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🥥 Week 15 Survivor Picks

🥥 Week 15 Survivor Picks

Best Prop & Mailbag Action

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
December 15, 2023

Together with GameBlazers: The Next Generation of Fantasy Sports

Last night’s contest was something I can’t say we saw coming. A game with only a few fantasy-relevant pieces coming in rocked our world with a high-flying 63-21 final score. This was an absolute gem from Chargers social media after the 49-0 shutout ended in case you missed it.

we scored.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers)
3:22 AM • Dec 15, 2023

Let’s get into Friday’s version of the Deep Dive Fantasy newsletter featuring the mailbag, some survivor picks, and the latest at 4for4.com.

Q: What does m/u stand for and the colors & numbers in that column?? -rojacoco

A: In my Thursday newsletter I include a photo of the 4for4 rankings for each position. The “m/u” stands for matchup for that particular player and where that opposing defense ranks in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA to their position. The red ones are ranked the highest and are therefore the toughest, while the green ones are the softest. Here’s a small example.

Q: Why does Brock Purdy get no respect? I tried to move him in my superflex league to get better at other positions and had no takers and league-mates scoffed at my offers. (I’m glad in the end since I’m in the playoffs)- DA

A: I wish I had a solid answer for you here but I do agree there’s a lack of respect for Purdy not only in fake football but in the real realm too. The betting world has come around in recent weeks, though, as the QB’s odds to win league MVP is now second among candidates (+185 on DraftKings) after Dak Prescott.

As far as fantasy goes. the former last pick in the NFL Draft currently sits as the QB5 in both overall and fantasy points per contest. Purdy has thrown the third-most passing yards (3,553), and second-most touchdowns (25), and boasts the highest completion percentage in the league so far this season (70.2%). Some people just can’t get past draft capital and it appears to be the case with Purdy. Crown him. 🏆

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Desmond Ridder under 185 passing yards (-114 at FD, WOULD STILL PLAY WIDELY AVAILABLE 181 DK, CZRS, Builder etc)

Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers’ pass defense has been playing well. They are allowing just 162 passing yards per game and only one QB has cleared 190 passing yards in 7 weeks. That includes games against CJ Stroud (140 passing yards) and Dak Prescott (189 passing yards)! It's not just because they are getting their teeth kicked in and opposing teams don't need to throw anymore, their pass defense is 12th in success rate, 3rd in explosive pass rate, and 12th in EPA per dropback. Now we factor in that the Falcons love to run the ball and are coming off a game where they opened up a bit and got burned against the Bucs. I expect an extremely run-centric gameplan here against Carolina. The last time they played in Week 1, it was tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter and Ridder finished with just 115 passing yards on 21 pass attempts. With the Panthers remaining extremely run-heavy on their own end and incapable of sustaining consistent offense, this figures to be neutral or positive game script for Atlanta for the entire game. Even if the Falcons do fall behind, I expect them to lean on the run to maintain offense as we have seen in years past.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections for those of you still fighting in your pools.

The Holy Trinity Explained: