🏈 TGIFootball

The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Friday edition, I’ll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

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Q: Do you keep a backup for your onesie positions, and if so, when do you? -Garyl J.

I try not to roster more than one at the onesie positions (QB, TE, K & DST) but there are exceptions. An early bye for a QB, particularly if others in your league have taken more than one would create a reason to grab a QB2. In one league I drafted Joe Burrow so I added another one in the event he’s not ready for Week 1, and will likely drop that QB for depth elsewhere if he plays. In cases where I drafted a rookie TE, I may also take a veteran if by chance they don’t pan out. Kicker and DST are not positions I will carry multiple.

Q: How are the Falcons going to use Tyler Algeier? - Paul 

Allgeier is coming off an impressive rookie campaign (210 carries for 1,035 yards). Yes, the Falcons drafted rookie Bijan Robinson eighth overall, however, there should still be a role for Allgeier in 2023. Atlanta will likely use Robinson a lot in his first year as a pro, but they should also look to rest him too, not to overuse him. We can expect 125 or so touches for Allgeier this season as a fantasy RB4.

Q: How's your mental health doing at the start of the season? -@_sbot_

I really like this question. This offseason seemed much longer and busier than the previous eight years since I started working in fantasy football, so a check-in isn’t a bad idea. After many months of projection and talking ADPs we finally get to sink our teeth into real football. The change from what-ifs to matchups does wonders for my psyche after writing and podcasting about the same players and outcomes for about six months. So, my mental health is in a solid spot, ready to help you all win some money and bragging rights!

Q: Ty Chandler vs. Sean Tucker? Who is a better desperation flex option in Week 1 and who has better long-term stash value rest of season? - Cal Paradisio

For Week 1 since we don’t know how usage will shake out for either one of these backup RBs, I’d say Chandler has a better shot based on possible game script. If the Vikings get up early they may want to give Chandler some reps to keep Alexander Mattison fresh. Both of these guys are stashable, Tucker is interesting because he has a chance to eat into Rashaad White’s workload if the sophomore can’t handle lead-back duties.

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Bet: Joe Mixon under 21.5 receiving yards

After heavy usage in the receiving game during the regular season, Mixon’s pass-catching role dissipated in the playoffs. He played just 15.6% of third-down snaps, while Perine played 82.2%. His routes per game also fell to just 10 per game, while Perine ran 21.3. During that stretch, he went under 21.5 receiving yards in every game despite Joe Burrow throwing the ball 32, 36, and 41 times. Even with Samaje Perine gone, the Bengals have a plan in place with Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams mixing in on third downs.

Zac Taylor has made it pretty clear Mixon won't have the third-down role this season with multiple beat writers saying that Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams be splitting that role. On top of that, those with boots on the ground have reiterated he will "absolutely not be a third-down back" because they don't trust him in pass-pro. Without third-down work, as we saw in the playoffs, consistently getting over 21.5 receiving yards is a tough ask.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Getting eliminated from a survivor pool in Week 1 is brutal, but it’s always a real possibility. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

🪺 Baltimore Ravens vs. Texans - (Safest & Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -10

• Win Odds: 79% (1st)

• Pick Popularity: 33% (1st)

• Future Value: 7th

🪖 Washington Commanders vs. Cardinals - (2nd-highest Spread & Popularity)

• Point Spread: -7

• Win Odds: 71% (2nd)

• Popularity: 24% (2nd)

• Future Value: 25th

😈 Minnesota Vikings vs. Buccaneers - (Low Future Value & 3rd Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -5.5

• Win Odds: 69% (5th)

• Popularity: 12% (3rd)

• Future Value: 26th

🐆 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Colts - (Low Popularity w/ High odds)

• Point Spread: -5

• Win Odds: 70% (3rd)

• Popularity: 6% (4th)

• Future Value: 8th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Trader's Alley Week 1: Players to Buy, Hold, and Sell

Waiver Wire Watch Week 1

Week 1 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Pick Advice (2023)

Week 1 IDP Waiver Wire: Pickups & Targets

Week 1 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Week 1 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

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