should get better, but this isn’t the week.

Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets) - On top of waking up nightly in a cold sweat, remembering that your second-round pick now has Zach Wilson at quarterback, this week’s game is trending to be the sloppiest of the weekend, with storm conditions throughout.

Gerald Everett (TE, Chargers) - Even in the best game state of the week, Everett is impossible to trust right now. His route participation is falling like a stone, with Donald Parham and Stone Smartt stealing snaps.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Survivor Strategy.

We’re giving you more Survivor Pool strategy help here courtesy of our friends at PoolGenius.

There are a lot of perceived layups on the board this week, with multiple double-digit favorites to choose from. Kansas City and Dallas are the chalk, and a fair amount of folks went with the 49ers on Thursday night. I also like the Jaguars here, with the Texans rolling in with cluster injuries on both sides of the ball. They’ll be my pick this week.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Here’s Week 2’s show. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

If you haven’t subscribed to 4for4, the betting subscription is the best bang for your buck. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, ranking, projection, you name it. It also gains you access to our subscriber Discord.

The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal. (Spoiler alert: there’s a Sunday Night Football play at the bottom of this newsletter…)

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

New subscribers can go to 4for4.com/plans, use promo code “WEEK2,” and get 25% off the betting subscription.

I lean under in tonight’s Steelers and Raiders matchup, but mostly I’m just looking forward to the old cutaways from 70s and 80s highlights of this matchup.

This isn’t the original video of the great John Facenda’s “The Autumn Wind”, but it’s set to Bo Jackson highlights and it’s a great 3-minute watch.

On Friday, I posted this player prop in our subscriber-only Discord:

Thanks for hanging out with me. Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use promo code “Week2” for 25% off of a betting subscription (which includes EVERYTHING on 4for4)!