💀 Target These Dead Zone RBs

Plus a hype video and some dynasty

It’s mid-July and we’ve finally reached training camp season! In today’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I navigate the RB Dead Zone and we get some insight from our friend Ryan McDowell via Dynasty League Football.

The RB Dead Zone is always a divisive area as some drafters love to scoop up the perceived value there while others avoid taking rushers in Rounds 3-7 like the plague. Before I get into my targets for 2024, I looked back at last year’s version to see how those players fared, looking for any clues to 2024.

There were 23 total RBs selected between Round 3 and Round 7 in Yahoo leagues last season. Of those 23, 11 finished the season below their ADP in terms of half-PPR points per game. When they failed, they failed big, as seven of those 11 ended the 2023 season 18 or more positional spots lower than where they were drafted.

There was some good news from the dead zone last season, however, as 11 of the RBs taken between Rounds 3-7 finished the year above their ADP with five of those ending 10 spots or more above their positional draft spot.

If you’re wondering where the 23rd player fits in, J.K. Dobbins was on the field for just one game so he doesn't count.

2024 RB ☠️ Zone Targets

↠ Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (Yahoo ADP: 38)

We’re looking at the workhorse back in a high-powered offense being selected in the fourth round. Smash that draft button.

Pacheco averaged 13.4 half-PPR points per contest last season (RB16) and had 51 red zone touches which sat sixth among all RBs. He’s underrated as a pass catcher, seeing 49 targets last season, and with Jerick McKinnon no longer in KC could see an uptick in receiving game work in 2024. He’s fast, explosive, and priced beautifully right now.

🏴‍☠️ Rachaad White, Buccaneers (Yahoo ADP: 43)

The darling of the dead zone is back again after an RB14 finish in half-PPR points per tilt, crushing his positional ADP by 16 spots. White is a bonified bellcow in Tampa Bay, as he was tied for second in rushing attempts with Christian McCaffrey (227) and saw the ninth most targets among RBs (70). White was fourth in total receptions (64) and 13th in rushing yards (990), plus his 78.1% snap share (4th) means he’s rarely taken off the football field.

You can’t find that much volume or production from a fourth-round RB very often and the Bucs offense hasn't changed enough to think it won’t happen again.

⚜️ Alvin Kamara, Saints (Yahoo ADP: 58)

Like most RBs in this range, there are pluses and minuses with Kamara. He is 29 years old but clearly has plenty left in the tank as he was the RB14 in overall half-PPR scoring last year in only 13 contests, which translated to the RB4 on a per-game basis. Kamara is valuable in any PPR scoring due to his pass-game prowess, as he saw the most targets per game of any RB last season (6.6) and still has a check-down-heavy QB at the helm in Derek Carr.

Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams will challenge for volume and will likely eat into what he saw in 2023, but Kamara’s a good option as a fantasy RB2 and is currently being drafted as the RB16.

🦁 David Montgomery, Lions (Yahoo ADP: 76)

Despite his dead zone status last season and lack of receiving work, David Montgomery ended as the RB13 in half-PPR scoring per contest. The Lions offense is clearly able to support two top-24 RBs as they’ve done it for the last two seasons, and are poised to be a high-caliber unit once again.

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At Dynasty League Football, we are so ready for training camp to kick off in the coming days. We’ve been counting down the off-season days with tons of content to help you dominate your dynasty league this year. 

Our latest series has covered a dynasty riser, faller, and a longshot for every single NFL team. Check out an example from Brandon Haye, who recently covered the Jaguars

Riser: Christian Kirk, WR

Kirk is an underrated receiver and I think with the acquisition of Calvin Ridley, many thought he would not put up big numbers. That is shown in Kirk’s ADP as it went down in May through September of 2023 but did increase with his production in the season. After his injury, the ADP has continued to go down with the additions to the wide receiver room in the off-season.

Current Market Value

Kirk’s value is listed as WR42, but I think that is way too low. In 2021, he finished as WR26 and with his first season as a Jaguar, he was WR12. Even last year if you just take average points per game, he would be WR33.

Future Outlook

Kirk should be one of the focal points of the offense again in 2024 and should go over 100 targets again. The addition of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr should help Kirk on the intermediate routes. At times, teams would sit on those routes and now there are two vertical threats to keep defenses honest. Davis has shown he is not a consistent week-to-week player. Thomas Jr will need time to develop and work through rookie growing pains. This does make a dangerous trio of receivers and I think Kirk out of the slot will continue to be a great option in the offense.

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Trade Option/Conclusion

When looking at the below trades, for Kirk, there is a mixed bag. He still has two to three good years in this offense, and I would not be ready to send out a possible top-24 wide receiver. If I am trading Kirk, he must be a part of a big upgrade at wide receiver or running back for my team.

Even though the thought of a healthy Aaron Rodgers is enticing, I like having Kirk and the young talent of Jermaine Burton. Also, I think the 2.09 for Kirk is way too low. Second-round picks are not a sure thing. I am a big fan of D’Andre Swift, but I would take the Kirk side with Jonathon Brooks. Devin Singletary is probably just a year, or two stop-gap and Brooks could move into a top 12 back if healthy. I know draft picks are what everyone wants but at 1.10 that is not high enough for me to give up Kirk and Christian McCaffrey. Especially, when one of the picks is for an aging Stefon Diggs.

  • Guess who’s back…back again. And Nick Chubb is still pretty inexpensive in all formats. For now.

  • This guy isn’t fantasy-relevant outside of possibly IDP leagues, but 49ers safety Malik Mustapha is certainly worthy of the jacked photo of the week.

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