🏃Sunday Morning Rundown

...Plus Answers To The Week 14 Test 🏈

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.

We’ll tackle start/sits, DFS, Survivor pool strategy, and a bit of betting as well.

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I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. The majority of the week might be a rainy and sloppy mess, but we get two absolute gems with the Bills/Chiefs and Eagles/Cowboys on Sunday evening. A rare Monday night doubleheader also leaves us with a lovely 7/4 split on the ‘main slate.’ You love to see it.

We’re getting closer and closer to the end of the season, and the weight of these decisions is even more important. We’re on the last week of byes, so you need to start dancing with the guys who brought you here. Streaming can still be an option, though.

You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.

My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.

Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. He’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.

If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.

Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.

I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.

Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day.

Here are a few names that are start-worthy today:

Justin Fields (QB, Bears)

The Lions’ pass defense has been non-existent over the past six games, and Fields has put up some gaudy fantasy numbers in his career versus Detroit, including three straight 100+ yard rushing performances.

Zack Moss (RB, Colts)

Zack Moss had an underwhelming box score last week, but the usage was absolutely elite, and he should be trusted again against a Bengals rush defense that’s been routinely gashed all season long.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, Chiefs)

With Isiah Pacecho ruled out and Jerrick McKinnon seeing his first game action in weeks due to a groin injury, CEH is in a great spot to be fantasy-relevant for the first time all season.

Jayden Reed (WR, Packers)

Christian Watson’s 15th hamstring injury in two years opens the window of opportunity for his teammates, and I think Jayden Reed offers the most upside of the group. He’ll work out of the slot, which is a great way to attack this Giants defense, and Reed’s seen the most significant jump in target share among Green Bay’s pass catchers when Watson is off the field.

Elijah Moore (WR, Browns)

Elijah Moore and Joe Flacco go together like peanut butter and jelly. Flacco peppered his former Jets’ teammate with 12 targets last week, and Moore posted 83 yards last week against the Rams. It didn’t hurt that Amari Cooper left in the 2nd quarter, but even with Cooper back in the lineup today, Moore should continue to outperform his season-to-date rates.

Brevin Jordan (TE, Texans)

Brevin Jordan got it done last week in place of Dalton Schultz, catching 3 of 4 targets for 64 yards. With Tank Dell out, Noah Brown less than 100%, and Nico Collins stuck with the Jets’ perimeter cornerbacks, there’s a path to Jordan showing out this week.

Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:

Matthew Stafford (QB, Rams)

This appears to be the worst weather of the weekend, with rain and wind likely a factor. Even in better conditions, this matchup against the Ravens pass defense is one to avoid.

Derrick Henry (RB, Titans)

D-Hember may be a thing of the past. Henry is as game-script-dependent as any running back in the league. As a massive road underdog here against Miami, I’d look to leave Henry on the bench if you have a viable option behind him. In Tennessee’s three double-digit losses this season, Henry’s best showing was 44 total yards.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, Raiders)

Davante Adams isn’t producing quite as well with Aidan O’Connell under center, but he’s still seeing a dominant share of the Raiders’ targets, especially against zone coverage. The Vikings love to blitz, and they play zone behind in, and Meyers’ target share in these splits (14%) leaves him as a touchdown-or-bust option in Week 14.

For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.

Week 15

Buh bye, BYE WEEKS!

We’re in the home stretch, and hopefully, you’re in the fantasy playoffs. If so, are you ready?!? This should help.

Each league is different, as it relates to both waiver wire rules and roster depth, so it’s difficult to make recommendations, but you should be using the time before your wire closes to look ahead because most of your league mates aren’t. Jen covers more of that here with 33 players to stash ahead of your fantasy playoff season.

It’s a two-way street around here. You can’t add anyone without cutting someone else, but fear not; we cover that for you here in this week’s Dead Weight Report.

Survivor Strategy

Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, we can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week. Hopefully, some of you are still alive and fighting in Week 12. Some of the Thanksgiving Day games (and Miami on Friday) were your best options this week (Eh, Detroit?!).

The Holy Trinity Explained:

  • Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

  • Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

  • Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Following this methodology, the top options on the board this week are the Dolphins, Saints, Texans, and Packers.

Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.

TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.

The DFS MVP Podcast Watch | Listen

We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.

Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.

Eagles @ Cowboys

We get an outstanding battle on Sunday night, with the Eagles traveling to Jerrah’s World to take on the Cowboys. This game has massive implications for the MVP race, NFC East, and overall playoff seeding as we enter the final few weeks of the season.

SharpClarke shares his thoughts here. Click the link for the full write-up, but here’s a snippet:

If you’re looking to play single-game DFS, Matt has you covered for this one.

Thanks for hanging out with me. Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans!