- Deep Dive Fantasy
- Posts
- š³ļø Week 3 NFL Picks
The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season! In this Friday edition, Iāll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allenās bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.
*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!
Q: How excited/unenthused are you for this new duo in Minnesota? - Zac M.
I lean more toward the unenthused side for a few reasons. One, the current situation of the Vikingsā offensive line is less than desirable. Alexander Mattison has not been very efficient thus far and Cam Akers has had some decent spurts in the past, but considering he was dealt to Minnesota for a candy bar and some lint, itās tough to think heāll be too fantasy-relevant in this pass-heavy offense.
Q: Iām in a super deep Superflex league. All the relevant backup QBs are rostered (Gardner Minshew, Mitch Trubisky, etc.). Who are some sleeper QBs I can stash in the event a current starting QB gets injured or benched? - Johnny Hungree
I assume that if the guys you mentioned are taken then Jacoby Brissett and Sam Darnold are too, so letās go a bit deeper. The Falconsā Taylor Heinicke is a solid stash considering Desmond Ridder hasnāt exactly lit the NFL on fire to start the season. Jarrett Stidham has the confidence nod from HC Sean Payton, Jagsā QB C.J. Beathard has shown some poise and skill with the 49ers in the past, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Cleveland was an exciting preseason standout. Thereās always Jamies Winston who may cost you a bottle of antacids if he comes into play, but he can also post league-winning numbers, too.
Q: Would you make this deal?
Give Gibbs
Get Devonta Smith
My team:
Herbert
Pollard, Gibbs, Kelley, Ford, Warren, Taylor (IR), Jwj (IR)
Metcalf, DJ Moore, Lockett, G. Davis, London, Toney
Andrews, Henry -
That trade would leave you pretty thin at RB and it's rough out there in the backfield streets. However, Smith would elevate your WR room so if you are willing to rotate an RB2 committee then I would do it.
Q: With Jamaal Williams injured and Kendre Miller making his debut this week, how would you rank the Saints backfield ROS? Is this the time to buy low on Alvin Kamara? - Jarod Farver
Itās definitely time to buy low on Kamara because heāll be back in Week 4 and should presumably take on the lead-back role for New Orleans. Williamsā injury is a hamstring which can be tricky and Miller is just returning from an injury himself. Weāve been fooled by Tony Jones before so itās tough to be too confident in getting much from him from a fantasy perspective. ROS, Iād rank them Kamara (RB2), Williams (RB3/4), Miller (RB5), and Jones (RB6).
Together With Mojo
Mojo Fantasy: The Fantasy App That Lets You Make Moves DURING THE GAME
Download Mojo Fantasy today and use my code BETSPERTS for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Are you tired of being stuck with a bad pick in fantasy? With Mojo Fantasy, you can buy and sell player props LIVE, ALL GAME LONG. That's right, you can make moves after the game starts! So if your player gets off to a hot start, you can cash in. Or if they start to struggle, you can cut your losses.
Mojo Fantasy is available on the Apple App Store and debuts in AR, CA, FL, GA, IL, KS, MN, NE, NM, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SD, TX, DC, WV, WI, WY.
Every Friday 4for4ās Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekendās games.
James Conner under 56.5 rushing yards (-115 DK/MGM/CZRS/B365)
The Cowboys are #1 in Run D DVOA and allowing just 3.56 yards per carry despite playing against Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and Dalvin Cook. Neither Cook nor Hall even crossed 10 rushing yards. The Cardinals have the 5th-worst adjusted line yards per carry (3.26) according to FO, just one spot ahead of the Jets who were stymied by the Cowboys last week and more than a full yard worse than the Giants. The matchup is super tough but Conner also faces massive game script concerns. The Cardinals were winning against the Giants for a big portion of the game and were competitive against Washington. I would be flabbergasted if that is the case here. Maybe they try to run the ball to start but it seems unlikely they have much success, and if they fall behind by 2+ scores as the spread suggests, it's unlikely they stick with it.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Getting eliminated from a survivor pool in Week 3 isnāt ideal, but itās always a real possibility. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the āholy trinityā of analysis to make educated selections each week.
The Holy Trinity Explained:
Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)
Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Letās get to this weekās picks:
š¹ Kansas City Chiefs vs. Bears - (Most Popular)
Point Spread: -13.0
Win Odds: 87% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 22% (1st)
Future Value: 3rd
āļø Dallas Cowboys @ Cardinals - (Tied for Highest Spread)
Point Spread: -13.0
Win Odds: 85% (2nd)
Popularity: 18% (3rd)
Future Value: 1st
š Jacksonville Jaguars @ Texans - (2nd Most Popular)
Point Spread: -8.5
Win Odds: 78% (4th)
Popularity: 21% (2nd)
Future Value: 10th
šŖŗ Baltimore Ravens vs. Colts - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)
Point Spread: -7.5
Win Odds: 78% (5th)
Popularity: 6% (5th)
Future Value: 8th
Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. Thereās always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.
Still havenāt become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use JEN10 for 10% off any subscription!