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- 🏝️ Survivor Picks for Week 11
TGIF, folks. After a brutal injury-filled TNF game, it’s time to pick up the pieces and head into the weekend. In today’s newsletter, I’ll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.
Q: Do you bother with a backup to your starting QB or defense when preparing for the playoffs?
A: Now is when I start to add backups to both those positions for a few reasons. First, playing the matchups can be beneficial down the stretch as we need every single point we can get in elimination-type contests. Adding an extra QB or DST is also a defensive strategy that can hinder your opponent when it dwindles down to only the playoff squads in your league. For more ideas on preparing for the postseason check out my article Gearing Up for the Playoffs on 4for4.
Q: Lions/Jaguars/Dolphins. Which mammal do you like best this week for D? Which do you like RoS? - BoDean
A: This week I prefer The King of the Jungle against the Bears at home in Detroit. For the rest of the season, give me the Jags as they’ll face a possible Joe Burrow-less Bengals in Week 13 followed by a Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns team in Week 14. Jacksonville has been low-key good for fantasy purposes as the DST15 on the season. They are tied for the fourth-most interceptions in 2023 (11) and are 12th in the NFL in fewest points allowed.
Q: Kicker question... Would you rather have Butker or Hopkins ROS? I had Hopkins but worried Browns would have fewer scoring chances with Watson out for the year so I picked up Butker. Good move? - SteelDan
A: Hopkins is the K1 in fantasy points through the first 10 weeks of the season and is 7-of-7 from beyond 50 yards. He’ll now be onto his third QB of the year in Dorian Thompson-Robinson which could impact his output moving forward or possibly not. If you’re worried, Butker is certainly a viable replacement as a set-and-forget at the kicker position. I would not hold both and play matchups though, as we need as much depth at other positions as we can get with the playoffs moving closer.
Jakobi Meyers under 38.5 receiving yards (-115 at Czrs, DK, MGM, Builder, B365)
The entire passing game has suffered as of late but Meyers may have taken the biggest hit. Over the past three weeks, he has 21, 38, and 19 receiving yards on just eight total targets. Last week we got a preview of what their offense will likely look like going forward which is a lot of Josh Jacobs and designed throws to Davante Adams. On paper Miami's overall metrics look bad but the reality is they were injured for most of the season. They finally got back Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard before the bye and played the Chiefs well, limiting Patrick Mahomes to 185 yards. None of the Chiefs wideouts even cleared 35 yards. Now they have a much easier matchup against AOC and the Raiders’ run-heavy offense.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Still alive in your survivor pool? Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.
The Holy Trinity Explained:
Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)
Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Let’s get to this week’s picks:
🐬 Miami Dolphins vs. Raiders - (Highest Spread)
Point Spread: -13.5
Win Odds: 87% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 7% (6th)
Future Value: 3rd
🦁 Detroit Lions vs. Bears (2md-Most popular)
Point Spread: -7.5
Win Odds: 78% (5th)
Popularity: 18% (2nd)
Future Value: 6th
🪖 Washington Commanders vs. Giants - (Most Popular)
Point Spread: -9.0
Win Odds: 79% (4th)
Popularity: 30% (1st)
Future Value: 19th
⚡️ LA Chargers @ Packers - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)
Point Spread: -3.0
Win Odds: 61% (10th)
Popularity: 2% (8th)
Future Value: 9th
Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.
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